SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

[Triad]

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - A new and unusual strain of swine flu is likely widespread and impossible to contain at this point, experts agree.

The H1N1 strain has killed at least 20 people and possibly 48 more in Mexico and has been confirmed in at least eight people in the United States, all of whom had mild illness.

Probable cases also were found at a school in the New York City borough of Queens and experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say they fully expect to find more cases. Here is why:

* This new strain of influenza has shown it can spread easily from person to person.

* It has been found in several places and among people who had no known contact. This suggests there is an unseen chain of infection and that the virus has been spreading quietly.

* This can happen because respiratory illnesses are very common and doctors rarely test patients for flu. People could have had the swine virus and never known it.

* At least in the United States, it has so far only been found in people who had mild illness, another factor that would have allowed it to spread undetected.

* World Health Organization director Dr. Margaret Chan has said the new strain of H1N1 has the potential to become a pandemic strain because it does spread easily and does cause serious disease.

* CDC experts note that while it is possible to contain an outbreak of disease that is in one limited area, once it is reported in widespread locations, the spread is impossible to control. (For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click on [nFLU]) (Editing by Xavier Briand)

Reuters AlertNet - SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

MEXICO CITY/GENEVA (Reuters) - A new flu that has killed up to 68 people in Mexico could start a global epidemic, the World Health Organization warned on Saturday, as tests showed the strain might be spreading in the United States.

Mexico's crowded capital, where most of the deaths happened and home to some 20 million people, hunkered down in fear of the swine flu.

Tests confirmed that eight New York City schoolchildren had a type A influenza virus that was likely to be the swine flu, the city's health commissioner said. Kansas state health officials confirmed two cases of swine flu, CNN reported, adding to the original eight cases in the United States.

Officials from WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention helped Mexican health experts test hundreds of patients with flu symptoms for the never-before-seen virus.

In Mexico City, parents canceled kids' parties, bars were closed and residents stocked up on DVDs as people stayed home for the weekend to avoid contamination.

"I think it's worse than they're telling us," said 35-year-old Lidia Diaz, sniffling and wearing a surgical mask as she headed to a clinic in the capital.

Flu pandemic concern grows with more U.S. cases | Reuters

IOW they have no control over it, they don't really know what it is, its human to human transmitable, its fatal and non-fatal , and its spreading rapidly.

Captain Trips

 

[Goshin]

This is very worrisome. The CDC has been warning for some time that we're overdue for a pandemic, in which possibly millions could die. Billions more could be sickened, and disruption of vital services is possible.

If you're not already prepared to last at least three weeks without resupply and without going out in public, better get prepped fast. When the general public starts to panic, the store shelves will empty quickly.

Surgical-grade n95 masks and rubber gloves, and Lysol or bleach solution, would also be good.

G.

 

[quatrotritikali]

Yes, this is scary. :shock: This outbreak seemed to just appear "out of the blue"...but it has been silently incubating for weeks in people. The WHO and the CDC have no idea where Ground Zero is for this virus...so they have no idea how many people were possibly infected. It is spreading like ripples across a pond.

If this virus takes hold in the U.S. -- and if the govt. has to mandate that public places like libraries, schools, theatres, and such be closed...this will certainly cause a mass panic.

These surgical-grade n95 masks...are they effective enough? Can they be purchased at medical supply stores?

 

[Goshin]

These surgical-grade n95 masks...are they effective enough? Can they be purchased at medical supply stores?

"Dust masks" are a lower grade and will not do, btw. Yes they can be had online or in medical supply stores. Get the ones with the exhalation valves, the ones without them suck to wear. It's worth the extra cost.

N100's would be better but they are FAR more expensive. Still and all, the best way not to get infected is stay home and don't go out in public or around other people, during the heavier "waves" of the pandemic. IIRC the hypothetical H5N1 pandemic was expected to come in three or four "waves", lasting 3-4 weeks each with a lull of two to six months in between "waves". The "wave" duration is based on how long it takes between getting infected and becoming infectious or symptomatic.

Better be able to bunker up for at least a month at a time.

G.

 

[Orion]

The articles contained no info. about who is susceptible and how lethal it is. It could be just the latest strain of the flu which is constantly changing anyway. (Which is why vaccines are made every year to combat new flu strains in the aging population.)

If it's like any other flu virus, the most susceptible people will be the elderly and the very young or those with compromised immune systems. If it does reach pandemic proportions, it's not going to kill everyone, but those who are susceptible need to stay out of harms way.

 

[celticlord]

The articles contained no info. about who is susceptible and how lethal it is. It could be just the latest strain of the flu which is constantly changing anyway. (Which is why vaccines are made every year to combat new flu strains in the aging population.)

If it's like any other flu virus, the most susceptible people will be the elderly and the very young or those with compromised immune systems. If it does reach pandemic proportions, it's not going to kill everyone, but those who are susceptible need to stay out of harms way.

FACTBOX: How swine flu spreads in humans | Reuters

(Reuters) - A new strain of influenza is infecting people in Mexico and the United States and may have killed up to 60 people in Mexico, global health officials said on Friday.

The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.

Here are some facts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about how swine flu spreads in humans:

* Swine flu viruses typically sicken pigs, not humans. Most cases occur when people come in contact with infected pigs or contaminated objects moving from people to pigs.

* Pigs can catch human and avian or bird flu. When flu viruses from different species infect pigs, they can mix inside the pig and new, mixed viruses can emerge.

* Pigs can pass mutated viruses back to humans and they can be passed from human to human. Transmission among humans is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu -- by touching something with flu viruses and then touching their mouth or nose, and through coughing or sneezing.

* Symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to those of seasonal influenza -- sudden fever, coughing, muscle aches and extreme fatigue. This new strain also appears to cause more diarrhea and vomiting than normal flu.

* Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu although the CDC is formulating one. The seasonal influenza vaccine may help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses, like the one circulating now.

* People cannot catch swine flu from eating pork or pork products. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160 degrees Fahrenheit (71 degrees Celsius) kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

 

[quatrotritikali]

On the 10pm news here in Arkansas, it is being reported that this new swine flu outbreak has appeared in more US states. Confirmed cases are now being reported in California, Texas, Kansas, New York, Minnesota, and Massachusetts.

New Virus Could Be Deadly
=======================================================

from Reuters: ""We are worried and because we are worried we are acting aggressively on a number of fronts," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat told reporters. "The situation is serious."

In Mexico, most of the dead were aged 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults.

Global flu epidemic fear rises, more U.S. cases | U.S. | Reuters

 

[StandUpChuck]

On the 10pm news here in Arkansas, it is being reported that this new swine flu outbreak has appeared in more US states. Confirmed cases are now being reported in California, Texas, Kansas, New York, Minnesota, and Massachusetts.

Oh. Well, that's a little close to home. :shock: I'm not gonna freak out or anything, but thank you for the update.

 

[Orion]

I researched a little bit more and discovered that most of the people who have died so far have in fact been healthy adults, not the elderly or infirm. If this spreads it could become a real crisis.

 

[celticlord]

I researched a little bit more and discovered that most of the people who have died so far have in fact been healthy adults, not the elderly or infirm. If this spreads it could become a real crisis.

Key word here is IF. While sensible precautions like extra attention to hand-washing and other aspects of daily hygiene are appropriate, this is not yet a repeat of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, or even the 1968-69 swine flu pandemic. This isn't even on a par with the SARS outbreak of recent memory. Not yet; with luck, it will not reach anything like those levels.

It's worrisome, but not yet scary.

 

[quatrotritikali]

With the 68 confirmed deaths in Mexico from this virus, the mortality rate would be approx. 6%

That percentage is certain to rise, given the fact that people are still dying, more cases are being reported, the rapid spread cannot be contained due to the widespread outbreaks (Ground Zero cannot even be determined), and there are no vaccines available for this swine flu virus.

The virus is being transmitted only from human-to-human, not animals. This makes the virus airborne.

 

[Orion]

I know... and I'm not suggesting anyone panic, I'm just saying it has the potential to be serious. Also, as an aside, handwashing isn't the best method of preventing the flu. Wearing a face mask (SARS style) is. The flu attaches to membranes in the nose and in the lungs and is transported by the respiratory tract. If someone with it, even as a carrier, coughs and you inhale that, you're likely to be infected.

The swine variety differs slightly because it has a longer incubation rate so carriers can spread it farther before they succumb to symptoms and quarantine themselves. This means the number of infectees are higher than the reported numbers, they just haven't surfaced yet.

 

[celticlord]

My Way News - Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Cold comfort to Mexico, but thus far the stats indicate the virus is more lethal south of the border. No good explanation for this yet.

 

[quatrotritikali]

Quebec health aide denies Montreal swine flu quarantine reports
By Montreal Gazette, Montreal GazetteApril 25, 2009 4:42 PM


A top aide to Quebec's health minister is refusing Saturday afternoon to confirm a report that two sick Montrealers recently returned from Mexico are being quarantined in a West Island hospital in wake of swine-flu fears.

A CTV Montreal web report this afternoon quotes the communications director of Lakeshore General Hospital, Louis-Pascal Cyr, as confirming two quarantines.

But Marie-Ève Bédard, an aide to Health Minister Guy Bolduc, refused this afternoon in an interview with The Gazette to confirm or deny the report.

And Cyr said he couldn't talk anymore. Bédard did say, however, that only one person is involved in this West Island incident, without offering any other elaboration. A Gazette reporter is on the way to the Lakeshore this afternoon to sort out the confusion. But the government says it wants to stress that there still aren¹t any confirmed cases of swine flu in Quebec.

Outside Quebec, the World Health Organization is holding emergency meetings today to look at assess pandemic risks, with more than 20 deaths in Mexico confirmed to be linked to a new swine-flu strain known as A N1N1. More than 1,000 people in Mexico have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms in recent days. The mayor of Mexico has cancelled all public events for 10 days.

Montreal swine flu fears unfounded: report

==================================================

UK crew member in hospital after Mexico flight
25 Apr 2009 21:55:53 GMT


By Avril Ormsby LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - A British Airways cabin crew member was taken to a London hospital as a precaution after developing flu-like symptoms on a flight from Mexico City, the airline said on Saturday. It was the first such reported precautionary measure in Britain since the emergence of a new flu strain that has killed up to 68 people in Mexico. It has also infected at least 11 people in the United States. The man has undergone tests, but the results are not expected back until Sunday. No other crew members or passengers on the BA242 flight into Heathrow airport were detained. "He has flu-like symptoms and is responding well to treatment," a hospital spokesman said in a statement. "The patient was admitted directly to a side room and the hospital is scrupulously following infection control procedures to ensure there is no risk to any other individual in the hospital." A Health Protection Agency (HPA) spokesman said in a statement: "We are aware of a patient admitted to a London hospital with reported travel history to Mexico. "As a precautionary measure the patient is being tested for a range of respiratory and other illnesses in line with UK health guidance. "At present there have been no confirmed cases of human swine flu in the UK or anywhere in Europe." The new flu strain -- a mixture of swine, human and avian flu viruses -- is still poorly understood and the situation is evolving quickly, the World Health Organisation said. (Reporting by Avril Ormsby; Editing by Ralph Boulton and Maggie Fox)

Reuters AlertNet - UK crew member in hospital after Mexico flight
======================================================

======================================================

 

[celticlord]

Mexico?s Calderon Declares Emergency Amid Swine Flu Outbreak - Bloomberg.com

Mexico City’s international airport, which handles about 70,000 passengers each day, is operating normally, said Victor Mejia, a spokesman. Passengers are given a questionnaire asking if they have flu symptoms and recommending they cancel their trip and see a doctor if they do. The measures are voluntary, Mejia said, and no case of swine flu in airport passengers, workers or visitors has been confirmed.

This is the real concern. If this virus has been incubating in Mexico City for the past few days, there are as many as 200,000 potential carriers of the virus traveling to all parts of the world; even if just 1% of those travellers acquired the virus, it has already been distributed worldwide.

 

[Triad]

Key word here is IF. While sensible precautions like extra attention to hand-washing and other aspects of daily hygiene are appropriate, this is not yet a repeat of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, or even the 1968-69 swine flu pandemic. This isn't even on a par with the SARS outbreak of recent memory. Not yet; with luck, it will not reach anything like those levels.

It's worrisome, but not yet scary.

Its the reaction to the IF that concerns me.
Specifically in dealings with cases of outbreak.
Where are those kids in NYC at for example..home?

More then likely it will be stopped etc..but then that 'IF' comes up and I'm shooting Zombies from my roof in a week. :chew:

 

[George VI]

22 students, and 3 teachers from Rangitoto College in New Zealand just returned from Mexico, at least 6 have flu-like symptons. New Zealand, could be the 4th country infected . As far as we know, the United Kingdom has 1 case. This is worrying to me, as my older cousin goes to Rangitoto, and his family lives very close by to the school.

3 News - Auckland students being tested for swine flu

 

[Duke]

Oh crap, this looks like it could be pretty bad... Oh wait, I'm on a barely populated island in the middle of the ocean. Cool.

Those are pretty much the actual thoughts that ran through my mind when I read about this.

The Duke of Internal Monologue

 

[Blunt]

When people are carrying the flu virus, they cough and sneeze, the virus gets onto their hands, they then pass on a dirty piece of cloth (Money) to others and that is a way that people get infected,if you handle money wash your hands

 

[Infinite Chaos]

UK crew member in hospital after Mexico flight
25 Apr 2009 21:55:53 GMT


By Avril Ormsby LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - A British Airways cabin crew member was taken to a London hospital as a precaution after developing flu-like symptoms on a flight from Mexico City, the airline said on Saturday. It was the first such reported precautionary measure in Britain since the emergence of a new flu strain that has killed up to 68 people in Mexico. --

He doesn't have swine flu.

Northwick Park Hospital said a BA worker who arrived from Mexico City and fell ill does not have swine flu.

BBC Link

So far 81 are now confirmed dead but only 20 had the virus.

 

[celticlord]

When people are carrying the flu virus, they cough and sneeze, the virus gets onto their hands, they then pass on a dirty piece of cloth (Money) to others and that is a way that people get infected,if you handle money wash your hands

Reminds me of Frank Herbert's The White Plague, where money was turned into a bioterror weapon.

 

[Kali]

It is common sense wash your hands people and hope for the best. I am not ready to rush out and buy a mask just yet

 

[Kandahar]

Oh crap, this looks like it could be pretty bad... Oh wait, I'm on a barely populated island in the middle of the ocean. Cool.

Those are pretty much the actual thoughts that ran through my mind when I read about this.

The Duke of Internal Monologue

The Pacific Islands were among the hardest hit places in the world during the 1918 flu pandemic, where 10-30% of the population died.

 

[Duke]

The Pacific Islands were among the hardest hit places in the world during the 1918 flu pandemic, where 10-30% of the population died.

Oh s**t, I soiled myself again. Thanks a lot Kandahar!

Point is, it took a while to get here. I'm only out here for a month longer, then it's back to my secret lair. Ought to be enough. Plus, I'm Mexican, we've got hearty immune systems... Wait, this started in Mexico City you say? Oh...
I'm not really worried about the whole thing.


The Duke of Nonchalance

 

[ludahai]

Key word here is IF. While sensible precautions like extra attention to hand-washing and other aspects of daily hygiene are appropriate, this is not yet a repeat of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, or even the 1968-69 swine flu pandemic. This isn't even on a par with the SARS outbreak of recent memory. Not yet; with luck, it will not reach anything like those levels.

It's worrisome, but not yet scary.

Since you brought this up, I have two comments here - one positive and one not.

Positive: Mexico's authorities have acted in a far more responsible manner than China's did, giving us a chance to fight this early on.

Not positive: This seems to transmit more easily than SARS did. For all the fear that SARS caused, it never really spread that readily.