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Thread: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    REALLY. Did you actually just say that? I'm flabbergasted that you don't think that geography, the condition of the targets and other important information is relevant to the feasibility of such a mission.

    I'm not quite sure what to say to that. Stunningly ignorant to say the absolute least.



    And yet you don't think about how that's related to the feasibility of it all?



    You seem to argue that an air strike is indeed feasible. If you didn't, you wouldn't be trying to refute me.

    A basic simple calculation is all you really need to do. Take their air assets, take the necessary weapons load, distance and expected defenses and compute. What is difficult is throwing in the factors of multiple methods of attack. Hence why I didn't do it because I can't compute that nor do I know what else Israel can do except for a nuclear cruise missile strike, which by the way, is probably the only feasible method to stop Iran in its tracks.



    But it was a very important and central argument you made. Essentially you argued that it was one of the key tools to exploiting the vulnerabilities in Iran's relatively obsolete SAM defense network. Except that Israel likely won't be able to leverage it.



    One has to wonder if you read your own post. It was a key assumption and inference in your initial post.



    Neither of us can prove? Explain to me on the basis of physics how increasing the weight of a plane significently does not change its behavior in a medium. This outta be good.



    By that measure, none of us can talk about a myriad of subjects. Good job, you just killed online discussion!



    Did you read your own posts?



    Join the club.



    Indeed it does. But Israel does not have the ECM capabilities to blanket the entire country with ECM. It's questionable if the US could do it short of having air supremacy.



    Except that you argued that I was wrong about the mission not being feasible and wrong on the basis of Israel's ECM capabilities. Furthermore, I specifically was talking in the context of the wide geographic regions. Saying I was wrong on the basis of ECM in that context logically concludes you think that Israel can blanket much of the country. No claims and inferences my ***.



    To stop Iran's program entirely, yes.



    Interesting. You fail to refute what I state, so now you hope to utilize the fallacy of poisoning the well. If you think I'm so wrong, prove it by refuting what I say, not trying to fallaciously argue that I'm wrong on the basis of who I am.

    That's two fallacies you've used and poorly tried to hide.

    How many more will you make in this thread?



    Never implied anything my ***. You directly said I was wrong on the basis of maneuverability, decoy saturation and ECM all in the context of the geographical range of targets Israel would need to hit. No claims and inferences my ***.



    So you saying that I was wrong about the problems of such an operation that Israel could in fact leverage specific traits and skills it had in such an operation to succeed in such an operation was you specifically not talking about an operation?

    Are you OJ Simpson? "If I did it...."



    See above.



    If I'm so full of ****, why can't you disprove me?



    No claims of expertise, yet you cite specific assets Israel has, coordinated attacks by various branches of its military and specifics on Iran's air defense network.

    No claims of expertise or authority? Really?



    Indeed. You never directly said it. You just said I was wrong on the basis of Israel's ECM capacity when I was talking about the wide geographic targets they'd need to hit. Apparently you think I'm wrong because Israel has ECM capacity to blanket the ENTIRE country something relatively few nations such as the US have the capacity to do.

    Sure you never said it. You just said I was wrong on the basis of it in the context of the massive area of coverage needed.



    Perhaps you should reread your posts for what you actually stated.
    My argument is and always has been the following...

    You cannot claim authoritatively that the Israeli Air Force lacks such capabilities because you do not possess the requisite knowledge and expertise to make statements to that effect.

    Furthermore, I have never argued that they are capable of such nor have I argued they are incapable of such; I do not know and neither do you; therefore your reference to "fantasy land" will be disregarded as uninformed speculation.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Do I think an air strike is feasable? Yes, but only with certain caveats and assumptions.

    Let us suppose for the sake of illustration that such an event is given the green light. Would an air strike be feasible? Yes, but not optimal. No matter the methodology, one can be certain that Iran would counter-attack with both symmetric and asymmetric assets. If this is the certain eventuality, why initially strike in a manner that is less than optimal?

    I personally would strike using drones, subs (SLCMs) and Jericho-4 strategic missiles. The question then becomes one of warhead. Bunker-buster or low yield nuclear? The former is not guaranteed to do the damage necessary, but BBs may convince the Iranian's to respond in-kind with strictly conventional weaponry. Low yield nuclear warheads would be optimal, but Iran would certainly respond with C/B Shahab-3 attacks.

    I would hold the IAF in reserve to disuade any neighbors with silly ideas. Israel now has X-band radar guarding the approaches plus a squadron of AWACs. State-of-the-art Arrow and Patriot anti-missile batteries. There is also a new tactical anti-missile system intended to intercept Hizb'Allah rocketry.

    Israel has stated quite clearly that she will preempt rather than allow Iran to field a nuclear arsenal. If history is any indicator, this is no mere bluff. Israel long ago positioned a SURVSAT (surveillance satellite) over Iran. The Mossad had human assets within the Syrian nuclear facility (whose photographs finally convinced Bush and US intel analysts), and I have little doubt that the Mossad has also infiltrated the Iranian nuclear universe.

    The only wild-card left is the US and Iran speaking directly. But time is running out. The IAEA and western analysts now feel that the Iranian program has reached a "breakthrough" point. There are only three end-game possibilities. A) Successful diplomacy. B) A nuclear armed Iran. C) Preemption.

    Both A and B are time-dependent. C is time-intolerant. Do the napkin math.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    I fail to see why any of you even bother.
    Firstly, do you truly believe Isreal will attack Iran if the US doesnt publicly promise support?
    Secondly, Isreal, even with US help which Obama will NEVER give, cannot defeat Iran. NATO and the UN will not allow the United States to tear the Middle East apart with war. Though they can do little about it in terms of direct action against the US without damaging the world economy, President Obama will not risk pissing off NATO or the UN.
    And finally, without US support, Israel cannot defeat Iran. You forget, Iran has allies too.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    I apologize for repeating the point about Israel's inability to defeat Iran.
    My mistake.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Quote Originally Posted by Maxientius View Post
    I apologize for repeating the point about Israel's inability to defeat Iran. My mistake.
    I highly doubt that Israel has any intention of "defeating" Iran. The goals of any preemption are limited in scope and breadth.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    um okay yeah.
    if Israel strikes in a preemtive attack the U.S., U.N., and NATO will not protect you. You will have started a war. One that, granted agree needs to be started, but as long as the U.S., U.N., and NATO take a pacifist approach to dealing with Iran then any preeemptive attack would result simply in your slaughter at the hands of the militarily superior forces of Iran and likely any Middle Eastern country that disagrees with the Western influence they believe we force upon through you.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Quote Originally Posted by Maxientius View Post
    ....then any preeemptive attack would result simply in your slaughter at the hands of the militarily superior forces of Iran and likely any Middle Eastern country that disagrees with the Western influence they believe we force upon through you.
    Militarily superior forces of Iran? wtf? You live in a fantasy world. In addition, most Arab nations would applaud a preemptive strike on Iran by anyone.

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    fyi Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Quote Originally Posted by Tashah View Post
    Militarily superior forces of Iran? wtf? You live in a fantasy world. In addition, most Arab nations would applaud a preemptive strike on Iran by anyone.
    The IDF maintains approximately 168,000 active troops and an additional 408,000 reservists.

    Iran has about 545,000 active troops. Iran also has around 350,000 Reserve Force totaling around 900,000 trained troops
    Iran has a paramilitary, volunteer militia force within the IRGC, called the Basij, which includes about 90,000 full-time, active-duty uniformed members. Up to 11 million men and women are members of the Basij who could potentially be called up for service; GlobalSecurity.org estimates Iran could mobilize "up to one million men". This would be among the largest troop mobilizations in the world

    Technologically, Israel is superior, but militarily, Iran has a vast superiority in numbers that your superior technology cannot compensate for.
    The only way a preemptive strike does not get you crushed and slaughtered is if you can effectively cripple the majority of the Iranian ability to deploy its vast military force. This seems unlikely.

    Additionally, the Middle Eastern countries, despite their despisement of Iran, disagree more with the influence that the Western Powers (and in the case of the U.S., Western Super Power) have in their region. When it came to war they would likely support the superior force. Which, without Western Aid, is Iran.

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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Quote Originally Posted by Maxientius View Post
    The IDF maintains approximately 168,000 active troops and an additional 408,000 reservists.

    Iran has about 545,000 active troops. Iran also has around 350,000 Reserve Force totaling around 900,000 trained troops
    Iran has a paramilitary, volunteer militia force within the IRGC, called the Basij, which includes about 90,000 full-time, active-duty uniformed members. Up to 11 million men and women are members of the Basij who could potentially be called up for service; GlobalSecurity.org estimates Iran could mobilize "up to one million men". This would be among the largest troop mobilizations in the world

    Technologically, Israel is superior, but militarily, Iran has a vast superiority in numbers that your superior technology cannot compensate for.
    The only way a preemptive strike does not get you crushed and slaughtered is if you can effectively cripple the majority of the Iranian ability to deploy its vast military force. This seems unlikely.

    Additionally, the Middle Eastern countries, despite their despisement of Iran, disagree more with the influence that the Western Powers (and in the case of the U.S., Western Super Power) have in their region. When it came to war they would likely support the superior force. Which, without Western Aid, is Iran.
    In both the yom kippur war and the 6 day war Israel was outnumbered with troops by more than 2 to 1. They won both conflicts fairly decisively.

    Your speculation of what the Arab countries would do is just that: speculation.

    Additonally, the Israelis maintain the IDF which consists of approximately 3 million men and woman fit for military duty.
    Last edited by scourge99; 04-29-09 at 05:23 PM.
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    Re: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites

    Quote Originally Posted by scourge99 View Post
    In both the yom kippur war and the 6 day war Israel was outnumbered with troops by more than 2 to 1. They won both conflicts fairly decisively.

    Your speculation of what the Arab countries would do is just that: speculation.
    Is this either of these wars?
    Sadly, no. Israel is no great and powerful military country that can simply defeat a superior force. A preemptive strike by Israel would bring the wrath of Iran and the several powers which strongly support its goal of achieving nuclear power. Most notably China and Russia. And, to a lesser extent, North Korea.

    With just under 600,000 soliders, Israel is outnumbered (assuming Iran mobilizes 1 million troops) 4 to 1. (If they mobilize the entire Basij then it becomes 11 million and Israel stands absolutely no chance.

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