Obama suggests recession easing [EDIT]

[kaya'08]

BBC NEWS | Business | Obama suggests recession easing

US President Barack Obama has said there are "signs of economic progress" but underlined that times remain tough.

Separately Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke talked of "tentative signs" that the contraction rate was calming.

But both men, speaking independently to students, said recovery would take time and more job losses would follow.

The Obamarama has suggested the reccession is easing. If this is true, i see no such thing, infact i see everything getting worse. Chances are he has economic statistics on his desk in the oval office we havent had the chance to get our hands on yet that proves his case, but i havent seen any evidence of it.

He also said 2009 would be a hard year for the US economy, when there would be more job losses, more repossessions and "more pain before it ends".

This doesnt seem to me like job losses, more repossessions and pain will pave the way for recovery, it just sounds like it will exagerate the problem, otherwise the cause of this entire meltdown would have well been gone and done with by now, considering we have seen alot of job losses and pain over the past year or so.

Just comforting words, or do they have real substance?

 

[celticlord]

RealClearMarkets - AP - Markets - Apr 14, 2009 - Wholesale prices fall unexpectedly in March

Defiance is nice....retail sales would be nicer. Dear Leader apparently isn't spending enough of my money.:roll:

 

[DarkWizard12]

If the recession is easing, does this mean that we can quit having our tax dollars spent on trillion $ bailouts and bonuses now?

 

[celticlord]

If the recession is easing, does this mean that we can quit having our tax dollars spent on trillion $ bailouts and bonuses now?

Probably means doubling down on the bonuses for Wall Street's wizards and their "rescuing" of the economy....:doh

 

[kaya'08]

RealClearMarkets - AP - Markets - Apr 14, 2009 - Wholesale prices fall unexpectedly in March

Defiance is nice....retail sales would be nicer. Dear Leader apparently isn't spending enough of my money.:roll:

Oh, dont worry. It is. For example, by American clauses, Obama concerts, White house dogs. Petrol for that monstrosity he drives around in. Telegram thingy's.

 

[kaya'08]

If the recession is easing, does this mean that we can quit having our tax dollars spent on trillion $ bailouts and bonuses now?

No, apparently things are going to be pretty much the same this year as stated in the article (pain, job losses), yet that seems to be an indication of recovery. :roll:

Obama is my homie, but i dunno on this one.

 

[Scarecrow Akhbar]

Well, let's see, what did Obie say?..

...oh, yeah. One of things he said was that in a recession, families tend to start cutting back on their purchases and therefore to keep the economy going the government has to steal money from the families and make purchases with that money to keep things rolling. He didn't use those exact words, but that's what he was trying to say. I think his teleprompter wasn't working as well as I would have liked it to be.

what else did he say?...

yeah, that....that in times of recession government has to keep things rolling by enacting - and he used this exact word - "temporary" increases in government spending. I don't know how his teleprompter writers define "temporary", but I tend to think that "never expires" doesn't match up too well.

Then he said this real doozy. Did you know that the US government deficits are caused by "out of control health care costs"? What's Obie's solution to this amazing revelation? Why, to nationalize America's health care industry and thereby put those out of control costs on the government's budget. But....if those costs weren't on the budget, how can they be the cause of the national deficits, as Obie claims?

How stupid do those people think their voters are?

I think people who voted for Obama had to be pretty damn stupid.

Looks like the Obama Teleprompter Team concurs.

 

[DarkWizard12]

...oh, yeah. One of things he said was that in a recession, families tend to start cutting back on their purchases and therefore to keep the economy going the government has to steal money from the families and make purchases with that money to keep things rolling. He didn't use those exact words, but that's what he was trying to say. I think his teleprompter wasn't working as well as I would have liked it to be.

That's exactly what I got out of it.

And yet, people think this is a good idea! Damn, how the **** can anyone support this ****? I'd like to see any of the democrats here talk about my tax-cut that I am supposed to get since I make nowhere near 250, 150, or even 50k a year!

 

[Harshaw]

BBC NEWS | Business | Obama suggests recession easing


The Obamarama has suggested the reccession is easing. If this is true, i see no such thing, infact i see everything getting worse.

Where are you looking? It's going to ease here before it does anywhere else.

 

[Kandahar]

BBC NEWS | Business | Obama suggests recession easing


The Obamarama has suggested the reccession is easing. If this is true, i see no such thing, infact i see everything getting worse. Chances are he has economic statistics on his desk in the oval office we havent had the chance to get our hands on yet that proves his case, but i havent seen any evidence of it.



This doesnt seem to me like job losses, more repossessions and pain will pave the way for recovery, it just sounds like it will exagerate the problem, otherwise the cause of this entire meltdown would have well been gone and done with by now, considering we have seen alot of job losses and pain over the past year or so.

Just comforting words, or do they have real substance?

The stock market does seem to have bottomed out (hopefully). That's a leading indicator...which makes me think that the economy as a whole will probably hit bottom sometime this summer and then slowly start to rebound (assuming that the stock market actually has bottomed). Unemployment is a lagging indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if it continued to rise into next year.

 

[Kandahar]

Then he said this real doozy. Did you know that the US government deficits are caused by "out of control health care costs"? What's Obie's solution to this amazing revelation? Why, to nationalize America's health care industry and thereby put those out of control costs on the government's budget. But....if those costs weren't on the budget, how can they be the cause of the national deficits, as Obie claims?

The high costs come from our patchwork non-system of private-public insurance plans, horrendous economic inefficiencies from people staying at jobs they suck at in order to get the health benefits, our malpractice laws that make litigation far too easy, and from the uninsured not visiting doctors to prevent small problems and thus handing the public a bill once the problem becomes catastrophic. Universal health care can eliminate or mitigate all of those problems.

Every single other modern country in the world pays less per capita than the United States of America (while getting equal or better results). And it's not even close. We spend more than TWICE as much per capita as the next-biggest spender, Switzerland.

 

[GottaHurt]

Not to worry folks, Obama says his UHC plan is going to cut the deficit. :shock:

 

[celticlord]

The stock market does seem to have bottomed out (hopefully). That's a leading indicator...which makes me think that the economy as a whole will probably hit bottom sometime this summer and then slowly start to rebound (assuming that the stock market actually has bottomed). Unemployment is a lagging indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if it continued to rise into next year.

Actually, the stock market is generally a "mis"-leading indicator. The recession began at the end of 2007, and the stock market didn't tank until late 2008.

There are, unfortunately, an abundance of indicators which suggest the recent stock market rally is little more than a "bear market rally"--not the least of which is its decline over the past few days. Wholesale prices declined last month, as did retail sales. The Energy Information Administration lowered its estimate of 2009 oil demand by 180,000 barrels per day. These signs point to a contracting economy, not one that is necessarily "bottoming out".

 

[zimmer]

The high costs come from our patchwork non-system of private-public insurance plans, horrendous economic inefficiencies from people staying at jobs they suck at in order to get the health benefits, our malpractice laws that make litigation far too easy, and from the uninsured not visiting doctors to prevent small problems and thus handing the public a bill once the problem becomes catastrophic. Universal health care can eliminate or mitigate all of those problems.

No, it makes the problem even larger.
Private system inefficiencies are replaced by government inefficiencies, and government will make the private sector look like a well oiled machine.

Worse you have little recourse to usurp government's choices for you.

Every single other modern country in the world pays less per capita than the United States of America (while getting equal or better results). And it's not even close. We spend more than TWICE as much per capita as the next-biggest spender, Switzerland.

No, and it is why Canadians go to the US for standard procedures, why German Doctors are leaving, English patients wait in ambulances outside the hospital for hours... and why the titles of the following articles explain what happens when government takes over the free market; in this case healthcare.

We need less government involvement... not more.

The Patient Leaves Empty handed.

Just Like in Communist East Germany

In article 1 the Dr. reveals the state must "ration" care; it has no other choice.

In article 2, the system is declared just as it was in the DDR.
Inefficient, painfully slow and restrictive.

When somebody tries to sell you on the drug called government run nationalized, socialized medicine, remember they're trying to get you hooked and do not have your best interests at heart...
Just Say No.

.

 

[Kandahar]

No, it makes the problem even larger.
Private system inefficiencies are replaced by government inefficiencies, and government will make the private sector look like a well oiled machine.

The facts from other nations simply do not support this view.

No, and it is why Canadians go to the US for standard procedures,

Ezra Klein has thoroughly debunked this myth:
The authors used some nifty methodology, including surveying numerous US hospitals along the border, as well as institutions generally regarded as "America's Best Hospitals". On the Canadian side, they used the National Population Health Survey (which literally asks, "In the past twelve months did you receive any health care services in the United States?" and "Did you go there primarily to get these services?"), as well as querying insurance companies on the Canadian side about the popularity of policies that cover US institutions.
[...]
the most striking stats come from the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS). From the article:

"Only 90 of 18,000 respondents to the 1996 Canadian NPHS indicated that they had received care in the United States during the previous twelve months, and only twenty had indicated that they had gone to the United States expressly for the purpose of getting that care."

Only 20 of 18,000 sought care in the United States. I can't believe how many people are coming over here! Their system but be truly awful.

EzraKlein Archive | The American Prospect

why German Doctors are leaving,

Do you have some statistics on this? Or at least an explanation of why universal health care is the cause of this problem?

English patients wait in ambulances outside the hospital for hours

Again, do you have some statistics on this? I've never heard of this problem before.

.. and why the titles of the following articles explain what happens when government takes over the free market; in this case healthcare.

We need less government involvement... not more.

The Patient Leaves Empty handed.

Just Like in Communist East Germany

In article 1 the Dr. reveals the state must "ration" care; it has no other choice.

In article 2, the system is declared just as it was in the DDR.
Inefficient, painfully slow and restrictive.

When somebody tries to sell you on the drug called government run nationalized, socialized medicine, remember they're trying to get you hooked and do not have your best interests at heart...
Just Say No.

.

You didn't post the articles. What newspaper is this from anyway? Most large German newspapers have English translations.

 

[zimmer]

There are, unfortunately, an abundance of indicators which suggest the recent stock market rally is little more than a "bear market rally"--not the least of which is its decline over the past few days. Wholesale prices declined last month, as did retail sales. The Energy Information Administration lowered its estimate of 2009 oil demand by 180,000 barrels per day. These signs point to a contracting economy, not one that is necessarily "bottoming out".

Japan had runs of as much as 30% on their free-fall to financial purgatory.

Obama signaling the bottom of the market is uber-dumb, especially considering his doom and gloom only a few weeks ago.
How the hell does he know? (Sorry, he is The One we have been waiting for... sorry, so sorry)
If he knew such things, was able to predict the market, he should be a massively wealthy community organizer.

Warren Buffett had a few wisecracks about such people and circumstances:

On predicting the market; which is something Obama is doing.

…as one could predict which way a bird would fly when it left the tree... that was guesswork-not analysis.

On the behavior of the market.

...is too variegated, its dynamics far too rich, for one to foresee its tides, let alone the waves and wavelets that affect…

Making fun of Hayden Stone and all Hayden Stone's trying to time the market, or predict what it will do.

Would someone kindly ring a bell, advising Hayden Stone in advance of the market’s turn?

This could have been written about Obama and his Bandito's latest ventures into government expansion:

Many managements apparently were overexposed in impressionable childhood years to the story in which the imprisoned handsome prince is released from the toad’s body by a kiss from a beautiful princess. Consequently, they are certain their managerial kiss will do wonders for the profitability of Company …We’ve observed many kisses but very few miracles.

.

 

[obvious Child]

The stock market does seem to have bottomed out (hopefully). That's a leading indicator...which makes me think that the economy as a whole will probably hit bottom sometime this summer and then slowly start to rebound (assuming that the stock market actually has bottomed). Unemployment is a lagging indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if it continued to rise into next year.

Eh. The stock market is largely doing well because financials are starting to report profits.

Except that those profits are total shams. As of April 2nd, FASB suspended Mark to Market. Now, management at financials can price their toxic assets however they please. Therefore, they no longer have to recognize any losses on assets that they have to pay interest and principle on yet receive virtually no income from. Sooner or later people are going to realize this and we'll be back in the crapper.

The worst thing is suspensions like this tend to go longer than their alleged temporary status. Therefore, we could be setting the stage for even worse financial messes in the future by allowing management to price their assets however they please. The allowance of treating L1 assets like L3 is beyond frightening.

Wells Fargo has a large boost in profits because their debt obligations were downgraded in value due to raising interest rates meaning that what they owned was now significently impaired which is then booked as income. No actual money was made. The still owe the same amount!

Banking. Go figure.

 

[Kandahar]

Eh. The stock market is largely doing well because financials are starting to report profits.

Except that those profits are total shams. As of April 2nd, FASB suspended Mark to Market. Now, management at financials can price their toxic assets however they please. Therefore, they no longer have to recognize any losses on assets that they have to pay interest and principle on yet receive virtually no income from. Sooner or later people are going to realize this and we'll be back in the crapper.

The stock market, if not perfectly rational, is certainly rational enough not to be fooled by an accounting change that was publicly announced. It's not like those investors who are buying the stocks are, as a group, unaware of those changes.

 

[zimmer]

Re: "Reccession easing", says a defiant Obama.

quote=Kandahar;1057991567
Do you have some statistics on this? Or at least an explanation of why universal health care is the cause of this problem?

Hope this helps.
I have many friends who are Dr.'s in Germany... my outlaws have 22 in their large immediate family, so I know the problem well. Most are moving towards retirement, but the youngens, of which there are 2 MD's I know personally... have fled Germany.

The bureaucracy is unimaginable.
One of the Doc's is one of those gung-ho types you'd want as a Doc... he was in research, trained in sports med, surgery, is capable of doing a lot... but... the German government basically told him he couldn't use 65% of his training.

He left and is making 8 times the cash he did in Germany.
He's doing what he loves and is enjoying life again.

I really feel sorry for those who entered the field with the best intentions, took on the massive schooling, pressures and responsibilities, have a love for medicine and are now reduced to being slaves for the state... and having their lives messed with in the worst way.

Social medicine is a scourge.
If small communities want to try it... fine, but not a federally or even state mandated socialist system.

It's too slow, it's corrupt to the core, it discourages new technology, people with contacts are better served... it's abysmal... think the US system is bad... you'll be begging to have it back after the USSA gets to run things.

Before we head to Germany, let's look at Canada's failures.

Featured Article - WSJ.com

Let's hope Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy were sitting down when they heard the news of the latest bombshell Supreme Court ruling. From the Supreme Court of Canada, that is. That high court issued an opinion last Thursday saying, in effect, that Canada's vaunted public health-care system produces intolerable inequality.

"Access to a waiting list is not access to health care," wrote Chief Justice Beverly McLachlin for the 4-3 Court last week. Canadians wait an average of 17.9 weeks for surgery and other therapeutic treatments, according the Vancouver-based Fraser Institute. The waits would be even longer if Canadians didn't have access to the U.S. as a medical-care safety valve.

The larger lesson here is that health care isn't immune from the laws of economics. Politicians can't wave a wand and provide equal coverage for all merely by declaring medical care to be a "right," in the word that is currently popular on the American left.

There are only two ways to allocate any good or service: through prices, as is done in a market economy, or lines dictated by government, as in Canada's system. The socialist claim is that a single-payer system is more equal than one based on prices, but last week's court decision reveals that as an illusion. Or, to put it another way, Canadian health care is equal only in its shared scarcity.

German Brain Drain: Sick of Bad Pay, Doctors Flee Germany - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Fröhling has been working in England for over a year, he's one of 2,600 German doctors in Britain who escaped from the woes of their country's health service to greener pastures. Away from Germany, the land of bad pay, long working hours, all-encroaching bureaucracy and rigid organization.

News of the Day #372 - National health insurance in trouble in Europe; doctors fleeing Germany
National health insurance in trouble in Europe; doctors fleeing Germany

Germany is the pioneer for state-funded medicine, dating back to the time of Bismarck. The damage to German medicine may be irreparable.

Once established, a national health-care bureaucracy may be impossible to dismantle. Reforms adopted in October, intended to fight exploding costs and red tape, simply added a complex new scheme with a new layer of bureaucracy and a 0.5% hike in the payroll tax.

“Free” medical care in Germany costs workers 14.2% of their paycheck. Since the 1970s, payroll taxes have doubled. Unemployment stands at 10.2%.

German doctors work grueling hours and earn less than one-fourth as much as American doctors. The $56,000 salary for a 60-hour work week translates into wages that a cleaning woman wouldn’t accept.

Germany is not the only EU country with health-care difficulties. Waiting times are common throughout the EU... Half of the systems deny patients access to their medical records or to a second opinion. At least four of five Europeans are denied knowledge of medical conditions, available only to an informed elite

Germans Leave in Record Numbers, Fleeing Unemployment (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Koerber is one of 145,000 Germans who fled the fatherland last year

``Many highly qualified young people are leaving our country to seek their fortunes elsewhere, while only very few top people have been attracted to Germany in recent years,'' said Ludwig Georg Braun, president of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, which represents more than 3 million companies. ``This development is causing us growing concern.''

a 40 year-old German teacher who moved to France said Aug. 26 in a typical posting. The teacher, writing under the alias ``Kritischer Leser,'' meaning Critical Reader, said he's working fewer hours and making more money than his sister, a doctor in Germany.

Other German expatriates cite what they say is the over- regimentation of the labor force. ``Life in Germany is totally over-regulated,''

...doctors make more money in Switzerland, said Matthias Dettmer, 31,...He makes more than double his former colleagues in Germany, who earn what he calls a "cleaner's pay.''

Striking German Doctors Shed Light on System Ills | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 24.03.2006

Striking German Doctors Shed Light on System Ills

Doctors in Germany are sending out a clear message

Some 20,000 doctors at German state-run hospitals lay down their stethoscopes this week demanding better pay and work conditions. Can the country afford to pay its doctors more -- and can it afford not to?

a 2004 study by UK economic research group NERA showed German hospital physicians at the rock bottom of a list of 11 western countries in terms of compensation,

The problem with physicians' pay is not recent. "It has been a political problem for the past 20 years, but it's been ignored," Henke said.

...Today, however, there is a physician shortage. Now, the relatively poor pay and difficult conditions have led to a mini-exodus of doctors fleeing Germany for the UK, Scandinavia and elsewhere.

"In my opinion, Germany's low-qualification jobs are overpaid, so those jobs are going overseas," said Henke. "At the same time, our qualified people earn far too little. That leads to a brain drain of all professionals ... But for physicians it is particularly extreme, because of the capped budgets at state hospitals."

http://arkiv.security-review.net/Ar...octors are packing their bags _ csmonitor.pdf

http://www.springerlink.com/content/d1r6604p00653342/fulltext.pdf?page=1
Introduction
Many countries that until a few years ago were reporting a
glut of doctors are now complaining of a shortage.
Germany is one of them. Two separate developments are
responsible for this: whilst there is an ever-increasing
proportion of older doctors in the German medical
profession, the supply of new young doctors is drying up
(see Kopetsch 2005). The migration of doctors from and to
Germany must be seen in this context. Many German
doctors are emigrating because they find their working
conditions intolerable. Surveys show that German doctors
have three main motives for either emigrating or ceasing to
practise curative medicine altogether. The first of these is
the level of remuneration, which they consider inadequate
for the services they perform. The second is their
experience that medical practice allows them too little time
for their families and leisure pursuits. Their third motive is
the increasing bureaucracy and administrative burden faced
by medical practitioners (see Ramboll Management 2004).

You didn't post the articles. What newspaper is this from anyway? Most large German newspapers have English translations.

I'm pretty sure it was FOCUS Magazin, Germany... from about 18 moths ago or so.
The articles were scans and I'd reduced them... thought I had them in full size, perhaps in one of my backup HD's. I'll have a looksy.


PS. Reagan nailed it dead center bullseye 48-years ago.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRdLpem-AAs"]YouTube - Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine[/ame]

.

 

[zimmer]

Re: "Reccession easing", says a defiant Obama.

Part 2

THE ENGLISH
The ambulances waiting outside the hospital is a great example of what happens when government becomes involved.

They passed a law stating ER patients must be seen within "X" minutes. Unable to do that, they simply have them wait outside in their ambulances.
That's the game in a nutshell.

Now they have problems with available ambulances... and so the BS goes when government is involved running something they have ZERO idea about.

The human cost of forcing ambulances to wait | Society | The Observer
The human cost of forcing ambulances to wait

Ambulance crews have had to sit outside hospitals with seriously ill patients - and they fear the delays are due to political pressure

Patrick Wilkins had collapsed with a stroke. All advice is that, if a stroke victim is to receive the best possible chance of survival, he must be transported to hospital as quickly as possible. But it was 55 minutes before an ambulance even arrived at his door.

The reason, his MP, Norman Lamb, was to discover, was that the vehicle the emergency control room had assigned to assist him was still at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, where it was being held because of severe bed problems in the A&E department, a fact the East of England Ambulance Service would later admit to the MP.

In November, the same hospital had to declare an emergency when 10 ambulances were queuing outside because doctors had run out of beds. It announced it was on 'black alert', the status when contingency measures are exhausted and pressures unsustainable.

Britain apologises for 'Third World' hospital

Receptionists with no medical training were left to to assess patients arriving at the hospital's accident and emergency department, the report found.

Julie Bailey, whose 86-year-old mother Bella died in the hospital in November 2007, said she and other family members slept in a chair at her bedside for eight weeks because they were so concerned about poor care.

"What we saw in those eight weeks will haunt us for the rest of our lives," said the 47-year-old. "We saw patients drinking out of flower vases they were so thirsty.

"There were patients wandering around the hospital and patients fighting. It was continuous through the night. Patients were screaming out in pain because you just could not get pain relief.

"It was like a Third World country hospital. It was an absolute disgrace."

The British premier, who has trumpeted huge increases in spending on the NHS since his Labour party took office in 1997, said there were "no excuses" for what happened to patients at the hospital.

OH CANADA!

Canadian Dr. on Kanuckistan Kare.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fleuG8yA3Y"]YouTube - Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow David Gratzer on CNBC[/ame]
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le8Q2dLn7PE"]YouTube - Manhattan Institute Scholars Herzlinger and Gratzer on 20/20[/ame]
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW704YrUpUM"]YouTube - David Gratzer on WNET's "Inside Trenton" Part I[/ame]
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ins8sbIU_Y&feature=related"]YouTube - David Gratzer on WNET's "Inside Trenton" Part II[/ame]
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz89ibAag84&feature=related"]YouTube - David Gratzer on WNET's "Inside Trenton" Part III[/ame]

.

 

[American]

BBC NEWS | Business | Obama suggests recession easing


The Obamarama has suggested the reccession is easing. If this is true, i see no such thing, infact i see everything getting worse. Chances are he has economic statistics on his desk in the oval office we havent had the chance to get our hands on yet that proves his case, but i havent seen any evidence of it.



This doesnt seem to me like job losses, more repossessions and pain will pave the way for recovery, it just sounds like it will exagerate the problem, otherwise the cause of this entire meltdown would have well been gone and done with by now, considering we have seen alot of job losses and pain over the past year or so.

Just comforting words, or do they have real substance?

Economic policies don't really take affect that quickly, no the threat of them does. I see nothing happening.

 

[celticlord]

The stock market, if not perfectly rational, is certainly rational enough not to be fooled by an accounting change that was publicly announced. It's not like those investors who are buying the stocks are, as a group, unaware of those changes.

They are aware of the potential impact, which is why the stock market didn't go ballistic when Wells Fargo reported record profits. The market has a certain suspicion of such awesome news, and rightly so.

The other shoe that has yet to drop is the quantification of that impact. Investors know there is an extra bit of puffery in some of the numbers being reported, they have not yet determined how much. As that bit of puffery gives banks a momentary additional lease on life, it's not irrational to bid up stock prices somewhat and take some momentary profits; as the recent declines in the market indicate, however, the positive effect of the puffery is momentary, and is already fading.

Absent a more substantial dynamic, such as a real solution to the "toxic" assets, the momentary puffery of suddenly improved bank fortunes will not translate into a bottoming out of the market or the economy.

 

[Goobieman]

Seems to me that every time GWB (et al) suggested this, the liberals found all kids of ways to say "nuh-uh!!"

Where are they now?

 

[kaya'08]

Where are you looking? It's going to ease here before it does anywhere else.

Well then you tell me? Can you honestly say things are looking so much more hopeful recently? Has your standards of living improved significantly by any reasonable measure, and is it at the same levels as it was say last year, or the year before? No doubt there has been improvements, but we have nothing to say it will last.

Actually, the stock market is generally a "mis"-leading indicator.

Because its a volatile thing. Any improvements in the stock market is usually a temporary reaction to good news like an IMF deal or whatever (these days). Unless there consistently on the up and up i wouldnt base my opinions on just the stock market. Your better off looking at consumer behaviour if you want an accurate indicator.

 

[atomizer]

The stock market does seem to have bottomed out (hopefully). That's a leading indicator...which makes me think that the economy as a whole will probably hit bottom sometime this summer and then slowly start to rebound (assuming that the stock market actually has bottomed). Unemployment is a lagging indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if it continued to rise into next year.

cool, does that mean we all can move out of our tents and live in a real hse. again next yr.