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Thread: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

  1. #51
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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by BulletWounD View Post
    It depends on what our intelligence community knows about the "object" mounted at the head of the missile. If they were 100% certain it's a satellite, I'd let it proceed and press for sanctions and accept S. Korea's bid into the Proliferation Security Initiative and start conducting exercises immediately.
    "Sanctions" are just the default answer and not a real solution. North Korea is already the most economically isolated country in the world. There really isn't much left to sanction.

    Quote Originally Posted by BulletWounD
    With anything less than extremely high confidence that it's a satellite, I'd shoot it down. N. Korea cannot be trusted; they are professional liars. They don't need a communications satellite and they haven't released the communications frequencies which by international protocol is done 2 years in advance. They've been starving their people in favor of massive military expenditures, which can only mean one thing: they plan on improving their economy through military conquest. They can now theoretically nuke the US, nuke Japan, and blitzkrieg into S. Korea. It's not worth the risk.
    They know it's a satellite. They can see it.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 04-03-09 at 03:56 PM.
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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    Hardly. This reaction is pathetic, and it would be pathetic regardless of who responded this way.
    Well then once again I ask: What exactly did you want Obama to do?
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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Well then once again I ask: What exactly did you want Obama to do?
    This question has been answered. Try to keep up.

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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    "Sanctions" are just the default answer and not a real solution. North Korea is already the most economically isolated country in the world. There really isn't much left to sanction.



    They know it's a satellite. They can see it.
    No, they can't see it. They can see a bulbous mass at the top of the rocket. That doesn't mean it's a satellite. There could be anything under there. I'm afraid that no matter what course of action we choose, we're going to end up at war. More sanctions could push them to conquest out of desperation. Backing off sanctions would help them strengthen their military. Doing nothing would embolden them. The six-party talks have proven to be a farce. I really don't know what to do other than prevent war for now because conditions do not seem to be in our favor.

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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    This question has been answered. Try to keep up.
    Ah, I see now. You want to respond by shooting down the satellite. Is there anytime you DON'T think that a minor annoyance from an irritating nation calls for an act of war?
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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Ah, I see now. You want to respond by shooting down the satellite.
    Is there any time you DON'T misrepresent someone's position when you can't come up with anything coherent to counter it with?

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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    Is there any time you DON'T misrepresent someone's position when you can't come up with anything coherent to counter it with?
    Your position is that Obama should order it shot down. You posted that. It's a ridiculous position to take given the fact that our military and intelligence communities seem fairly confident it's an actual satellite. Shooting down that rocket is an act of war. His statement was having a go at your attitude. You like to do this to others, but now that it's being done to you it's not "coherent."

    Last edited by Lerxst; 04-03-09 at 07:53 PM.
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by BulletWounD View Post
    No, they can't see it. They can see a bulbous mass at the top of the rocket. That doesn't mean it's a satellite. There could be anything under there. I'm afraid that no matter what course of action we choose, we're going to end up at war. More sanctions could push them to conquest out of desperation. Backing off sanctions would help them strengthen their military. Doing nothing would embolden them. The six-party talks have proven to be a farce. I really don't know what to do other than prevent war for now because conditions do not seem to be in our favor.
    The problem here is that North Korea has absolutely nothing to gain by launching a single nuclear device at any nation. One nuclear weapon (even one with multiple warheads), especially one of the quality they are capable of developing, isn't going to position them to mount a successful military campaign that would yield beneficial results. They could not defeat our ability to project power in the region. We would counter with a nuclear response and their nation would be a wasteland. There would be no reunification and we would definitely lay waste to their military and civilian infrastructure.

    To believe they are going to nuke South Korea, Japan, or the U.S. is to subscribe to the notion that Kim Jong Il is literally insane and all his military commanders are insane. And as such this would lead to the absolute destruction of his base of power and any ability to continue rule. What would be his motive for launching a nuclear weapon, starting a war he couldn't possibly win, and sealing his doom in one fail step? What evidence do we have that would lead us to believe Pyongyang is seeking the destruction of their own nation by futilely lashing out at the U.S. or it's allies with a single rocket? A rocket that could most likely be shot down before it every posed an actual threat to the U.S.

    We can reasonably conclude that the military leaders in North Korea aren't collectively insane but reasonably competent. They've spent decades building their military state and ensuring their seat of power. They aren't foolish. They've made great strides in their own native communications technologies, military production capabilities (apc's, tanks, missiles, rockets), and have developed a massive asymmetrical warfare capability. You just don't decide one day that you are going to embark upon a mission of self-destruction by triggering the nuclear annihilation of your nation.

    This is most likely an attempt by them to study their work and gather data on their rocket/missile development capabilities. They probably really do have a satellite attached to this thing, why wouldn't they? It benefits them to put one in orbit if they have one.

    So this brings us to the question of "what do we do?" On the one hand you have Goobieman suggesting an irrational approach to the situation that will almost assuredly lead to a massive ground war. It makes no sense to shoot the rocket down at this point as we have no solid information that it is offensive in nature or armed with any kind of destructive payload. We have the capability to intercept and destroy it if necessary. So issuing a "do not launch or we go to war" statement is simply stupid. North Korea will not be deterred by such a foolish comment, in fact it will only encourage them to launch because they know we cannot afford to provoke a conventional war with them right now. We would be unable to properly support it and they are very aware of this fact. It would only end with us embarrassing ourselves.

    On the other hand we can issue a statement that if this launch proceeds, and we develop any reason to believe it's headed for the U.S. or an ally nation, we will shoot it down. And we let them launch it. To do anything else is to assure a shooting war that will almost certainly draw the Chinese in. If they actually put a satellite into to space so be it. If we can articulate the rocket has taken a threatening trajectory or profile of some kind, we immediately announce this to the world, and we intercept it. We can only show the world we stand ready to act should an actual threat be detected, and that we will not let Kim Jong Il dictate our military posture.

    But just pulling the trigger on this thing and going to war over something we can't reasonably argue is an immediate and bona fide threat to the U.S. or it's allies is a really dumb idea.
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
    The problem here is that North Korea has absolutely nothing to gain by launching a single nuclear device at any nation. One nuclear weapon (even one with multiple warheads), especially one of the quality they are capable of developing, isn't going to position them to mount a successful military campaign that would yield beneficial results. They could not defeat our ability to project power in the region. We would counter with a nuclear response and their nation would be a wasteland. There would be no reunification and we would definitely lay waste to their military and civilian infrastructure.

    To believe they are going to nuke South Korea, Japan, or the U.S. is to subscribe to the notion that Kim Jong Il is literally insane and all his military commanders are insane. And as such this would lead to the absolute destruction of his base of power and any ability to continue rule. What would be his motive for launching a nuclear weapon, starting a war he couldn't possibly win, and sealing his doom in one fail step? What evidence do we have that would lead us to believe Pyongyang is seeking the destruction of their own nation by futilely lashing out at the U.S. or it's allies with a single rocket? A rocket that could most likely be shot down before it every posed an actual threat to the U.S.
    They are insane. They have been disconnected from reality to such an extent that they are collectively insane. They are taught from kindergarten to worship their Dear Leader. "Kim-il Sung created the world." "The DPRK is paradise." "The Americans are baby killing Imperialists who invaded North Korea," etc.

    They're not seeking the destruction of their own nation, but their world view may be perverted to such an extent that they believe they can win or that they can invade the South without being hurt because they possess nuclear weapons. The idea that these weapons are being developed soley as bargaining chips is bizarre and naive.

    We can reasonably conclude that the military leaders in North Korea aren't collectively insane but reasonably competent.
    I disagree.

    They've spent decades building their military state and ensuring their seat of power. They aren't foolish.
    Stupid is as stupid does. They've run their nation into the ground.

    They've made great strides in their own native communications technologies, military production capabilities (apc's, tanks, missiles, rockets), and have developed a massive asymmetrical warfare capability. You just don't decide one day that you are going to embark upon a mission of self-destruction by triggering the nuclear annihilation of your nation.
    Ha! North Korea has one of the weakest and most technologically unsophisticated militaries in the entire world. This is a product of the fact they've run their economy into the ground. North Korea's indigenous military equipment is a throwback to the 50's. They're crude copies of Chinese and Soviet technology.

    This is most likely an attempt by them to study their work and gather data on their rocket/missile development capabilities. They probably really do have a satellite attached to this thing, why wouldn't they? It benefits them to put one in orbit if they have one.
    Yeah, right... If you want to peacefully explore space, there are ways of doing it. For instance if they had shown the world there satellite, revealed the communications frequencies, revealed the projected orbit, etc. then I might believe them. They've given me no reason to believe them and they have a LONG history of lying. They lie like they breathe. If I can trust them, I can trust anybody.

    S
    o this brings us to the question of "what do we do?" On the one hand you have Goobieman suggesting an irrational approach to the situation that will almost assuredly lead to a massive ground war. It makes no sense to shoot the rocket down at this point as we have no solid information that it is offensive in nature or armed with any kind of destructive payload. We have the capability to intercept and destroy it if necessary. So issuing a "do not launch or we go to war" statement is simply stupid. North Korea will not be deterred by such a foolish comment, in fact it will only encourage them to launch because they know we cannot afford to provoke a conventional war with them right now. We would be unable to properly support it and they are very aware of this fact. It would only end with us embarrassing ourselves.

    On the other hand we can issue a statement that if this launch proceeds, and we develop any reason to believe it's headed for the U.S. or an ally nation, we will shoot it down. And we let them launch it. To do anything else is to assure a shooting war that will almost certainly draw the Chinese in. If they actually put a satellite into to space so be it. If we can articulate the rocket has taken a threatening trajectory or profile of some kind, we immediately announce this to the world, and we intercept it. We can only show the world we stand ready to act should an actual threat be detected, and that we will not let Kim Jong Il dictate our military posture.
    Did you see my post regarding what I would do if I was the president? If this things a threat and we know it, I would go Cuban Missile Crisis style and reveal our intelligence to the world after shooting it down. The supposed lack of HUMINT assets in N.K. means that our intelligence might be too sketchy to know what the hell this thing is, though. That adds a huge element of risk.

    But just pulling the trigger on this thing and going to war over something we can't reasonably argue is an immediate and bona fide threat to the U.S. or it's allies is a really dumb idea.
    "For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill." -Sun Tzu

    North Korea is making war inevitable. If we must fight N.K., it should be done on favorable conditions. While now is hardly the ideal time for a war considering our strategic posture and the circumstances of our economy, how much more difficult will it be with a nuclear NK in the future? How many lives can be saved by disarming them now? Is there a better way?

    I can only speculate. The best I can say is let's wait for the competent bodies of our government and military to decide what to do. The best possible outcome for everybody (including the people of N.K.) is for them to not launch this missile. Failing that, the next best thing is for it to blow up on the pad.
    Last edited by BulletWounD; 04-03-09 at 10:45 PM.

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    Re: Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    Is there any time you DON'T misrepresent someone's position when you can't come up with anything coherent to counter it with?
    Well since you wouldn't tell me your position and made me comb through the entire thread looking for some hint of it, that's what I thought your position was, based on a post of yours that I saw. If that is incorrect and you think Obama should have done something else, please elaborate. I'm not going to play this game anymore; I have better things to do than try and guess your position on the issue.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 04-04-09 at 01:40 AM.
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