Last edited by ElephantPhil; 03-09-09 at 09:35 PM.
"You can turn your back on a person, but never turn your back on a drug,
especially when its waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye." - Hunter S. Thompson
It could mean that they are testing a missile and trying to disguise it as a satellite launch. Or someone in NK is just feeling cranky. Its depressing that I can't honestly say which is more likely.
Honestly, my biggest worry is that they screw up launching the satellite themselves and then claim it was attacked by a foreign power.
There are two real questions that need to be answered.
One, if NK is really firing a missile, would you as NK like to actually know if someone can shoot down your missile? I think so.
Second, NK had no problems launching the first Teapodong-1 missile across the sea, so why would they mind someone knowing now? I think if they are launching a missile they want to find out if it can be taken out.
If I were NK and launching a missile, I would like to know if someone could take it down.
If I were NK and launching a satellite that costs millions of dollars, I would want to state it is a satellite so it doesn't get taken down.
Is NK launching a satellite? Maybe, and it is a good chance.
If they are launching an actually missile, they may be provoking the U.S. into testing their missile defense system to see if it really works.
Now tell me which damage is worse. NK launching a missile and having it taken down, or NK launching a missile and not having it taken down by a defense system?
They wouldn't dare attack another Nation-state. They don't have enough food stuffs to survive any sort of siege, and their offensive power is the equivalent of the North Carolina's boy scout association.
"I do not underestimate the ability of fanatical groups of terrorists to kill and destroy, but they do not threaten the life of the nation. Whether we would survive Hitler hung in the balance, but there is no doubt that we shall survive al-Qa'ida." -- Lord Hoffmann
My worries are when he dies or he cannot physically lead and one of his children takes over. That is another story. Until then, he will do his normal saber rattling, but that is it.
Except we don't announce it beforehand and we don't threaten random countries in the process. Why make such a threat when nobody has even mentioned taking out NK's satellite?What do I think? About the same thing the U.S. would do if one of their satellites were shot down by another country.
That would involve shooting a missile at U.S. soil. I doubt they could actually do it, and it would be an act of war. I doubt even the crazies in charge would be so moronic.If they are launching an actually missile, they may be provoking the U.S. into testing their missile defense system to see if it really works.
Not true. They have enough Artillery near the border to devastate Seoul. Civilian casualties would range from the thousands to tens of thousands. Furthermore, they would probably fire whatever kind of WMDs they have at Japan. Any attack on NK will come at the high cost of innocent lives.They wouldn't dare attack another Nation-state. They don't have enough food stuffs to survive any sort of siege, and their offensive power is the equivalent of the North Carolina's boy scout association.
Some things to consider: Why does a country which does not allow contact with the outside world as a matter of policy need a communications satellite? Why would they not show the world this satellite dispel the notion that it were anything but? Why would they make the launch date a secret? Why would they not coordinate with the rest of the world for the purpose of deconfliction (this is how we intend to orbit our satellite will this collide with anything?)? Why would the US military come out and make that kind of statement if they didn't have reason to believe it's not a satellite? I think the military knows damn well that it would mean war.
In somewhat related news, I'd like to point everybody to the video at the bottom of this page. Within you will find a statement by what appears to be a high ranking officer of the Navy. I find it interesting that he says "I can honestly say that I believe that the exercise is not designed to prepare for an attack on North Korea, but to defend the Republic of Korea from North Korean aggression." He believes? You mean he doesn't know what the purpose of the exercise is??? If he doesn't, then who the hell does? I also notice that he looks down a lot when he makes that statement and shifts his eyes about. It appears to me that he is lying. Now, I'm not saying that the US is planning an attack but I am suggesting that that perhaps he has heard a whiff of a rumor that South Korea may be examining their options.
If the US shoots down a "satellite launch vehicle" which is in fact a missile with a re-entry vehicle or worse, in a clear violation of international law, I have strong reason to believe that the international community will be unified in their opposition to subsequent North Korean aggression (the possible wildcard being china, for whom a unified North Korea under a Western style government is not in the best interest). However, if South Korea unilaterally invades North Korea (which, I would argue, they have some pretty compelling reasons to do and do right now), the international community will be much more divided and South Korea may risk an escalation of conflict to WWIII.
And another question: Do you think that Obama, a man with no military or even executive experience could handle a war in Korea in light of the fact that we are already waging a war on two fronts?
Last edited by BulletWounD; 03-09-09 at 11:12 PM.