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Thread: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

  1. #171
    Educator Grateful Heart's Avatar
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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
    That is very interesting because it indicates that conservative influence didn't carry anywhere close to it's traditional weight. Why is that?
    It's very easy. The conservative GOP votes were split and fragmented throughout. Not because of a failure of ideology, but due to the inability to settle on a candidate. Romney and Huckabee effectively split the conservative vote. Which allowed McCain to win a number of major primaries by considerably less than a majority.

    Consider the results from Florida, for instance:

    McCain 36%
    Romney 31%
    Guiliani 15%
    Huckabee 13%

    If you recall, Guiliani had placed all his marbles on FL and dropped out soon after. But the conservative vote continued to be split. In the Super Tuesday GOP primaries just after Florida:

    Romney won Maine soundly. McCain only pulled 21%.
    Romney won Utah. McCain only pulled 5%.
    Huckabee won Tennessee. McCain pulled 32%.
    McCain pulled out a victory in Oklahoma with 37%. Together, Romney and Huckabee garnered 58% of the vote.
    McCain won several states on 2/5, but they are interesting to analyze.

    You can follow this trend state after state after state. McCain picking up enough delegates to become unbeatable as the conservative votes were split among Huckabee and Romney.

    Once Romney pulled out of the race, Huckabee was the only conservative remaining to challenge McCain. He was a virtual unknown. Not much respected in the MSM. And yet he pulled 41% to McCain's 50% in VA. By that time, it was over.

    So that's the answer to your question. McCain won by default. He was never the overwhelming choice among GOP voters. In fact he won less than half of all GOP primary votes. Hardly overwhelming. The facts and the numbers speak for themselves.

    Last edited by Grateful Heart; 03-02-09 at 10:15 PM.

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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by Grateful Heart View Post
    Romney and Huckabee effectively split the conservative vote. Which allowed McCain to win a number of major primaries by considerably less than a majority.
    It's interesting because Gottahurt, a conservative on this board, has said that McCain was the lesser of all the evils presented for Republicans.

    What say you to that?

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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by Grateful Heart View Post
    It's very easy. The GOP votes were split and fragmented throughout. Romney and Huckabee effectively split the conservative vote. Which allowed McCain to win a number of major primaries by considerably less than a majority.

    Consider the results from Florida, for instance:

    McCain 36%
    Romney 31%
    Guiliani 15%
    Huckabee 13%

    If you recall, Guiliani had placed all his marbles on FL and dropped out soon after. But the conservative vote continued to be split. In the Super Tuesday GOP primaries just after Florida:

    Romney won Maine soundly. McCain only pulled 21%.
    Romney won Utah. McCain only pulled 5%.
    Huckabee won Tennessee. McCain pulled 32%.
    McCain pulled out a victory in Oklahoma with 37%. Together, Romney and Huckabee garnered 58% of the vote.
    McCain won several states on 2/5, but they are interesting to analyze.

    You can follow this trend state after state after state. McCain picking up enough delegates to become unbeatable as the conservative votes were split among Huckabee and Romney.

    Once Romney pulled out of the race, Huckabee was the only conservative remaining to challenge McCain. He was a virtual unknown. Not much respected in the MSM. And yet he pulled 41% to McCain's 50% in VA. By that time, it was over.

    So that's the answer to your question. McCain won by default. He was never the overwhelming choice among GOP voters. In fact he won less than half of all GOP primary votes. Hardly overwhelming. The facts and the numbers speak for themselves.

    do you seriously think Huckabee could ever possibly win the general?

    Romney, maybe, but Huckabee has no chance. None.

    As a side note, can someone please explain the logic of Gulliani's campaign?

    Without a doubt, the greatest political failure since I've been involved in politics. He went from front-runner and in some circles presumed winner to...nothing. All through sheer bad campaign strategy.
    Last edited by new coup for you; 03-02-09 at 10:15 PM.
    And why does your tone suggest that you do not care about children?

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    Educator Grateful Heart's Avatar
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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by new coup for you View Post
    do you seriously think Huckabee could ever possibly win the general?

    Romney, maybe, but Huckabee has no chance. None.
    I never thought Huckabee was viable, no. But I suspect he'd have run a tougher general election campaign than McCain. I have no doubt about that.

    As a side note, can someone please explain the logic of Gulliani's campaign?

    Without a doubt, the greatest political failure since I've been involved in politics. He went from front-runner and in some circles presumed winner to...nothing. All through sheer bad campaign strategy.
    I wish I could explain it. I like Guiliani. But that Florida gamble was an utter disaster.


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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    It's a disaster I've never read a sufficient explanation of. I'd seriously be interested in the memoirs of the campaign strategist, I really want to know what their theory was.
    And why does your tone suggest that you do not care about children?

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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by Grateful Heart View Post
    I never thought Huckabee was viable, no. But I suspect he'd have run a tougher general election campaign than McCain. I have no doubt about that.



    I wish I could explain it. I like Guiliani. But that Florida gamble was an utter disaster.

    So you're saying McCain wasn't the lesser of all the evils presented?

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    Educator Grateful Heart's Avatar
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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    It's interesting because Gottahurt, a conservative on this board, has said that McCain was the lesser of all the evils presented for Republicans.

    What say you to that?
    I found flaws with all of the GOP contenders. McCain, IMHO, was one of the most flawed. I was outspoken about him before the primaries. I did not vote for him in my primary, even though the outcome was already determined. I did not vote for him in the general election. I wrote in a candidate of my choice.

    That's how strongly I dislike John McCain.

    Many of my family and friends tried to use the 'lesser of two evils' argument in the general. I never heard that during the primaries. In the primaries most were bickering between Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, Guiliani, or Ron Paul. McCain snuck in under the radar.


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    Educator Grateful Heart's Avatar
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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    So you're saying McCain wasn't the lesser of all the evils presented?
    See my post above.


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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by Grateful Heart View Post
    It's very easy. The GOP votes were split and fragmented throughout. Romney and Huckabee effectively split the conservative vote. Which allowed McCain to win a number of major primaries by considerably less than a majority.

    Consider the results from Florida, for instance:

    McCain 36%
    Romney 31%
    Guiliani 15%
    Huckabee 13%

    If you recall, Guiliani had placed all his marbles on FL and dropped out soon after. But the conservative vote continued to be split. In the Super Tuesday GOP primaries just after Florida:

    Romney won Maine soundly. McCain only pulled 21%.
    Romney won Utah. McCain only pulled 5%.
    Huckabee won Tennessee. McCain pulled 32%.
    McCain pulled out a victory in Oklahoma with 37%. Together, Romney and Huckabee garnered 58% of the vote.
    McCain won

    You can follow this trend state after state after state. McCain picking up enough delegates to become unbeatable as the conservative votes were split among Huckabee and Romney.

    Once Romney pulled out of the race, Huckabee was the only conservative remaining to challenge McCain. He was a virtual unknown. Not much respected in the MSM. And yet he pulled 41% to McCain's 50% in VA. By that time, it was over.

    So that's the answer to your question. McCain won by default. He was never the overwhelming choice among GOP voters. In fact he won less than half of all GOP primary votes. Hardly overwhelming. The facts and the numbers speak for themselves.

    Approximation of the popular vote: McCain 47%, Romney 21%, Huckabee 20%, all others combined 11%. By popular vote, that's how it washed out. That's the breakdown of Republican voters. Citation of individual states is fine, you can examine the trends and deduce what you'd like. My point is this...a large majority (relatively speaking considering the candidates) picked McCain. By raw numbers, 47% of voting Republicans in the primary picked McCain over almost a half dozen others. In a five or six way race getting nearly 50% is a big deal. It's a big deal in a three way race. Relatively speaking.

    The fact that the Republican party couldn't decide their identity is the point I've been after here. Actually more to the point, I find the fact that the conservative base lost so much influence...there is simply no other way to look at it, extremely interesting. Well you could subscribe to the theory they lost part and gave away part. Regardless, this shift towards a moderate posture by a large number of the GOP is telling.

    So how do you think the GOP viewed the conservative base during their alleged "sit out" in 2004-2006 House/Senate elections? Do you think it weakened the conservative influence? Do you think they actually sat out at all?
    Last edited by Lerxst; 03-02-09 at 10:25 PM.
    *insert profound statement here*

  10. #180
    Educator Grateful Heart's Avatar
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    Re: Limbaugh Rallies Conservatives to Fight Democrats, Find 'Right Candidate'

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
    Approximation of the popular vote: McCain 47%, Romney 21%, Huckabee 20%, all others combined 11%. By popular vote, that's how it washed out.
    What you continue to disregard when tossing out that 47% is that much of that 47% was gained AFTER the conservative candidates had all dropped out of the race. By March McCain was regularly getting 75-85% of the votes because there was no one left campaigning against him. And even running virtually unopposed in almost 19 states... he still ended up with something less than a majority of GOP primary voters.

    But what the heck. If you insist, he was the 'overwhelming choice' of the GOP.


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