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Thread: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

  1. #21
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    Re: Iran holds enough uranium for bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    I am as concerned about the Israelis having nukes as I am the French and Brits having them.

    Iran having nukes will lead to a nuclear exchange in the ME.
    Perhaps, but not in the conventional sense. Iran having nukes is like Japan having nukes. Neither country would use them. But their ownership would frightening the pants off everyone around them causing them to acquire weapons.

    The law of large numbers takes over and eventually some accident, theft or misunderstanding and the region gets glassed.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    Nope they just have Al-Qaeda operating in their country. But I guess that isn't a concern of yours is it since Pakistan is a nuclear country.
    Well, you are talking to people who have backed Bush and his utter failure to frankly do anything about terrorist nuclear weapon proliferation.

    Therefore it makes perfect sense why they don't give a hoot about the real potential of Pakistan nuclear devices falling in the hands of Bin Laden and Co. Allegedly, there were rumors during the worst of the Musharraf days where the US was planning surgical strikes on Pakistani nuclear assets to prevent terrorists from acquiring such devices.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    FT.com / Middle East / Politics & Society - Iran holds enough uranium for bomb

    Yes that's right folks. The Israelis aren't gonna sit around and wait for the Obama folks to save them. How long till Israel hits Iran?

    I'm betting May, early June at the latest. They won't wait, and shouldn't wait. Diplomacy has failed.
    lol.

    Ah, the gallery wishes to pretend it understand something it clearly doesn't.

    And by gallery, I mean you.

    First of all, to produce a viable weapon made from LEU would required obscene amounts of it. Given the estimates from other sources, the bomb's uranium alone would weigh over a ton. Start to add on the large number of shaped charged and neutron deflectors to produce the necessary compression to actually make a critical mass and the weight is almost assured to go skywards. US warheads' mass is not largely the critical mass. Much of the weight is the necessarily tools to create the explosion based around a highly enriched core of either uranium or plutonium. Fat Man was over 10,000 lbs.

    LOL. Oh this is GOOD.

    Iran Missiles

    The only way the Iranians are going to delivery this weapon is by semi-truck.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    FT.com / Middle East / Politics & Society - Iran holds enough uranium for bomb

    Yes that's right folks. The Israelis aren't gonna sit around and wait for the Obama folks to save them. How long till Israel hits Iran?

    I'm betting May, early June at the latest. They won't wait, and shouldn't wait. Diplomacy has failed.
    Israel isn't going to hit Iran, and to hope for that is just a futile effort to avoid actually thinking about the problem and how best to solve it.
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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    lol.

    Ah, the gallery wishes to pretend it understand something it clearly doesn't.

    And by gallery, I mean you.

    First of all, to produce a viable weapon made from LEU would required obscene amounts of it. Given the estimates from other sources, the bomb's uranium alone would weigh over a ton. Start to add on the large number of shaped charged and neutron deflectors to produce the necessary compression to actually make a critical mass and the weight is almost assured to go skywards. US warheads' mass is not largely the critical mass. Much of the weight is the necessarily tools to create the explosion based around a highly enriched core of either uranium or plutonium. Fat Man was over 10,000 lbs.

    LOL. Oh this is GOOD.

    Iran Missiles

    The only way the Iranians are going to delivery this weapon is by semi-truck.
    You really have no clue how a nuclear weapon works do you?

    You only need about 40lbs of HEU, which is the step they are at now... they either reconfigure their known plants or they have something set up elsewhere... take 4-6 months max to process what they have.

    And fatman was bulky because of the era... we didn't know better... explosives were different... a fission bomb is at the heart of every one of our modern nuclear weapons... it don't take much set one off.
    YouTube - M65 Recoiless Nuclear Rifle

    Do you really think it's much secret how that thing works?

    And using that you could attempt a multistage fusion weapon....
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    You really have no clue how a nuclear weapon works do you?

    You only need about 40lbs of HEU, which is the step they are at now... they either reconfigure their known plants or they have something set up elsewhere... take 4-6 months max to process what they have.

    And fatman was bulky because of the era... we didn't know better... explosives were different... a fission bomb is at the heart of every one of our modern nuclear weapons... it don't take much set one off.
    YouTube - M65 Recoiless Nuclear Rifle

    Do you really think it's much secret how that thing works?

    And using that you could attempt a multistage fusion weapon....
    in Italics: No freaking clue.
    in Bold: Hey! It seems that we agree that is silly to think that Iran would use a nuclear weapon as it seems just so g'd easy to create, and use, that if there were to be a nuclear weapon used it was going to have already been done...
    "I do not underestimate the ability of fanatical groups of terrorists to kill and destroy, but they do not threaten the life of the nation. Whether we would survive Hitler hung in the balance, but there is no doubt that we shall survive al-Qa'ida." -- Lord Hoffmann

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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Arch Enemy View Post
    in Italics: No freaking clue.
    in Bold: Hey! It seems that we agree that is silly to think that Iran would use a nuclear weapon as it seems just so g'd easy to create, and use, that if there were to be a nuclear weapon used it was going to have already been done...
    And 40lbs is for an inefficient weapon.

    Fat Man used:
    Fat Man, the Nagasaki bomb, used 13.6 lb (6.2 kg, about 12 fluid ounces in volume) of Pu-239, which is only 39% of bare-metal critical mass. (See Fat Man article for a detailed drawing.) The U-238 reflected, 13.6 lb (6.2 kg) pit was sub-critical before detonation. During detonation, criticality was achieved by implosion. The plutonium pit was squeezed to increase its density by simultaneous detonation of conventional explosives placed uniformly around the pit. The explosives were detonated by multiple exploding-bridgewire detonators. It is estimated that only about 20% of the plutonium underwent fission, the rest (about 11 lb (5.0 kg) or 5 kg) was scattered.
    Nuclear weapon design - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    And that was a wasteful pure fission weapon. Most of the weight was the conventional package around the weapon.

    You can lower the size by using a small fission ignition to initiate a second stage Fusion explosion. Boosting nominal yield from 10-20kt into the low 100's of KT. Taken a step further you can hit the Megaton range, but that's really a waste in the end. It's easier, and more efficient to make 4-5 200KT warheads then 1 2MT weapon. And you get better damage if done right.


    Did you know South Africa once had fully functional nuclear weapons?

    Also, to make weapons grade plutonium U235 is used in the reactor...

    Just saying.


    So any hoots, it's not so much that a nuclear weapon is hard to build, it ain't. I could build Little Boy, it's NOT HARD. The hard part is making the weapons grade material, and then getting the parts to make it a deliverable weapon. But making an atom bomb is easy, setting up the infrastructure to support fusion weapon development isn't so easy.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



  8. #28
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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    You really have no clue how a nuclear weapon works do you?
    Given the numerous posts here, I do know how it works. What is clear is that you clearly don't have a clue.

    You only need about 40lbs of HEU, which is the step they are at now.
    Incorrect. The step they are at is about 1,000 + lbs of LEU, which as Arch pointed out can be made into a weapon by excessive use of neutron deflectors and shaped charges. The problem with that is largely weight.

    You clearly don't understand the difference between LEU and HEU and what they both entail in producing a weapon.

    they either reconfigure their known plants or they have something set up elsewhere... take 4-6 months max to process what they have.
    Perhaps, but it makes more sense to produce HEU from the start rather then making LEU and then enriching it into HEU which is longer, more costly and less in line with a weapons production facility. If you had any understanding of history, you'd know that both the US and Britain had dedicated facilities specifically designed to churn out weapons grade material. That ain't Iran.

    And fatman was bulky because of the era... we didn't know better... explosives were different
    Hardly. Fatman is fundamentally no different then what Iran is doing aside from being plutonium rather then uranium based. And explosives weren't difference. The same principles for shaped charged and neutron deflectors are the same as today abet with better milling processes. To produce a weapon from LEU would require huge amounts of additional shaped charges and deflectors, all adding additional weight.

    Like I said, Iran's going to need a semitruck to deliver such a weapon.

    a fission bomb is at the heart of every one of our modern nuclear weapons... it don't take much set one off.
    That's because our weapons are fusion based and fusion does not occur at room temperature. A fission reaction is required to produce the correct level of temperature to allow fusion to occur. Iran is not building a fusion weapon.

    Do you really think it's much secret how that thing works?
    You do realize that weapon was more or less suicide for whoever used it no? Furthermore, the yield on such a weapon was absolutely tiny compared to what we have today. Not to mention that the weapon was an implosion type. Being a single millimeter off in a shape charge will cause the weapon to fail. It's quite a feat of engineering that we actually managed to build such a small implosion type weapon in the first place.

    And using that you could attempt a multistage fusion weapon....
    Come again? You think that a .1 kiloton blast could produce the necessary heat to sustain a fusion reaction from large amounts of HEU?

    MAYBE. But it's real questionable that such a small fission reaction will produce sufficient neutrons among other radiation necessary to cause fusion.
    Last edited by obvious Child; 02-23-09 at 03:26 AM.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

  9. #29
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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    And 40lbs is for an inefficient weapon.
    Not really. In theory 12 lbs of Plutonium could make an extremely efficient weapon well excess of larger weapons we have today. The trick is getting the critical mass to imploded into a superdense core. It's actually part of the reasons why the small sample initiative in the IAEA was criticized.

    Efficiency is actually about yield to critical mass, not necessarily about critical mass alone.

    Really, peanut gallery should not discuss things they do not understand.

    And that was a wasteful pure fission weapon. Most of the weight was the conventional package around the weapon.
    For a fission weapon, it wasn't bad.

    Did you know South Africa once had fully functional nuclear weapons?
    Gun type. Implosion weapons are immensely harder to produce. There's a reason why Iran is using uranium rather then plutonium. Let's see if you can figure out why plutonium cannot be used in a gun type for someone who criticizes others for their alleged lack of knowledge. And gun types are relatively straight forward to build. Except that they cannot be used to produce tiny weapons such as your favorite tactical 3 mile range one. Furthermore, gun types require significently more HEU then implosion weapons do.

    Talking about nuclear weapons as if they were all the same shows a clear ignorance of the issue.

    Also, to make weapons grade plutonium U235 is used in the reactor.
    U238 is a better fuel if you're after plutonium as it's far more common. Historically nuclear breeder reactors, the type the US, USSR, France, Britain and others have used to make plutonium based weapons used 238, not 235.

    So any hoots, it's not so much that a nuclear weapon is hard to build, it ain't.
    It's making a good, deliverable and reliable one that is hard. You know, the kind that fits on top of a missile?

    That ain't what Iran can do at least for the current future. Still, the notion that Iran will actually use it is kind of funny. The likely fact that Iran will scare the pants off everyone else and thus cause them to get weapons is not.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran passes redline, has enough U235 for Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    Nope they just have Al-Qaeda operating in their country. But I guess that isn't a concern of yours is it since Pakistan is a nuclear country.
    Are you reading what he's writing, or are you just making assumptions? He said that ISRAEL is likely more worried about Iran than Pakistan because of those reasons, not himself. While I'm sure Israel cares abotu Al-Qaeda, I'm pretty sure they likely care much more about Iran at the moment due to the comments and sentiment coming out of that countries leadership.

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