UK in recession as economy slides

[Maximus Zeebra]

BBC NEWS | Business | UK in recession as economy slides

Gross domestic product fell by 1.5% in the last three months of 2008 after a 0.6% drop in the previous quarter.

I can easily see the UK contracting by around 10% in 2009 as a total, and that the total of their depression will be that the economy can contract by around 1/3rd.

This I do not see for either the US or the rest or any country in Europe. The US can contract perhaps 5%, and Europe around 2-3% in 2009. All in all, I would be surprised if the US economy shrinked by more than 15% in total before the economic decline is over. I would be surprised if Europe as a total contracted more than 7.5%..

My predictions for 2009..
UK economy shrinking by between 5-10%, probably around 7.5%.
US economy shrinking by between 3-6%, probably around 4%.
EU-27 economies shrinking by between 2-5%, probably around 2.5%
Eurozone-16 economies shrinking by around 2-4%, probably around 2.5%.

 

[ludahai]

The three major developed economies in Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are also all in recession, though Taiwan may come out of it by the end of this year. I am not so confident about Japan or South Korea. Taiwan will likely suffer 1.0-2.5% contraction for the year.

 

[Maximus Zeebra]

The three major developed economies in Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are also all in recession, though Taiwan may come out of it by the end of this year. I am not so confident about Japan or South Korea. Taiwan will likely suffer 1.0-2.5% contraction for the year.

Thank you for the information.

But are you really not confident about Japan? I am actually quite confident that it will not be as severe for Japan as for example South Korea, and much of the west. The Japanese economy isnt really fiscally out of control, and it has huge back up funds of money and a rather well managed economy, I think those things are what makes for an economy that is going to make it though this crisis better..

I am surprised to hear about Taiwan, I would think it would be much more severe considering a large part of their economy is making parts for consumer goods, like electronics and computers.

 

[ludahai]

Thank you for the information.

But are you really not confident about Japan? I am actually quite confident that it will not be as severe for Japan as for example South Korea, and much of the west. The Japanese economy isnt really fiscally out of control, and it has huge back up funds of money and a rather well managed economy, I think those things are what makes for an economy that is going to make it though this crisis better..

I am surprised to hear about Taiwan, I would think it would be much more severe considering a large part of their economy is making parts for consumer goods, like electronics and computers.

I have serious concerns about South Korea. I agree. Japan, however, has a huge debt - the biggest as a % of GDP of the three industrial democracies in the region.

I am not saying things are rosy here in Taiwan, but it isn't as bad as it is in some places. Our banking system is reasonably sound and domestic consumption is higher than it was at the time of the last economic crisis. Furthermore, the economy is more diversified than it was when the tech bubble burst. Still, things will be rough here, especially unskilled workers for the next couple of years.

 

[Maximus Zeebra]

I have serious concerns about South Korea. I agree. Japan, however, has a huge debt - the biggest as a % of GDP of the three industrial democracies in the region.

I am not saying things are rosy here in Taiwan, but it isn't as bad as it is in some places. Our banking system is reasonably sound and domestic consumption is higher than it was at the time of the last economic crisis. Furthermore, the economy is more diversified than it was when the tech bubble burst. Still, things will be rough here, especially unskilled workers for the next couple of years.

But, hmm.. I heard Japan have like the biggest amount of saved up funds in the world... But how and who are the owners of those? I didnt know that the government was so badly mismanaged in Japan, I have always considered Japanese are strick managing type people.. But then again after reading their government debts are almost 6 trillion or a stunning 130% of GDP, the pension fund of 1 trillion looks very small.

Ok then, so I am worried about Japan as well, because in my opinion its the economies which are most indebted which will suffer the most during this economic crisis.

The UK for example has 10 trillion in external debts, just a few trillions behind the US, and the UK is a far smaller economy. I am extremely worried about their economic future, and almost certain their economy will be revalued by the global market in a very negative way.