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Thread: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Give me a break. All this is another attempt of fear mongering to find boogie men that "will harm us and rape our women". We have seen it when it comes to communists and Muslims, and now that the right has lost power in the US, they will use any and all methods to drive fear into the populace so they can take power again and "do something about it". And considering that latinos are the new "enemy" to many on the right due to the immigration issue, and most come through Mexico, then it is only natural that the right would use language and "opinions" like this to drive fear into the average American.. after all it has worked with Communists and Muslims.

    The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
    Wow...another substanceless rant with nothing but off-base opinion and not one iota of fact. Who could have guessed it would have came from Petey.

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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    But other than that, yes Civil Wars do tend to spill over borders, but Mexico is no where near a civil war. It is a criminal war, not unlike the mafia wars of various US cities, or the gang warfare in other US cities.. is the US also on the brink of civil war then? Is the on going mafia war in Naples, a prelude to the collapse of Italy and the EU and a massive European civil war?
    This shows a complete lack of understanding of how severe the problem is in Mexico. First of all, mafia wars simply do not exist in the United States anymore. Gang wars exist, but they're nowhere NEAR on the same scale as the Mexican drug cartels' war with each other and with the police. Juarez is an unbelievably brutal place, with one of the highest murder rates in the world...placing it on par with ghastly places like Caracas and Johannesburg. There were more murders in Juarez in 2008 than there were in Baghdad.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 01-15-09 at 01:52 PM.
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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU
    The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.

    I don't see this as so much a civil war, but more of guerilla-type warfare. If the Mexican government continues to fight, the cartels are only going to recruit more soldiers and fight back in totally unconventional ways. The Mexican government cannot compete with these cartels. That's why there is this warning of the collapse and it should be taken seriously.
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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    This shows a complete lack of understanding of how severe the problem is in Mexico. First of all, mafia wars simply do not exist in the United States anymore. Gang wars exist, but they're nowhere NEAR on the same scale as the Mexican drug cartels' war with each other and with the police. Juarez is an unbelievably brutal place, with one of the highest murder rates in the world...placing it on par with ghastly places like Caracas and Johannesburg. There were more murders in Juarez in 2008 than there were in Baghdad.
    No I fully understand that the situation is very severe in parts of Mexico. And yes the murder capital was in Mexico in 2008, but a massive crime spree between rival gangs in a poor part of a country with the size and diversity of Mexico does not mean that the country is close to civil war..... and that is what I am trying to say.

    The mafia wars of the 1930s were by the standards of the day, just as bloody and dangerous as what is happening in Mexico, does that mean the US was at the brink of civil war at the time?

    The mafia wars in Italy has been going on for decades, with the mafia assassinating rivals, policemen and so on.. does that mean that Italy is on the brink of collapse?

    The gangs of LA, and other cities murder each other over petty things, does that mean California is on the bring of civil war?

    No of course not.

    Should the US be worried about the drug war in Mexico? Hell yes, but not because of a possible non existent civil war in Mexico, but because the war is fuelled by among other things the drug use of Americans, and at some point if it has not already started, this war will spread into the US streets as the gangs will want to gain more territory, and I suspect the other drug gangs already in the US wont like that. I doubt the Russian and other Eastern gangs will be willing to give up turf... and they are not known for their nice tactics.
    PeteEU

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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by americanwoman View Post
    I don't see this as so much a civil war, but more of guerilla-type warfare. If the Mexican government continues to fight, the cartels are only going to recruit more soldiers and fight back in totally unconventional ways. The Mexican government cannot compete with these cartels. That's why there is this warning of the collapse and it should be taken seriously.
    Now that is a whole other matter.

    Yes any government (democratic) can not compete with the money of the drug cartels.. after all look at Colombia.

    But in the end, the US government, hell even Canada and other countries in the region will not allow the Mexican state to fall into a failed state because of a bunch of stupid drug lords.

    In the end, when push comes to shove, the Mexican government will remove all democratic principles and hit hard against the drug gangs and with the full blessing and backing of the US and others. They will use death squad, kill family members, and do mass murder. They will torture and imprison people and restore order with a brutal fist.

    Will it mean many deaths, and chaos in parts of the country.. yes, but it is not a civil war. After all I highly doubt that any political party or politician in Mexico will "back up" the drug lords actions, and since one of the main issues in a civil war is a political strife between parties, then.....
    PeteEU

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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    . And yes the murder capital was in Mexico in 2008, but a massive crime spree between rival gangs in a poor part of a country with the size and diversity of Mexico does not mean that the country is close to civil war..... and that is what I am trying to say.

    That's not what is happening. Mexico's president Calderon is sending military forces to fight the drug cartels in major cities, and they are fighting the military back. It's not the poor part of the country, on the contrary because of the drug influences, they are the richer parts of the country. The farther south you go, excluding tourist places, the poorer it gets and most of the fighting is in the northern part close to the US border. You are correct though about not being close to a civil war.
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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    But in the end, the US government, hell even Canada and other countries in the region will not allow the Mexican state to fall into a failed state because of a bunch of stupid drug lords.

    lol, I can't wait to see the American publics reaction if it comes to that. For some reason lots of Americans have a hatred of Mexicans, whether it stems from immigration issues or just prejudice against them as a nationality. After all, they are invading us right now.
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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    If Mexico were to undergo a dramatic transformation or revolution that would substantially alter its political landscape, that development would not be an unprecedented outcome of a major U.S. economic crisis. In fact, the economic carnage that followed the Panic of 1907 arguably paved the way for the Mexican revolution in 1910.

    From Robert Bruner's and Sean Carr's The Panic of 1907:

    Cahill [Historian Kevin Cahill] suggested that the financial strains in Mexico had political consequences and that the panic and subsequent depression were among the catalysts for the Mexican Revolution. “[Scholars] contend that because Mexico depended heavily on foreign markets and capital, particularly that of the United States,” Cahill wrote, the U.S. depression crippled the Mexican Economy. Generating widespread dissatisfaction with President Porfirio Diaz’s government, it thus was one of the factors that provoked the Maderistas and other revolutionaries to rebellion in 1910.”

    For now, I believe odds are against a Mexican revolution-type event. Such a development is probably more likely in some other countries, particularly underdeveloped ones that have weak political and economic institutions and perhaps a history of ethnic rivalries.

    The collapse of the housing bubble and its after-effects is potentially the kind of rare event that transforms a decade or perhaps longer. It is, by far, the biggest event of the early 21st century and perhaps the most significant one since the start of the Cold War. It will have profound and long-lasting economic, political, and social implications on a global scale.

    It will likely lead to a larger role for government for quite some time. In its wake, the first serious efforts to begin addressing the financial imbalances associated with Social Security and Medicare could emerge. The crisis could transform the way global finance and trade are conducted. It will likely have geopolitical consequences that have broad balance-of-power implications. There will likely be a global effort to move away from exposure to a single reserve currency. Already, on more than one occasion senior financial leaders in Germany and China have made mention of a need to move away from a single reserve currency.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 01-15-09 at 02:48 PM.

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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    No I fully understand that the situation is very severe in parts of Mexico. And yes the murder capital was in Mexico in 2008, but a massive crime spree between rival gangs in a poor part of a country with the size and diversity of Mexico does not mean that the country is close to civil war..... and that is what I am trying to say.
    It's not going to be a Somalia-style civil war...but then, few civil wars are. Mexico does face the real possibility of an extended period of extreme violence between rival factions, which I would classify as a civil war.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU
    The mafia wars of the 1930s were by the standards of the day, just as bloody and dangerous as what is happening in Mexico, does that mean the US was at the brink of civil war at the time?
    The mafia wars of the 1930s were never nearly as bad as what is happening in Mexico today.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU
    The mafia wars in Italy has been going on for decades, with the mafia assassinating rivals, policemen and so on.. does that mean that Italy is on the brink of collapse?
    I have no idea, as I don't know much about the situation there. I just know that I spent about an hour in Naples and have no desire to ever go back.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU
    The gangs of LA, and other cities murder each other over petty things, does that mean California is on the bring of civil war?
    No. Again, there is a big difference in scale between what is happening in LA and what is happening in Juarez. The former is mostly just small-scale, unorganized random crime. The latter is large-scale, organized crime by rival factions warring with each other.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU
    Should the US be worried about the drug war in Mexico? Hell yes, but not because of a possible non existent civil war in Mexico, but because the war is fuelled by among other things the drug use of Americans,
    It's fueled by the PROHIBITION of drugs, not the USE of drugs.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU
    and at some point if it has not already started, this war will spread into the US streets as the gangs will want to gain more territory, and I suspect the other drug gangs already in the US wont like that. I doubt the Russian and other Eastern gangs will be willing to give up turf... and they are not known for their nice tactics.
    Russian and Eastern gangs? In the United States? You watch way too many movies.
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  10. #30
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    Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

    It's pretty sad when these drug cartels are better funded then the Mexican Government. I recall a documentary talking about how much more sophisticated the weapons used by the gangs were.

    This is absolutely an adverse effect of drug prohibition.

    ps. I'm going to be in Mexico in a week.
    Last edited by ARealConservative; 01-15-09 at 02:52 PM.

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