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Thread: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

    Flash estimates say another 700.000 jobs were lost in the US in December, making a probable new unemployment rate at the end of the year 2008 of 7.3%...

    How horrific..

    the US unemployment has now cought up with Europe, and is predicted to race by in a hurry. Europes unemployment has for a long time been in the 7ish % area, while that in the US was as low as 3.8% at the same time..

    I actually told all of you guys this some years ago, that it would happen, in some of my posts.. But no, you wouldnt listen..

    Atm, I would not be surprised to see a future total economic collapse in the US, especially as a result of other bad news that your government is going to have a 2 trillion$ deficit on the federal budget next year. Tax incomes in the US are 2.6 trillion. So 2 trillion in deficits seems quite scary. People will just rush to wherever they can to have their US assets withdrawn, which will again lead to further decline..

    I fear you are stuck in a bad downward spiral, which seems unlikely it will ever stop. And you are dragging other economies with you, Europe for example who is also experiencing economic setbacks, and China with slower growth, while the overall world economy will only grow around 2.5% next year.
    I am aw struck...but wait ,you forgot to look into your crystal ball and tell us the solution to the problem. I saw this comeing years ago too,and I know the answer to the problem. Its to easy though,lets do it the hard way.

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    No, you dont suck, but your crisis is so much huger than you can imagine. And you are throwing a combination of gasoline and wood on the fire.
    WRONG ! We are throwing outsourceing,illegal immigration,and affirmative action onto the fire.It`s all very scientific.We call it the fire triangle.

  3. #13
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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    The Problem here is Iraq. Its cost us half a trillion dollars. What I would do is get out of Iraq, and then stem the money that would be saved from this toward, not to failing banks, but to the many "surviving banks" as LOANS, to be paid back in full in 4, 5 years at 0 interest, at the same time ending the Community Reinestment act. Once the financial crisis is solved and the banks are able to give out loans again, this time responsibly, I would then call for the loans to be repaid(and of course, I would give them more time to pay if they needed it).

    After that, bam, no more deficit and our financial sector is fixed.

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Link? It sounds like you just made that up.
    BBC NEWS | Business | US deficit 'to hit $1 trillion'

    Quote Originally Posted by bbc
    The sharp slowdown in the US economy will push the federal budget deficit to more than $1 trillion, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says
    USA today puts the figure at 1.2 trillion.

    Quote Originally Posted by bbc
    The projected deficit does not include the extra $800bn spending being planned by US President-elect Barack Obama.
    Thats almost 2 trillion..

    2008 United States federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Quote Originally Posted by wikipedia
    Estimated receipts for fiscal year 2008 were $2.66 trillion.
    Quote Originally Posted by wikipedia
    Mandatory spending: $1.788 trillion (+4.2%)
    Quote Originally Posted by wikipedia
    Discretionary spending: $1.114 trillion (+3.1%)
    That makes the total cost(before Iraq and Afgan costs) $2.9 trillion, or a budget deficit for 2008 of 0.24 trillion.
    Quote Originally Posted by wikipedia
    War in Afghanistan are not part included in the regular bidget. Instead they are funded through special appropriations.
    (Appropriations are the same category that most likely the 800 billion dollar stimulus package of Obama would fall into. )

    Financial cost of the Iraq War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    FY2008 Bush administration has proposed around $190 billion for the Iraq War and Afghanistan
    I have read in a source that I cannot find that 84 billion of those were already approved in early budget year 2008 and that the remaining will(or now have) been approved to be part of the 2009 budget period(ending april or something)..

    I cannot find concrete numbers on the Afghan war, but the total cost have reached over 200 billion since 2001. So its safe to assume the annual costs to be around 40ish billion. Lets say total warcost of Iraq and Afganistan for 2008 is 225 billion.

    That brings budget deficit of 2008 to a total of 0.5 trillion.


    The reason that deficits will increase further next year is that tax incomes will fall(slightly or noticeably), and that expenditures will increase like it does every year.
    I have no idea where BBC, USAtoday and other news sources got their numbers from, but its seems very likely yes that regular deficits will be at $1 trillion
    Europe is illegally occupied by the US

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    We will have a budget deficit of approx 1.2 trillion this year, correct. The $775b that Obama is proposing is for next year, not this year. Thus, I see nothing that indicates we will have a $2t deficit next year as you claimed. I think it's more likely that it will be under $1t.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
    The Problem here is Iraq. Its cost us half a trillion dollars. What I would do is get out of Iraq, and then stem the money that would be saved from this toward, not to failing banks, but to the many "surviving banks" as LOANS, to be paid back in full in 4, 5 years at 0 interest, at the same time ending the Community Reinestment act. Once the financial crisis is solved and the banks are able to give out loans again, this time responsibly, I would then call for the loans to be repaid(and of course, I would give them more time to pay if they needed it).

    After that, bam, no more deficit and our financial sector is fixed.
    Without the wars you are still running annual 300 billion $ deficits. I can tell you for example that interest rate payments on government debts for the US government accounts for around 250 billion $ a year. So introducing fiscal responsibility and stopping the wars and paying off debts would put the federal budget into surplus. But then again, debt have to be payed off from some kind of funds, and the only cuts you can allow yorur self is military costs. The debt is 10 trillion, even by cutting military spending with 200 billion a year, it would take you 25 years to halve the government debts and additional 20ish years to get rid of it altogether.


    That however is only part of the problem. Trade deficits, corporate debt and private debt is also a huge problem, mostly trade deficit. In all capitalistic countries private debt and national debt is also a problem, but in most cases the national debt is most severe in the US.
    Europe is illegally occupied by the US

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    We will have a budget deficit of approx 1.2 trillion this year, correct. The $775b that Obama is proposing is for next year, not this year. Thus, I see nothing that indicates we will have a $2t deficit next year as you claimed. I think it's more likely that it will be under $1t.
    Nope.. You will have a deficit of 0.5 trillion in the budget year of 2008. In 2009 it will increase to $1 trillion according to the BBC, and Obamas stimulus package is for 2009 budget year, right? That would put total deficit of 2009 close to $2 trillion. Even if you stop the war in Iraq and cut down 100 billion on military spending, your deficit will still be around $1.5 trillion in total.
    Europe is illegally occupied by the US

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Ahhr. I see i got that a bit wrong. But the average including the stimulous package will be $1.5 trillion this and the next budget year.

    Anyways, its a SEVERE problem and an alarm to everyone who have US based assets..
    Europe is illegally occupied by the US

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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    Nope.. You will have a deficit of 0.5 trillion in the budget year of 2008. In 2009 it will increase to $1 trillion according to the BBC, and Obamas stimulus package is for 2009 budget year, right? That would put total deficit of 2009 close to $2 trillion. Even if you stop the war in Iraq and cut down 100 billion on military spending, your deficit will still be around $1.5 trillion in total.
    My apologies, half of the Obama package is for 2009 while half is for 2010. If those things happen in a vacuum, the deficit could approach $1.6T. However, I think it's incredibly unlikely that will happen, and there is almost no chance that it will reach the $2T level.

    Edit: Further, the $1.2T figure comes from an CBO estimate. The CBO uses a different method than most other analysts, because it calculates the money spent on the TARP program as a loss, rather than as an investment with possible losses down the road.

    For example, the budget office estimated that the present-value cost of the Treasury Departmentís $700 billion bailout program for financial institutions ó known as the Troubled Assets Relief Program ó would be $180 billion in 2009. The agency said that estimate was based on its judgment of the programís risks and probable losses over time.

    In addition, the budget office said it included all the money used in propping up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance companies that the Treasury seized in September and put into a conservatorship. Those costs would add $240 billion to the deficit in 2009.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/bu...eficit.html?em

    If calculated the way that other agencies do, that would make the figure more like $780b before Obama's stimulus.
    Last edited by RightinNYC; 01-07-09 at 08:04 PM.
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    Re: Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Link? It sounds like you just made that up.
    Come on, NYC, you know he did.
    Quote Originally Posted by SWM
    I never thought infanticide could be so delicious.

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