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Thread: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

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    Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Une trêve de 48 heures à Gaza ? - lesoir.be

    "Israel may accept a 48 hours truce to allow Hamas to stop launching rockets.
    If this is not the case, Israel could launch a ground offensive.

    That could be a consequence of European and UN strong diplomatic pressures.
    In the meantime, Arab countries press Egypt to open its border with Gaza.

    As for the Hamas, it said that the end of the blockade would make them stop launching rockets.

    So far, Israel has never succeeded in preventing rockets to be launched, even when it uses the military way, while at least 64 civilians have been killed, according the the UN. Hamas has promised that in case of ground offensive, rockets would be launched every day."

    The article also says that while the first raids have killed many members of the Hamas, they now destroy empty buildings and uselessly endanger the life of civilians.

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    IMO, Israel should reject any ceasefire along those terms for the following reasons:

    1. It would achieve no meaningful security gains for Israel.
    2. It would not achieve the release of Cpl. Shalit.
    3. Hamas would gain from conditioning a halt (almost certainly temporary) in its rocketfire to Israel's opening Gaza's crossings. Hence, Israel would only be able to return to the status quo ante by making fresh concessions to Hamas.
    4. Hamas would achieve its gains without meeting the Madrid Quartet's minimal conditions (recognition of Israel's right to exist, abandon violence, respect existing diplomatic agreements).
    5. Hamas would gain a respite during which it could rebuild its capacities. Given the lessons of post-2006 Lebanon in which Hezbollah rearmed, the medium-term result would be reduced security for Israel.
    6. Hamas would retain control of the Gaza Strip, undermining potential Arab moderates.

    Such an outcome would leave Hamas to declare it had succeeded. Should Israel open its crossings with the Gaza Strip, Hamas would be positioned to argue that its methods can bring about gains while the diplomatic process cannot. Israel, in the meantime, would face another muddled military outcome and its capacity to deter future acts of agression would further erode. Therefore, Israel should reject any arrangements along the lines described in Le Soir. Such an arrangement runs counter to Israel's interests.

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    IMO, Israel should reject any ceasefire along those terms for the following reasons:

    1. It would achieve no meaningful security gains for Israel.
    2. It would not achieve the release of Cpl. Shalit.
    3. Hamas would gain from conditioning a halt (almost certainly temporary) in its rocketfire to Israel's opening Gaza's crossings. Hence, Israel would only be able to return to the status quo ante by making fresh concessions to Hamas.
    4. Hamas would achieve its gains without meeting the Madrid Quartet's minimal conditions (recognition of Israel's right to exist, abandon violence, respect existing diplomatic agreements).
    5. Hamas would gain a respite during which it could rebuild its capacities. Given the lessons of post-2006 Lebanon in which Hezbollah rearmed, the medium-term result would be reduced security for Israel.
    6. Hamas would retain control of the Gaza Strip, undermining potential Arab moderates.

    Such an outcome would leave Hamas to declare it had succeeded. Should Israel open its crossings with the Gaza Strip, Hamas would be positioned to argue that its methods can bring about gains while the diplomatic process cannot. Israel, in the meantime, would face another muddled military outcome and its capacity to deter future acts of agression would further erode. Therefore, Israel should reject any arrangements along the lines described in Le Soir. Such an arrangement runs counter to Israel's interests.
    But since they are unable to destroy the Hamas and that they are bombing empty buildings, what is the point of keeping on bombing Gaza?

    (and according to Le Figaro it would be a French or European truce proposal. Livni is going to Paris on tuesday and will discuss about it)
    Last edited by bub; 12-30-08 at 03:13 PM.

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    4. Hamas would achieve its gains without meeting the Madrid Quartet's minimal conditions (recognition of Israel's right to exist, abandon violence, respect existing diplomatic agreements).
    The Quartet himself asks for a ceasefire

    Le Quartette demande le cessez-le-feu à Gaza

    mardi 30.12.2008, 20:35
    Le Quartette pour le Proche-Orient a demandé mardi un cessez-le-feu immédiat à Gaza qui soit « pleinement respecté », selon un compte-rendu publié par l’ONU à l’issue d’une conférence téléphonique des membres du Quartette.
    le fil info - lesoir.be

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by bub View Post
    But since they are unable to destroy the Hamas and that they are bombing empty buildings, what is the point of keeping on bombing Gaza?

    (and according to Le Figaro it would be a French or European truce proposal. Livni is going to Paris on tuesday and will discuss about it)
    So give up, right? ~Sheesh~

    Look, Hamas launches rockets nearly every day anyway, regardless of whether there's an active blockade.

    I cannot believe objective journalists can report Hamas's demands and offers of ceasefire with a straight face.

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by JMak View Post
    So give up, right? ~Sheesh~

    Look, Hamas launches rockets nearly every day anyway, regardless of whether there's an active blockade.

    I cannot believe objective journalists can report Hamas's demands and offers of ceasefire with a straight face.
    Israel's latest blockade of Gaza is threatening to destroy the territory's commercial sector and drive more people into the hands of extremists, according to a report published yesterday.
    Blockade helps Gaza militants, says report | World news | The Guardian

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Right. It's Israel's fault that there are extremists. If Israel would give up their sovereignty and abandon the Middle East there would be no extremists.

    Sheesh, where do you people come from? You're just the equivalent Blame America Firster blaming Israel for being attacked by terrorists.

    The blockade only helps the terrorists...errr...militants because those they are converting are equally anti-Semitic as they are and like the terrorists want to see Israel wiped off the map. So they're gullible dullards completely brainwashed by propaganda...so what?

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by JMak View Post
    Right. It's Israel's fault that there are extremists. If Israel would give up their sovereignty and abandon the Middle East there would be no extremists.

    Sheesh, where do you people come from? You're just the equivalent Blame America Firster blaming Israel for being attacked by terrorists.

    The blockade only helps the terrorists...errr...militants because those they are converting are equally anti-Semitic as they are and like the terrorists want to see Israel wiped off the map. So they're gullible dullards completely brainwashed by propaganda...so what?
    It's not me who says that, it's an Israeli report.

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by bub View Post
    Une trêve de 48 heures à Gaza ? - lesoir.be

    "Israel may accept a 48 hours truce to allow Hamas to stop launching rockets.
    If this is not the case, Israel could launch a ground offensive.

    That could be a consequence of European and UN strong diplomatic pressures.
    In the meantime, Arab countries press Egypt to open its border with Gaza.

    As for the Hamas, it said that the end of the blockade would make them stop launching rockets.

    So far, Israel has never succeeded in preventing rockets to be launched, even when it uses the military way, while at least 64 civilians have been killed, according the the UN. Hamas has promised that in case of ground offensive, rockets would be launched every day."

    The article also says that while the first raids have killed many members of the Hamas, they now destroy empty buildings and uselessly endanger the life of civilians.
    Fool me once, shame on you (Hamas)
    Fool me twice, shame on me (Israel)

    Human Taxidermist - - now offering his services for all your loved ones
    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    How the hell did you just tie in a retroactive reparative measure with a proactive preventative measure. Not even close to being the same thing.

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    Re: Possible ceasefire in Gaza

    Quote Originally Posted by bub View Post
    "Israel may accept a 48 hours truce to allow Hamas to stop launching rockets.
    If this is not the case, Israel could launch a ground offensive.

    As for the Hamas, it said that the end of the blockade would make them stop launching rockets.
    I've asked this before, and I havent gotten an answer:

    IF the reason for the rocket attacks is the blockade, why isnt Hamas hitting Egypt with rockets?

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