Kansas lawmakers jump-start debate over repealing tax break[W:262]

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Absentglare said:

The right realized that they cannot really adopt an explicit "let people starve to death" policy, but they needed to retain the goal of stealing from the poor to give to the rich, so they approached it from a budgetary standpoint by using tax cuts and their resulting deficits to force spending cuts.

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That "forced spending cuts" part IS working in Kansas. Predictably, the only citizens who like the results are the Koch brothers and ALEC flunkies who live there. What Brownback promised was that businesses would flock there to take advantage of their little utopia and everyone would win. If anything, the opposite is happening. Now ALEC is writing apologetics claiming that their policies are having a hard time working in KS because is has a one dimensional economy. :doh

ALEC at Moderate Party of Kansas


Kansas ROADmap may be Less Traveled for a Reason - MainStream Coalition

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Mr Person said:

Kansas destroyed its revenue stream.

You can quote theory all you like, but this and prior federal attempts at supply side tax policy have simply failed to do what that theory said it would do.

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You might want to take a little more differentiating view of fiscal policies. I realize that the political people and less technical media tend to simplify and give the simplifications populist spin. I watched a Bernie Sanders demo of this today on CNN. It was a horrible mixture of true tidbits, half truths and outrageous falsehood. That is how this is. But alone the use of terms like supply side policies is awfully deceptive, if it isn't accompanied in professional expertise.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

joG said:

You might want to take a little more differentiating view of fiscal policies.

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Why? We can simply look at Kansas' poor economic growth post-tax cuts and form a conclusion based on that. KS' economic growth was below the US' over the period of the Brownback Tax Cuts. There's no way around it; tax cuts are a failed policy idea with nefarious motives.

But alone the use of terms like supply side policies is awfully deceptive, if it isn't accompanied in professional expertise.

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It doesn't matter how or what you call them, trickle-down, supply-side, it all results in the same thing: poor growth and increased deficits.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

It's not a blueprint for economies, it's a blueprint for taxation. And the blueprint shows serious structural flaws in the taxation in Kansas. BTW - Mitch McConnell said when the KS tax cuts were passed that he wanted to do the same thing federally.

Your second point seems like a cop-out, cut-and-run to me. You wouldn't believe me if I said I was Tom Brady, so why should I believe you when you make claims about yourself?

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As I said above, I haven't enough information of the policy mix used in Kansas to give more than the textbook opinion and haven't received the impression that any of the commentary had such.

As to point two, I was only warning you of the impression opinions like the one you issued make on informed persons. But be my guest and embarrass yourself. Maybe the clapping from those that prefer populism feels more rewarding to you. It is certainly easier that applying economics.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

joG said:

Reducing taxes and spending increases efficiency

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No, it doesn't. It only increases debt, as we've seen in Kansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Wisconsin, and nationally during Bush the Dumber.

if the correct taxes are cut

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Ah, so the goalposts move. So which taxes are the "correct" ones to cut? Let me guess what you'll say; income and business taxes, right?

non public goods and such expenditures

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Such as defense spending? Yeah, we could definitely cut spending there. Hard to see from where else you can cut since Medicare, Social Security, and Defense make up about 80% of the budget.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

Exactly...and those spending cuts are almost always operational, which causes the programs to fail, which then gives Conservatives an excuse to sell them off to private interests for profit.

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Yup, and then they use those businesses donations to buy more votes and repeat the cycle. Very effective. Better yet, they accuse democrats of doing the same thing, of "buying" votes by ... *gasp* ... providing services for their constituents!! No, republicans, that's not buying votes, that's just representing interests in a republic, you know, what you guys could do if you weren't owned by the rich.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

faithful_servant said:

I never said that tax cuts alone aren't a good thing. What I was trying to say was that they done best when coupled with spending cuts. By themselves, tax cuts help, add in spending cuts and they help a lot more. Then throw in systems which reduce the need for spending and you have the best situation. Tax increase just increase spending, spending just enables more spending (by building dependency).

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That's just circular logic. Based on your logic, civilization was better in anarchy than it is today. You should find that absurdity suspicious.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

Why? We can simply look at Kansas' poor economic growth post-tax cuts and form a conclusion based on that. KS' economic growth was below the US' over the period of the Brownback Tax Cuts. There's no way around it; tax cuts are a failed policy idea with nefarious motives.

It doesn't matter how or what you call them, trickle-down, supply-side, it all results in the same thing: poor growth and increased deficits.

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Not "simply". "Simplistically" is the word that would fit. While true that a hypothesis should be tested and can falsify it, it is not true that one needn't know the experiment before claiming such falsification.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

joG said:

While true that a hypothesis should be tested and can falsify it, it is not true that one needn't know the experiment before claiming such falsification.

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But the experiment has been done in Kansas and it failed.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

Where's 2012 and 2013? And no, it's not a shortfall in projections, but rather actual revenue.




Not income taxes. Excise taxes, yes, but those have more of an impact on the poor and middle class than the 1%. And secondly, you say revenue was $6.1B in 2012, then you say that revenue was below 2012 levels for 2013, 2014, and 2015. It took 4 years for revenue to reach what it was prior to the tax cuts. And where's all the growth? KS lagged the nation in GDP growth over that same period.

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Does it matter? They have more tax money than before the tax cuts, in just a few years. From your article:

And — hey — Kansas still took in more money in the 2016 fiscal year than in the 2015 fiscal year!

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All they have to do is control spending and they get the same govt and lower taxes. And yes, the economy is doing ok. Unemployment is 3.7%. GDP grew by 10 billion since 2012.

Forbes Welcome

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

jonny5 said:

Does it matter? They have more tax money than before the tax cuts, in just a few years. From your article

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LOL! It took 4 years for revenue to reach the level it was prior to the tax cuts. And even then, they're still running a massive deficit.

All they have to do is control spending and they get the same govt and lower taxes.

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Not only did Kansas cut spending, but they raided the Highway Fund to close the deficits created by the dumb tax cuts.

Furthermore, the "adrenaline" Brownback promised the tax cuts would bring to the economy never materialized.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

jonny5 said:

And yes, the economy is doing ok.

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If you consider lagging behind the US' GDP growth, then I guess. But I would say that growth below the national average isn't "ok". And we were promised the tax cuts would be "a shot of adrenaline" into the Kansas economy. They weren't.

Unemployment is 3.7%.

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Yes, but Kansas ranks 49th in wage growth. So there are people employed in Kansas, they are just stuck in sh*tty jobs with nowhere to go. Furthermore, the decline in unemployment in Kansas also lags behind the national average.

GDP grew by 10 billion since 2012.

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Which is a lower GDP growth rate than the nation over the same period. Kansas drags down the American economy.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

But the experiment has been done in Kansas and it failed.

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It was an experiment. That it was "the" experiment is less true. As I pointed out more than once here, you would have to look at the details that nobody here seems to supply and I am not enough interested in this case to look up.

At this point the Kansas experience might be good propaganda. As it is being used, it has little informational value.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Mr Person said:

Kansas destroyed its revenue stream.

You can quote theory all you like, but this and prior federal attempts at supply side tax policy have simply failed to do what that theory said it would do.

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Did Kansas reduce spending commensurate with the tax reductions? Yes, or no.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

So it takes spending cuts in order for tax cuts to work? Brownback said the tax cuts would be "a shot of adrenaline". What adrenaline takes more than 5 years to kick in?

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What does O'Bama have to do with this? :roll:

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

joG said:

It was an experiment. That it was "the" experiment is less true.

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Ummm...it was billed as "the" experiment. Brownback even flew in Arthur Laffer to go around and tout the wild promises made of that stupid policy.

In fact, here's what Brownback literally said: "“My focus is to create a red-state model that allows the Republican ticket to say, ‘See, we’ve got a different way, and it works.’ ”

McConnell said of the tax cuts in 2012: "“This is exactly the sort of thing we (Republicans) want to do here, in Washington, but can’t, at least for now.”"

At this point the Kansas experience might be good propaganda.

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It's not propaganda. The policy itself is propaganda. How it was sold to Kansans was propaganda. Its results aren't.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

countryboy said:

Did Kansas reduce spending commensurate with the tax reductions? Yes, or no.

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Yes. Not only did they cut spending, but they raided the Highway Fund and Welfare Block Grant.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

Yes. Not only did they cut spending, but they raided the Highway Fund and Welfare Block Grant.

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It is truly tragic to see that the best defense that the right can muster of this unequivocal policy failure is ignorance.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Absentglare said:

It is truly tragic to see that the best defense that the right can muster of this unequivocal policy failure is ignorance.

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Or they try to make it a philosophical argument about "letting people keep more of what they earn" presumably so they can spend that on increased sales and excise taxes, and higher fees for things like driver's licenses, state school tuition, or tolls in order to make up for the revenue gap caused by their taxation policies.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

countryboy said:

Did Kansas reduce spending commensurate with the tax reductions? Yes, or no.

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If you want a yes or no answer, do not move the goalposts with the question.

Supply-side tax policy politicians think or claim to think that cutting taxes will spur so much growth that they don't need to cut spending, that the growth will produce enough new tax payers that revenue will remain the same or in fact increase. Kansas tried to do that. It failed, just as it has every time.

It fails for a reason that people who at least bothered with one entry level economics course should understand: businesses hire new employees or otherwise invest where doing so will allow that business to meet existing demand.

If there isn't new demand to meet, the business does neither, regardless of what the tax policy is. Nobody is going to hire a worker that doesn't provide any new benefit just because they got a tax cut. DUH. But supply side tax policy assumes they do. (Well, if you take it at its word. Look a little closer and it's obvious the people pushing those policies just want to help a certain constituency).




You're talking something about different. You're talking about "shrinking government", which might actually happen if you got rid of some agencies, then calculated how much tax cuts you can afford with tanking revenue, and then you'd cut taxes by that amount. That's not what Kansas did and it's not what "supply side tax policy" refers to, which IS why you were moving the goalpost.

You're trying to defend tax-slashing policies by suggesting Kansas's failure was in just not cutting spending. Quite the opposite. Kansas's failure was buying into Laffer stupid BS, just like most conservatives have done since Reagan. It simply doesn't do what they claim it will; for it to work, our tax rates would have to be astronomical compared to where they are today.

(But as others have pointed out: yes, Kansas did try to cut some spending. That was after the fact. The spending cuts weren't anywhere near enough to make up for the budget shortfall because, again, supply side tax policy just doesn't work.

And they cannot realistically make more cuts because it turns out that government actually does do a lot of things, which things even conservatives miss when they go away. ).

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Incisor said:

Ummm...it was billed as "the" experiment. Brownback even flew in Arthur Laffer to go around and tout the wild promises made of that stupid policy.

In fact, here's what Brownback literally said: "“My focus is to create a red-state model that allows the Republican ticket to say, ‘See, we’ve got a different way, and it works.’ ”

McConnell said of the tax cuts in 2012: "“This is exactly the sort of thing we (Republicans) want to do here, in Washington, but can’t, at least for now.”"

It's not propaganda. The policy itself is propaganda. How it was sold to Kansans was propaganda. Its results aren't.

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I never said politicians don't use economists' simplifications for populist purposes. I was not arguing Brownback's position.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

I am always amazed at the vitriol directed at Kansas in general and Brownback in specific. I don't get it. Thomas Frank wrote a book, What's Wrong with Kansas that attempted to explain problems at the time under Dem Governor Sibelius. I read it and did not see the problem. And now this budget issue. $342 million is less than 2% of Kansas government revenues. Currently Kansas has one of the lowest debt to revenue ratios of 37% so a slight increase won't kill them. Some states have debt to revenues ratios of more than 75%. The average for states is 51%. The federal budget operates with deficits c. 10% of revenues.

On the personal side, Kansas has average income per capita but less than average cost of living. It is better to make the average of $52K/yr in Kansas's .92 Cost of Living than to make Connecticut's $70K/yr in a 1.45 cost of living state. Adjusting for cost of living, Kansas's $56,521/yr is better than Conn's $48,505. Kansas also has better income equality than most other states. I would not want to live in Kansas for other factors but economically they seem to be doing rather well.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

joG said:

I never said politicians don't use economists' simplifications for populist purposes. I was not arguing Brownback's position.

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Sure reads like you were! But OK, I guess I'll give you a pass here because I'm such a nice guy.

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

jonny5 said:

Thats a shortfall in projections. According to the actual numbers revenue is up.

2014 5.6bn
2015 5.9bn
2016 6.3bn

Kansas Division of the Budget

Taxes are higher now than before the tax cuts in 2012, when revenue was 6.1bn

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But since 2013, individual income taxes have fallen from 2.9B to 2.3B. Corporate income taxes are roughly the same, sales taxes are up, and as you can see in that 2016 number there are about $315M of 'other' including transfers of 240M versus roughly zero in 2014.

Bottom line is the income tax numbers cratered and haven't recovered. What has recovered are sales taxes, thanks to tax rate increases and slow growth, and one time charges and transfers.



Analysis here: The Kansas Budget: July 2016

Re: Brownback Tax Cuts a bust...Kansas State Legislature now fixing to repeal

Eric7216 said:

I am always amazed at the vitriol directed at Kansas in general and Brownback in specific. I don't get it. Thomas Frank wrote a book, What's Wrong with Kansas that attempted to explain problems at the time under Dem Governor Sibelius. I read it and did not see the problem. And now this budget issue. $342 million is less than 2% of Kansas government revenues. Currently Kansas has one of the lowest debt to revenue ratios of 37% so a slight increase won't kill them. Some states have debt to revenues ratios of more than 75%. The average for states is 51%. The federal budget operates with deficits c. 10% of revenues.

On the personal side, Kansas has average income per capita but less than average cost of living. It is better to make the average of $52K/yr in Kansas's .92 Cost of Living than to make Connecticut's $70K/yr in a 1.45 cost of living state. Adjusting for cost of living, Kansas's $56,521/yr is better than Conn's $48,505. Kansas also has better income equality than most other states. I would not want to live in Kansas for other factors but economically they seem to be doing rather well.

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I really don't see how you conclude Kansas is "doing well" based on a low cost of living (not an indication that things are "going well"...quite the opposite, actually), or the fact that it ranks 49th in the nation in income growth since the tax cuts started. Throw in the fact that its GDP growth is below the national average, and you don't get a picture of a state that is doing well at all.

The issue is that Conservatives made such a pronouncement of the Brownback Tax Cuts, holding them up as a "model" for the rest of the nation, that now they are in the awkward position of defending something they know they cannot. So that's why they feign ignorance.