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Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

Excon

Excon

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Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

President-elect Donald Trump's policies have the potential to trigger a new age in U.S. economic growth that could serve as a global template, according to a Deutsche Bank forecast.

Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level under an agenda that cuts regulations across a broad swath of critical sectors, enacts tax reform that slashes personal and corporate taxes, and calls for at least $1 trillion in improvements for bridges, roads and other public projects.

"This policy mix has the potential of reigniting productivity growth and raising U.S. growth potential," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report for clients. "While Trump introduces higher uncertainty, this is better than the near certainty of the continuation of a mediocre status quo."

The impact may not be felt immediately, but once the new agenda kicks in it will serve as a "game changer for the U.S. economy," Folkerts-Landau added.

[...]


Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says
​



Interesting.
I guess we will have to wait and see.


Trump may be changing how our future leaders go about things.
 
Given past track records, I surely hope so.
 
I agree with cutting corporate tax and lowering income tax for ALL (not just the rich).

But economic stimuli don't do anything long term except increase the deficit and huge tariffs will KILL all this growth DB is talking about.

Trump has some good ideas and some awful ones.

It just depends which - if any - become law.

But it is ridiculously early to be predicting a doubling of GDP.
 
DA60 said:
But it is ridiculously early to be predicting a doubling of GDP.
Click to expand...
Which is probably why they said "potential".
 
Excon said:
Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

President-elect Donald Trump's policies have the potential to trigger a new age in U.S. economic growth that could serve as a global template, according to a Deutsche Bank forecast.

Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level under an agenda that cuts regulations across a broad swath of critical sectors, enacts tax reform that slashes personal and corporate taxes, and calls for at least $1 trillion in improvements for bridges, roads and other public projects.

"This policy mix has the potential of reigniting productivity growth and raising U.S. growth potential," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report for clients. "While Trump introduces higher uncertainty, this is better than the near certainty of the continuation of a mediocre status quo."

The impact may not be felt immediately, but once the new agenda kicks in it will serve as a "game changer for the U.S. economy," Folkerts-Landau added.

[...]


Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says
​



Interesting.
I guess we will have to wait and see.


Trump may be changing how our future leaders go about things.
Click to expand...

Makes me wonder what sort of inflation rate would go along with doubling the GDP.
 
Excon said:
Interesting.
I guess we will have to wait and see.

Trump may be changing how our future leaders go about things.
Click to expand...

Enacting a policy of permanent fiscal stimulus would surely boost economic output. With little means of obstruction in his path, combined with some powerful bargaining chips (the SCOTUS nomination comes first to mind), U.S. GDP can very will see a massive upswing during the initial phase of his presidency. However, given that labor market slack is minimal, how beneficial will persistent deficits that flirt with $1 trillion annually be for long term economic growth? If fiscal policy isn't cut back during periods of heavy economic growth, it has great potential to crowd out private investment, and severely reduce economic efficiency in the medium to long term.
 
Excon said:
Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says
...
President-elect Donald Trump's policies have the potential to trigger a new age in U.S. economic growth that could serve as a global template, according to a Deutsche Bank forecast.....
Trump may be changing how our future leaders go about things....​
Click to expand...
LOL
YOUR link also includes:
""The analysis also takes a more optimistic view of Trump's expected "America first" agenda when compared with other Wall Street views that have cited the danger of a potentially isolationist U.S. that starts trade wars with global competitors.""​

and of course/Ooops

When Donald Trump Needs a Loan, He Chooses Deutsche Bank
Despite some clashes, the Republican front-runner has been a regular client of the German lender
By ANUPREETA DAS
Updated March 20, 2016 1:35 p.m. ET
When Donald Trump Needs a Loan, He Chooses Deutsche Bank - WSJ

One of Donald Trump’s closest allies on Wall Street is a now-struggling German bank.

While many big banks have Shunned him, Deutsche Bank AG has been a steadfast financial backer of the Republican presidential candidate’s business interests.
Since 1998, the bank has led or participated in loans of at least $2.5 billion to companies affiliated with Mr. Trump, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of public records and people familiar with the matter.

That doesn’t include at least another $1 billion in loan commitments that Deutsche Bank made to Trump-affiliated entities.
[......]​
​
 
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Kushinator said:
Enacting a policy of permanent fiscal stimulus would surely boost economic output. With little means of obstruction in his path, combined with some powerful bargaining chips (the SCOTUS nomination comes first to mind), U.S. GDP can very will see a massive upswing during the initial phase of his presidency. However, given that labor market slack is minimal, how beneficial will persistent deficits that flirt with $1 trillion annually be for long term economic growth? If fiscal policy isn't cut back during periods of heavy economic growth, it has great potential to crowd out private investment, and severely reduce economic efficiency in the medium to long term.
Click to expand...

Like I said; "I guess we will have to wait and see."
 
Excon said:
Which is probably why they said "potential".
Click to expand...

Which means it is a totally worthless report...not that I regret you posting it.

ANYTHING can 'potentially' happen.

Sounds like this author was told by his/her superiors to write a positive report about America's future under Trump - and he/she threw in the 'potential' part to cover his butt.
 
DA60 said:
Which means it is a totally worthless report...not that I regret you posting it.

ANYTHING can 'potentially' happen.

Sounds like this author was told by his/her superiors to write a positive report about America's future under Trump - and he/she threw in the 'potential' part to cover his butt.
Click to expand...

This is why we discuss the possibilities.
 
DA60 said:
Which means it is a totally worthless report...not that I regret you posting it.

ANYTHING can 'potentially' happen.

Sounds like this author was told by his/her superiors to write a positive report about America's future under Trump - and he/she threw in the 'potential' part to cover his butt.
Click to expand...
If it had come from just an anywho it would be worthless, as is, no.

But as I said; "I guess we will have to wait and see."
 
WCH said:
This is why we discuss the possibilities.
Click to expand...

But to what end?

I have been in the investment business for over 20 years. And I have learned there is no point whatsoever in speculating when there are zero facts to go on.

And since Trump is not in office yet AND has shown time and again to not do what he said he would do - why would DB even bother to speculate?

I assume it is because they are trying to butter up their clients to fork over more money for their investment portfolios.

One thing I have learned about major banks...they have virtually NO IDEA about macroeconomics.
 
Excon said:
If it had come from just an anywho it would be worthless, as is, no.

But as I said; "I guess we will have to wait and see."
Click to expand...

I have learned that major banks are almost totally clueless about macroeconomics.

Bankers are usually great bean counters...but awful economists/investors (the Fed being a prime example - which is made up of bankers).

In my book, they are an 'anywho'.

If every major bank said 'the market will crash soon'. I would assume the markets are ripe for a boom.
 
WCH said:
Unless I get some unforeseen bump in my income, I hope inflation is kept to a minimum.
Click to expand...

Oh, I'm sure that trickle down will ensure that you get something, right?
 
Excon said:
I am not stopping you from "fruitfully" discussing it.
Click to expand...

You've chosen to repeat yourself in nearly every response throughout your thread. In other words, you are stopping yourself. This comes as a tremendous shock! /s
 
DA60 said:
If every major bank said 'the market will crash soon'. I would assume the markets are ripe for a boom.
Click to expand...

That's funny! I hold the same reasoning towards your predictions! :lamo
 
DA60 said:
But to what end?

I have been in the investment business for over 20 years. And I have learned there is no point whatsoever in speculating when there are zero facts to go on.

And since Trump is not in office yet AND has shown time and again to not do what he said he would do - why would DB even bother to speculate?

I assume it is because they are trying to butter up their clients to fork over more money for their investment portfolios.

One thing I have learned about major banks...they have virtually NO IDEA about macroeconomics.
Click to expand...

I'm here to learn.
 
Kushinator said:
You've chosen to repeat yourself in nearly every response throughout your thread. In other words, you are stopping yourself.
Click to expand...

iLOL
As I said; "I guess we will have to wait and see."

As I also said. "I am not stopping you from having a fruitful discussion."
Do you or do you not understand these things?
 
Excon said:
Do you or do you not understand these things?
Click to expand...

I do understand that you've chosen to avoid posting with substance. The repeated nine word string is easily the most worthless contribution to this thread... and coming from the OP, that's just sad (but expected!).

Carry on.

:coffeepap
 
Kushinator said:
I do understand that you've chosen to avoid posting with substance.
Click to expand...
Wrong as usual.
The information provided is the substance of the post.
I also see you deflect from answering the question. So typical.

My statement clearly covers my thoughts on it, "wait and see". I do not need to expound on that, nor does it stop you from having a fruitful discusion.
You thinking such is what is ridiculous.
 
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