Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

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Cool. Let's see his reaction when his prediction turns out to he wrong.

Any links showing him making predictions in last 5 elections?

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

I have accurately predicted the last 9 elections. Trump only wins if there is a major event between now and election.

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

I hope this does not confuse you too much, but I am going to throw some math at you. The odds of guessing a coin flip 5 times in a row is 1 in 32. In other words, if 100 people try, on average 3 people will do it. Predicting an election is a whole lot easier than predicting a coin flip. Of those 5 elections, only one was really in doubt at election time. So that "remarkable record" lacks to be remarkable, or even unusual.

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

Cool story bro.

Lmao.

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

Well then, cancel the election, crown Trump Emperor, and learn to bow down when in his presence. Think I will wait on the actual election and me thinks someone's record is going to take a hit.

This popped up on my Facebook feed from one of my RWNJ relatives. Been waiting for it to show up here and I'm far from surprised on who posted it.

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

It's not actually a "remarkable" record. Bill Clinton's 2nd, and the two Obama victories weren't very hard to predict - all those were 'conventional wisdom' before the fact. The Bush II first one was a tie, essentially, and Bush lost the popular vote, so I'm not sure that counts for anything. So basically, he picked the reelection of Bush II, and picking a wartime POTUS with a decent economy is what any braindead 'pundit' would do. Not really impressed at all.

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

Um, I have a visual....

Redress said:

I hope this does not confuse you too much, but I am going to throw some math at you. The odds of guessing a coin flip 5 times in a row is 1 in 32. In other words, if 100 people try, on average 3 people will do it. Predicting an election is a whole lot easier than predicting a coin flip. Of those 5 elections, only one was really in doubt at election time. So that "remarkable record" lacks to be remarkable, or even unusual.

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Didn't read yours before responding or I'd just have typed....What s/he said^^^^^

Also, too, the Redskin Rule (whether they won their last home game) predicted the winner of every POTUS election from 1936 thru 2000! 16 straight elections!!

Redress said:

Of those 5 elections, only one was really in doubt at election time. So that "remarkable record" lacks to be remarkable, or even unusual.

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Took the words out of my mouth. Under the usual status quo, it's no feat to predict the outcome of an election cycle at its twilight, considering the wealth of available polls establishing a pattern leading to a specific end and the predictability of the candidates playing by the same rules. This election is the exception; someone's ability to predict its antecedents is hardly a testament of his ability to predict it. In fact, the logical conclusion of this rationale is to reject the prediction of someone who's unaware of the peculiarity of this election and is relying on his past electoral knowledge to predict it.

Let's look at all Presidential elections from 1948 on and see how many were tough to predict:

1948: Difficult. Truman's popularity waned due to the his support of civil rights legislation, the economy, and labor issues. Also, there were 2 third party candidates, one of whom would siphon Democrat votes, the other Republican votes... and more importantly, Republican electoral votes.
1952: Easy. War heroes usually win.
1956: Easy. Economy was booming.
1960: Somewhat difficult. Nixon had experience; Kennedy had both popularity and came across better.
1964: Easy, easy, easy. Extremists never win.
1968: Challenging, though I really wouldn't say difficult. The Democratic Party was in shambles (similar to the Republican Party in 2016); Robert Kennedy was dead, Civil Rights legislation had destroyed the southern strategy, and LBJ's policy in Vietnam was not well liked at all. Nixon had to avoid mistakes, which he did.
1972: Easy, not only because Nixon made sure of it. Even without that, McGovern had no chance. He was like Goldwater on the left.
1976: Difficult. Carter was not the reason, though. Ford's pardoning of Nixon was a major factor... as was the economy and Vietnam. Even with all that, Ford almost won.
1980: Easy. The economy sucked and Iran had the hostages.
1984: Easy. Mondale was almost as far left as McGovern. And the economy was back in business, to some extent.
1988: Easy. Bush was on Reagan's coat tails... good coat tails to be on.
1992: Easy. The economy again. Also Clinton presented MUCH better than Bush.
1996: Easy. The economy was good again.
2000: Difficult. Gore should have made the election an easier win for himself, but distancing himself from positive Clinton policies (in order to distance himself from the Clinton scandals) hurt him. The scandals made this a "pick 'em".
2004: Easy. Wartime Presidents, when the war is going well, pretty much never lose.
2008: Easy. The economy sucked.
2012: Challenging but not difficult. The economy was getting better. Romney made some gaffes. Romney was actually seen as somewhat similar to Obama.

OK, so since 1948, there have been 3 difficult to call elections, 3 challenging, but not real difficult to call elections, and 11 easy to call elections. Predicting Presidential elections really isn't that difficult.

This year's turnout is a complete mystery.

Democrats and the media are trying to suppress it with constant claims of a Hillary landslide.

We'll see.

Erod said:

This year's turnout is a complete mystery.

Democrats and the media are trying to suppress it with constant claims of a Hillary landslide.

We'll see.

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Suppress? :lamo Trump has done all this himself with his own words and actions. Man you are in for a rude awakening after nov 8 when your man child loses

Erod said:

This year's turnout is a complete mystery.

Democrats and the media are trying to suppress it with constant claims of a Hillary landslide.

We'll see.

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...Trump's "its rigged [so why bother?]" mantra isn't exactly selling the importance of voting.

Of course, Trump hinting that he is about to be robbed is now motivating the Clinton campaign to pivot toward selling the urgency of "running up the score" lest there any doubt that Trump gets thumped, to insure against any questions of electoral impropriety.

What next? Predicting the result of this election with an octopus?

upsideguy said:

...Trump's "its rigged [so why bother?]" mantra isn't exactly selling the importance of voting.

Of course, Trump hinting that he is about to be robbed is now motivating the Clinton campaign to pivot toward selling the urgency of "running up the score" lest there any doubt that Trump gets thumped, to insure against any questions of electoral impropriety.

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Polls say 72 percent of America don't trust the election results are on the up and up.

I certainly don't.

Erod said:

Polls say 72 percent of America don't trust the election results are on the up and up.

I certainly don't.

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Source?

Erod said:

Polls say 72 percent of America don't trust the election results are on the up and up.

I certainly don't.

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1) let's see that poll (I seriously doubt the number is above 30%);
2) You have spent too much time on right wing political porn sites, as you have no rational basis for that belief; and
3) Do you realize how damaging that is to our country to perpetuate that myth? Its a bigger threat than ISIL as it undermines an essential truth of our system.

I suggest you better educate yourself on that subject (and stay the hell away from Brietbart)

upsideguy said:

1) let's see that poll (I seriously doubt the number is above 30%);
2) You have spent too much time on right wing political porn sites, as you have no rational basis for that belief; and
3) Do you realize how damaging that is to our country to perpetuate that myth? Its a bigger threat than ISIL as it undermines an essential truth of our system.

I suggest you better educate yourself on that subject (and stay the hell away from Brietbart)

Click to expand...

Hook, line, and sinker. Did you get a sticker when you drank the Kool-Aid?

Erod said:

Hook, line, and sinker. Did you get a sticker when you drank the Kool-Aid?

Click to expand...

So, where is the proof of your ridiculous assertion? We are all holding our breath.

If you can not defend your statement about 72% of the people think the election is rigged with third party evidence, we all get to conclude that its not true. So, absent real evidence of your impressions, we all get to conclude you are living in la-la land.

Let me help you, as I have direct contact with reality...

'Rigged' Poll: How Many Voters Now Think the Election Could Be 'Stolen' from Trump? | Daily Wire

Yes, its ridiculously high, but that is because, as they point out Trump's rants are beginning to have the effect of undermining the American confidence in the electoral system...

"...Politico blames the increased skepticism about the election on Trump's "rigged" mantra, which he has been hammering more than ever in recent weeks: The public sentiment is beginning to reflect Trump's campaign message. Over the last week, the GOP nominee has intensified his criticism of the U.S. electoral system, much to the chagrin of elected Republicans, who think it threatens the peaceful transfer of power....."

Trump has moved past the "joke" stage. He his becoming truly dangerous. His minions of the uneducated who take him at his word (despite the fact that Politifact suggests he may be the biggest liar ever to run for President)

Are Clinton and Trump the Biggest Liars Ever to Run for President? - POLITICO Magazine

Donald Trump's file | PolitiFact

believe everything he says. They are too lazy to independently verify things, but would rather swallow his self-serving rants "hook, line and sinker".... characteristics of a cult.

Much like a cult member, you are completely out of phase with the thinking of most people. You throw numbers around, but when confronted, you cannot produce third party evidence.

So, enjoy a 2nd glass of your thirst quenching elixir.

It looks like this professor was right about this election after all.

volsrock said:

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes.

Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections.

This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.

Professor with Remarkable Track Record Predicts a Trump Election Win | Fox News Insider

Click to expand...

I have to concede. He was right.