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New NBC Poll: Hillary Falls Further

Anagram said:
The convention bounces are definitely real. If Trump is still behind or tied during his, that's not a good sign for him. But there's still plenty of time left, especially with the debates to come and the conventions so early this year.
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The debates are were it is going to be.
You saw what happened to the others when they tried to go after trump.
They got their lights knocked out. Why?

He is use to it. He deals with that stuff all the time.

Clinton like all politicians have image issues. They have to be seen a certain way.
Trump doesn't care you attack him he doubles back and hits you harder.
 
bubbabgone said:
The media certainly DOES intend to do their damnedest to get Hillary in and they will be the ones moderating the debates ... and we've seen how anxious they were to introduce any of her scandals ... which is to say, not at all.
And she's in a much better position to present what will appear to be factual information, particularly on foreign policy, and he's not knowledgeable enough to directly challenge her on it - officeholders would be.
What he has is her "extreme carelessness" and he'll be bringing that up early and often.

But that brings me to something else you just mentioned ... what could Trump possibly come up with during the debates. One thing I can see him doing that, say, Jeb would never do is to confront the mods ... get in their faces.
When they ask him about Trump U, and we know they will because they should, then Trump can get a lot of attention by asking them why they haven't been hammering Hillary on her many scandals, because they will not. The debate audience will erupt , the home audience will erupt because they hate the media as much as they hate the candidates, and the media may feel obliged (and defensive) enough to cover it.

Which brings me to another point.
I wish to hell there was no debate audience at those things. Way too much playing to the audience and waste of time.
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I agree with your point about Trump going after the media for not pressuring Clinton on her cornucopia of scandals/criminality/incompetence, but don't forget Romney did the same thing back in 2012 and the Republicans and their supporters all went after Candy Crowley, as an example, for jumping into the debate to falsely protect President Obama on the "terrorist" narrative and how did that work out? Making the media the issue will take focus off Clinton - taking focus off Clinton will win the election for Clinton. Only hope Trump has is if he can stay on message and if that message truly does damage Clinton day after day after day. There's nothing in Trump's history or persona that leads me to believe he is remotely disciplined enough to carry that message.

Say hello to President Hillary Clinton - and Americans should be ashamed of that result.
 
SocialD said:
It was very brief. RNC convention was 9/1-9/4 on 2008. McCain got a bump for 2 days following that. He only hit double digits in one poll at +10. It was very short lived through.
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Yes, it was short lived because of the Katie Couric narrative about Sarah Palin not having any definitive answers to what she reads and thus began the "Palin is a bimbo" story line. But it existed.
 
Higgins86 said:
The Palin affect right? Then the bottom well out. Can you see Trump losing momentum like that?
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I don't see Trump getting that momentum to begin with. Pence is no Palin - Pence isn't even Biden - Pence is perhaps the least dynamic and excitement generating VP choice possible.

I see a slaughter in November.
 
Taylor said:
Double digit lead? According to RCP, Romney never even managed a single digit lead the entire election cycle. Can't get the McCain figures to load on my phone.
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There were several polls where Romney had a wide lead.

Don't forget that Hurricane Sandy and President Obama's visit to New Jersey with Governor Christie sealed the election for Obama and after those August days Romney had no chance.
 
CanadaJohn said:
If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.
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Beware the polls, here in the UK our last two big voting issues, the Election and Brexit we had the polls of a hung parliament, with the Tories a fair bit away from majority, and a remain win, we got a Tory majority and a leave win.

I fail to see how all those people you're mentioning would do any better vs Clinton considering they couldn't even handle Trump at any level and were quickly dispatched.
 
CanadaJohn said:
I agree with your point about Trump going after the media for not pressuring Clinton on her cornucopia of scandals/criminality/incompetence, but don't forget Romney did the same thing back in 2012 and the Republicans and their supporters all went after Candy Crowley, as an example, for jumping into the debate to falsely protect President Obama on the "terrorist" narrative and how did that work out? Making the media the issue will take focus off Clinton - taking focus off Clinton will win the election for Clinton. Only hope Trump has is if he can stay on message and if that message truly does damage Clinton day after day after day. There's nothing in Trump's history or persona that leads me to believe he is remotely disciplined enough to carry that message.

Say hello to President Hillary Clinton - and Americans should be ashamed of that result.
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They did go after Crowley but not during the debate right after she did what she did.
That would have been effective and Romney didn't do it.
That's what I was talking about.
With Clinton and the media it would reinforce a Trump theme that the media fix is in while still keeping the focus on Hillary.
 
CanadaJohn said:
There were several polls where Romney had a wide lead.
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If true, these were outliers. RCP by no means uses every poll, but it does include most major polls. For the entire month following the convention, Romney was ahead in just one of the 30+ polls recorded, and that was only a +2.

Most (but certainly not all) media outlets were reporting that Romney received no bounce from the convention.
 
CanadaJohn said:
If I recall correctly, McCain led Obama by a small margin and increased that to a double digit lead exiting the Republican convention in 2008 and Romney had similar numbers coming out of the Republican convention in 2012. If this is all Trump has at this point in time, after his VP nominee is announced, and while the convention is hogging the limelight, it's over. Trump is about to get slaughtered in the electoral college count.

Virtually any other Republican candidate, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would be leading the polls at this point by a significant margin. With all the negative media attention Clinton has received lately, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, would all be leading Clinton by a significant margin at this point in time. They may not have won it in November, but they'd be in it. Failing social media pics of Hillary in a burka wielding the severed head of Monica Lewinski, this election is over and another prime opportunity for Republicans to gain the White House has been pissed away.
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The candidate who has their party convention first always gets a bump in the polls in the days prior to and during their party convention. So, this doesn't come as a surprise to me. What has been interesting to follow as far as polling data goes is the fact that Donald Trump hasn't surpassed Hillary by the numbers yet nor has his poll numbers ever gone over 48% from his own party. (Avg. has been around 43%) Even Real Clear Politics still has him at 41% to Hillary's 43% - a virtual tie.

If Trump's poll numbers don't rise above 50% during the RNC, I'd say he's pretty much done...he just doesn't know it yet.
 
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I honestly didn't think Trump had a shot.

Thankfully for him, Hillary is a beast of a human being.

These two give each other hope no matter what.
 
Objective Voice said:
If Trump's poll numbers don't rise above 50% during the RNC, I'd say he's pretty much done...he just doesn't know it yet.
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The last president to do that was Reagan? Maybe???

That just doesn't happen this far out. Too many undecideds.
 
The poll is just a snippet of the minute.
It's a long way till the election and there will be many ups and downs.

Lets see what happens with the debates.
 
Common Sense 1 said:
The poll is just a snippet of the minute.
It's a long way till the election and there will be many ups and downs.

Lets see what happens with the debates.
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I think this will be where Trump slides the most. He doesn't seem to have the ability to put together a clear, coherent thought without repeating himself or going off point. He does a good job at deflecting, though. Unfortunately, after an RNC where most of the talk was so much anti-Hillary, people (most Independent voters) will want to know what his policies are in order to judge what a Trump presidency would look like. And if he comes across as being too incoherent, people (voters) will tune him out.

The debates could be where Trump falters the most, but we'll see.

(Before anyone says it, yes, he did well in the GOP primary debates but that was mostly due to him insulting everyone else and deflecting away from the issues. When it's the general election debates, people won't stand for half-baked, unanswered questions. They want to know where these candidates stand on the issues not how much worse the other person may be or how we'll get "more of the same" from his/her opponent.)
 
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