The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime
Abstract
Childhood lead exposure can lead to psychological traits that are strongly associated with
aggressive and criminal behavior. In the late 1970s in the United States, lead was removed from
gasoline under the Clean Air Act. I use the state-specific reductions in lead exposure that resulted
from this removal to identify the effect of childhood lead exposure on crime rates. The elasticity
of violent crime with respect to childhood lead exposure is estimated to be 0.8, and this result
is robust to numerous sensitivity tests. Mixed evidence supports an effect of lead exposure on
murder rates, and little evidence indicates an effect of lead on property crime. Overall, I find that
the reduction in childhood lead exposure in the late 1970s and early 1980s was responsible for
significant declines in violent crime in the 1990s and may cause further declines in the future.
Moreover, the social value of the reductions in violent crime far exceeds the cost of the removal of
lead from gasoline.