Clinton Wins Nevada Caucus

It looks as though Clinton has managed to beat off the recent fears that there could be a surprise upset in Nevada, with 95% of the precincts reporting it looks as though she will record a close but still clear victory in the state. How do you think this affects the race going forward? I'm not much of an electoral prognosticator but it seems to me that by denying Sanders another whiff of momentum she has a good couple of weeks ahead of her what with South Carolina and so many of those southern Super Tuesday states where she's polling well coming up.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this.

Hillary Clinton Nevada victory: For Clinton staffers, cheers of relief - POLITICO

Sherman123 said:

It looks as though Clinton has managed to beat off the recent fears that there could be a surprise upset in Nevada, with 95% of the precincts reporting it looks as though she will record a close but still clear victory in the state. How do you think this affects the race going forward? I'm not much of an electoral prognosticator but it seems to me that by denying Sanders another whiff of momentum she has a good couple of weeks ahead of her what with South Carolina and so many of those southern Super Tuesday states where she's polling well coming up.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this.

Hillary Clinton Nevada victory: For Clinton staffers, cheers of relief - POLITICO

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Clinton needed this, but Bernie's poll numbers across the other primary states are still competitive enough to suggest this will be no cake walk. Clinton will get the nomination, but not without giving her an Andrew Johnson-like warning. How she will placate the radicals in the Party now, I have no idea. She will probably have less pull than Obama did in 2011, but now they will expect nothing short of a miracle. We may be seeing the Tea Party-ization of the Democratic Party, and only America will lose with two radical revolutionary Parties duking it out with no sense of compromise.

Sherman123 said:

It looks as though Clinton has managed to beat off the recent fears that there could be a surprise upset in Nevada, with 95% of the precincts reporting it looks as though she will record a close but still clear victory in the state. How do you think this affects the race going forward? I'm not much of an electoral prognosticator but it seems to me that by denying Sanders another whiff of momentum she has a good couple of weeks ahead of her what with South Carolina and so many of those southern Super Tuesday states where she's polling well coming up.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this.

Hillary Clinton Nevada victory: For Clinton staffers, cheers of relief - POLITICO

Click to expand...

She is still in jeopardy. So far it looks like a replay of 2008 with Obama. There are rumors she is running out of money. The superpacs aren't but she has told them to save their money for the election. She might have to change that strategy.

Of course she wins. Next state on the line please!

Bernie beat her in fund raising in January. Whether its going to be Clinton or Sanders, its going to be a long fight.

Sherman123 said:

It looks as though Clinton has managed to beat off the recent fears that there could be a surprise upset in Nevada, with 95% of the precincts reporting it looks as though she will record a close but still clear victory in the state. How do you think this affects the race going forward? I'm not much of an electoral prognosticator but it seems to me that by denying Sanders another whiff of momentum she has a good couple of weeks ahead of her what with South Carolina and so many of those southern Super Tuesday states where she's polling well coming up.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this.

Hillary Clinton Nevada victory: For Clinton staffers, cheers of relief - POLITICO

Click to expand...

Here's Nate Silver's comments on it which I'm hoping come true:

The worry to Hillary backers should be how small her margin of victory was.

Nevada is a gambling state, and an industrial state. It's not really a freeloaders state. The freeloaders go to California. It's a place where people come to get jobs in casinos, transportation, warehousing, or manufacturing. It also has a large military presence, and has a large LDS population.

It's usually pretty easy to get a crappy job in Nevada, but due to high turnover, you can move up easily if you keep your nose clean. However, most of the invisible casino labor force is minimum wage working poor, so promises of "Bernie stuff" resonate. But I doubt many of them were at the caucus. Do you want your boss at the Bellagio to know you caucused for Bernie? Naa...

Bernies message may resonate with the lower income residents in Nevada, and Hillary's notoriety resonates with the middle class in Las Vegas, but I see the close margin as more of a rejection of Hillary.

However, the only people to make their preferences known were caucus participants who are typically interested in politics. Thus, Hillary failed. She needed a 25%+ lead on Bernie to be considered safe.

I think she failed to create the momentum she sought to achieve.

poweRob said:

Here's Nate Silver's comments on it which I'm hoping come true:

While Clinton has won the first two caucuses in the Democratic race — while losing New Hampshire, the only primary — it’s possible that Bernie Sanders will win every state caucus from here on out.

Here’s why I say that. The remaining Democratic states to hold caucuses are: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington and Wyoming. Other than Hawaii — where I’m not going to pretend we have any earthly idea what’s going to happen — those are a bunch of really white states that otherwise look favorable for Sanders and which he could win even if he slightly trails Clinton nationally.

Clinton is probably favored in the territorial caucuses in American Samoa, Guam and the Virgin Islands, however, as territorial caucuses tend to heavily favor “establishment” candidates.​

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But does that really matter? Her strategy, and the bulk of the race, has always revolved around the primaries not the caucuses. If she has a blowout Super Tuesday, what's Sanders next chance to really equalize things? Or is this just about slugging it out as long as possible on principle?

Sherman123 said:

But does that really matter? Her strategy, and the bulk of the race, has always revolved around the primaries not the caucuses. If she has a blowout Super Tuesday, what's Sanders next chance to really equalize things? Or is this just about slugging it out as long as possible on principle?

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She's going to have a good Super Tuesday. But after that... we'll see. After Super Tuesday the old South will be pretty much spent and that seems to be her stronghold. It depends on people's interpretation of what her good Super Tuesday means. If they deem it to be her on an unstoppable roll then it hurts Bernie. If they see it as, "well she just took her best shot and that's it?" Dunno what's going to happen. I get the feeling the media is going to play it as how Clinton is unstoppable though.

*edit... as already evidenced here:

Fiddytree said:

Clinton needed this, but Bernie's poll numbers across the other primary states are still competitive enough to suggest this will be no cake walk. Clinton will get the nomination, but not without giving her an Andrew Johnson-like warning. How she will placate the radicals in the Party now, I have no idea. She will probably have less pull than Obama did in 2011, but now they will expect nothing short of a miracle. We may be seeing the Tea Party-ization of the Democratic Party, and only America will lose with two radical revolutionary Parties duking it out with no sense of compromise.

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The parties are following the populace, which is also bifurcating to become more ideologically consistent (in both directions).

Myself, I want Hillary to win after a long, bruising, ugly, primary in which she alternates between accusing Bernie Sanders of being a child-molesting Wall Street Banker, and having her supporters engage in obvious election fraud that - in that special Clinton way - somehow nonetheless doesn't result in convictions for Herself. Hopefully Bernie, at some point, actually begins to fight back.

cpwill said:

The parties are following the populace, which is also bifurcating to become more ideologically consistent (in both directions).

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You and I both agree. We disagree on whether or not that should exist.

Myself, I want Hillary to win after a long, bruising, ugly, primary in which she alternates between accusing Bernie Sanders of being a child-molesting Wall Street Banker, and having her supporters engage in obvious election fraud that - in that special Clinton way - somehow nonetheless doesn't result in convictions for Herself. Hopefully Bernie, at some point, actually begins to fight back.

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I personally want her to come out on top in that bout, but in so doing, it will hasten the leftist revolt in the party.

Fiddytree said:

You and I both agree. We disagree on whether or not that should exist.

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I think it's bad for the country. I just also think it's a reality, and driven mostly by modern information balkanization.

I personally want her to come out on top in that bout, but in so doing, it will hasten the leftist revolt in the party.

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True. If that happens, it will replicate the Republican experience in 2012. Meaning... look out in 2020.