Donald Trump just surged to a new high in a poll

And he is more than doubling his nearest competitor:




Donald Trump just surged to a new high in a poll ? and he's doubling his closest competitor - Yahoo Finance


Real-estate mogul Donald Trump has hit a new high-water mark in the CNN/ORC survey, garnering 41% support among national Republican-primary voters in a poll released Tuesday.

That was more than double the support of Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Trump's closest rival in the GOP presidential primary. Cruz had the support of 19% of GOP voters in the survey. No other candidate hit double digits.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll published Tuesday found similar results, with Trump leading Cruz nationally 37% to 21%. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida came in third at 11%, but no other Republican candidate ticked up to double digits.

That poll also found, significantly, that 64% of Republican voters viewed Trump as the most likely Republican nominee. And a majority — 56% — said Trump was the most electable potential nominee.


For months we've heard the naysayers on this site say "its too early", "polls this early mean nothing", "Trump is going to implode". So what are they going to be saying after the Iowa caucuses? Is it still going to be "too early", "The caucuses don't mean anything", "Trump is going to implode"?

No one thought that an out-and-out bully, egotistical racist asshole who makes fun of people with physical handicaps would get nominated by Republicans.

But the rank and file proved political junkies -- both conservatives and progressives -- very wrong.

disneydude said:

For months we've heard the naysayers on this site say "its too early", "polls this early mean nothing", "Trump is going to implode". So what are they going to be saying after the Iowa caucuses? Is it still going to be "too early", "The caucuses don't mean anything", "Trump is going to implode"?

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It is truly amazing to watch Trump continue with his dominant showing and build upon that showing despite all of his gaffes and shortcomings. The man insults war heroes because they were PoWs? Goes higher in the polls. Implying that a female reporter asked him tough question because she was on her period? Kudos to Trump! Make fun of a crippled reporter? Haha! Explicitly saying that his supporters are so rabid that they would support him after he publicly murdered someone for sport? Attaboy Trump!

He is really breaking just about every political rule in the proverbial book. And if he does manage to obtain the nomination, I will be really curious to discover whether the biggest political rule - namely whether your favorability ratings amongst independents and the other side is a strong predictor of your likely success in the general election - stays in place this election cycle.

This article (Source) that I saw this morning noted that the two strongest independent predictors of supporting Trump vs. any of his opponents is whether the supporter wanted a candidate that was outside the political establishment and whether that candidate holds strong anti-immigration views. Those issues; however, put the Trump supporters at dramatically different positions when compared to the rest of the public.

No one thought, Hillary especially, that a community organizer, although well spoken, and with zero executive experience could win the Dem nomination back in 08, but it did happen. In the reverse, no one thinks a well established and proven CEO and business man, not well spoken, can win the GOP nomination in 2016. Interesting contrast to be sure..


Tim-

He is picking up all the dissatisfied Hillary voters. /sarcasm off

MrT said:

It is truly amazing to watch Trump continue with his dominant showing and build upon that showing despite all of his gaffes and shortcomings. The man insults war heroes because they were PoWs? Goes higher in the polls. Implying that a female reporter asked him tough question because she was on her period? Kudos to Trump! Make fun of a crippled reporter? Haha! Explicitly saying that his supporters are so rabid that they would support him after he publicly murdered someone for sport? Attaboy Trump!

He is really breaking just about every political rule in the proverbial book. And if he does manage to obtain the nomination, I will be really curious to discover whether the biggest political rule - namely whether your favorability ratings amongst independents and the other side is a strong predictor of your likely success in the general election - stays in place this election cycle.

This article (Source) that I saw this morning noted that the two strongest independent predictors of supporting Trump vs. any of his opponents is whether the supporter wanted a candidate that was outside the political establishment and whether that candidate holds strong anti-immigration views. Those issues; however, put the Trump supporters at dramatically different positions when compared to the rest of the public.

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Garden variety sour grapes mixed in with so little truth, then you get to the bolded and go laughably wrong.

NonoBadDog said:

He is picking up all the dissatisfied Hillary voters.

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Why are dissatisfied Hillary "voters" now voting in Republican primaries or telling pollsters that they lean Republican?

brothern said:

No one thought that an out-and-out bully, egotistical racist asshole who makes fun of people with physical handicaps would get nominated by Republicans.

But the rank and file proved political junkies -- both conservatives and progressives -- very wrong.

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Everyone believes that the Democrats would nominate a arrogant, corrupt, egocentric, loud-mouth, braying bitch, who exposes national secrets.

I actually think Cruz would be an easier candidate to defeat in the GE...however, I am happy for Trump to get the GOP nomination and continue to cause damage to the Republican brand.

American said:

Everyone believes that the Democrats would nominate a arrogant, corrupt, egocentric, loud-mouth, braying bitch, who exposes national secrets.

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Nope....Sarah Palin plays for your team!

MrT said:

Why are dissatisfied Hillary "voters" now voting in Republican primaries or telling pollsters that they lean Republican?

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I was being sarcastic. That is why I put it in italics.

clownboy said:

Garden variety sour grapes mixed in with so little truth, then you get to the bolded and go laughably wrong.

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Oh really? Let's go to the data!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps...i-establishment-presidential-candidates/1822/

In regards to the establishment question (this survey comes from Sept 14, so feel free to find me a more recent survey), approximately 56% of Republicans want someone from outside the political establishment and only 40% want someone with experience on how the political system works. This contrasts with Independents (40% and 54% respectively) and Democrats (25% and 72% respectively).

In U.S., 65% Favor Path to Citizenship for Illegal Immigrants

In terms of immigration, nearly 65% support a path to citizenship.

What Americans want to do about illegal immigration | Pew Research Center

This poll comes from August 24, 2015. Again, feel free to find me a newer poll if you want.

80% of Democrats and 76% of Independents believe that illegal aliens should be allowed to stay if they meet certain requirements. And changing the birthright citizenship amendment is opposed by 73% of Hispanics, 73% of young people, and 66% of Democrats.

NonoBadDog said:

I was being sarcastic. That is why I put it in italics.

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Oh...I see, my bad. I would suggest a "/s" at the end of the post.

disneydude said:

Nope....Sarah Palin plays for your team!

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So obviously I'm talking about Hillary Clinton, who does play for your team.

American said:

Everyone believes that the Democrats would nominate a arrogant, corrupt, egocentric, loud-mouth, braying bitch, who exposes national secrets.

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I thought Ted Cruz was running for the Republican Candidacy?

MrT said:

Oh...I see, my bad. I would suggest a "/s" at the end of the post.

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Yeah, sorry, I edited it to reflect the sarcasm. Not your bad, my bad.

MrT said:

Oh really? Let's go to the data!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps...i-establishment-presidential-candidates/1822/

In regards to the establishment question (this survey comes from Sept 14, so feel free to find me a more recent survey), approximately 56% of Republicans want someone from outside the political establishment and only 40% want someone with experience on how the political system works. This contrasts with Independents (40% and 54% respectively) and Democrats (25% and 72% respectively).

In U.S., 65% Favor Path to Citizenship for Illegal Immigrants

In terms of immigration, nearly 65% support a path to citizenship.

What Americans want to do about illegal immigration | Pew Research Center

This poll comes from August 24, 2015. Again, feel free to find me a newer poll if you want.

80% of Democrats and 76% of Independents believe that illegal aliens should be allowed to stay if they meet certain requirements. And changing the birthright citizenship amendment is opposed by 73% of Hispanics, 73% of young people, and 66% of Democrats.

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Ands the survey says... That's right Alex, it's all about how and who you ask the question.

American said:

So obviously I'm talking about Hillary Clinton, who does play for your team.

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Why would you pose a description of Sarah Palin then? Doh!

clownboy said:

Ands the survey says... That's right Alex, it's all about how and who you ask the question.

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And the survey says...That's right Alex, clownboy made a baseless allegation of falsity and then dismissed evidence from respected pollsters as irrelevant or improperly conducted.

disneydude said:

Why would you pose a description of Sarah Palin then? Doh!

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Wow, so in your mind they're the same? Cool, learn something new every day, thanks.

MrT said:

And the survey says...That's right Alex, clownboy made a baseless allegation of falsity and then dismissed evidence from respected pollsters as irrelevant or improperly conducted.

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Very good, I thought you'd miss that. You managed to only make a single error - when you labeled reality as a false and baseless allegation. A new record for you.

disneydude said:

And he is more than doubling his nearest competitor:




Donald Trump just surged to a new high in a poll ? and he's doubling his closest competitor - Yahoo Finance


Real-estate mogul Donald Trump has hit a new high-water mark in the CNN/ORC survey, garnering 41% support among national Republican-primary voters in a poll released Tuesday.

That was more than double the support of Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Trump's closest rival in the GOP presidential primary. Cruz had the support of 19% of GOP voters in the survey. No other candidate hit double digits.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll published Tuesday found similar results, with Trump leading Cruz nationally 37% to 21%. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida came in third at 11%, but no other Republican candidate ticked up to double digits.

That poll also found, significantly, that 64% of Republican voters viewed Trump as the most likely Republican nominee. And a majority — 56% — said Trump was the most electable potential nominee.


For months we've heard the naysayers on this site say "its too early", "polls this early mean nothing", "Trump is going to implode". So what are they going to be saying after the Iowa caucuses? Is it still going to be "too early", "The caucuses don't mean anything", "Trump is going to implode"?

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I understand why rabid Democrats and liberals would be breathless with each new national poll showing Trump in the lead - anything to take the narrative off Hillary tanking again - but anyone who knows anything about politics knows that national polls are useless when it comes to the primary season of either party. Everything that's anything is local at this point.

While Trump is doing well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he's not doing anywhere near as well as these national polls project. Until Trump actually wins something, the national polls mean nothing. If Cruz wins Iowa, the narrative will be that Trump is in trouble. If Trump doesn't win convincingly in New Hampshire, the Trump in trouble narrative will expand, and so it goes. The political trash heaps are littered with national poll leaders from both parties - remember Howard Dean? - remember Rudy Guilianni? - who had commanding leads before even a single vote was cast.

What Disney Dudes who lean far to the left should really be concerned about are the local polls in Iowa and New Hampshire where Bernie Sanders is wiping the floor with the pantsuited crone. Bernie's 60% in New Hampshire is 30% plus clear of the heiress to the thrown and now that Obama has come out praising Clinton, she's received the ultimate kiss of death. When the pantsuit princess loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, those national polls where she leads will be a distant memory and Bernie's momentum will start to build because everyone knows that nobody wants Hillary as President and if she can be toppled Democrats won't be embarrassed to vote in November.

Sanders/Warren 2016 The Dream Team for today's depressed and desperate donkeys.

Hicup said:

No one thought, Hillary especially, that a community organizer, although well spoken, and with zero executive experience could win the Dem nomination back in 08, but it did happen. In the reverse, no one thinks a well established and proven CEO and business man, not well spoken, can win the GOP nomination in 2016. Interesting contrast to be sure..


Tim-

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Practically speaking executive experience has never been required to get elected President. There have been plenty of Congressmen with no executive experience who've been elected. And by my count there have only been 21 Presidents who were governors at one point in their careers.

clownboy said:

Very good, I thought you'd miss that. You managed to only make a single error - when you labeled reality as a false and baseless allegation. A new record for you.

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How about you stop making the allegations of falsity and back it up with actual data.

MrT said:

How about you stop making the allegations of falsity and back it up with actual data.

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Actual data, you mean like a wall that was built despite liberal objections that there wasn't any support for it? Like maybe how, with the public in the bag for amnesty as you argue, still the amnesty crew can't get any traction in the house - the most populous based and responsive part of our government? Actual data like reality?

If your polls were anything other than selective questioning the amnesty immigration package you've always wanted would be signed, sealed and delivered.