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Thread: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Reportedly, this is the Greek proposal.

    ANA-MPA: The Greek government's full proposal to the Eurogroup

    If so, it's a dramatic shift to the creditors' earlier positions. Had the Greek government had the foresight to accept what was available to them back in June, the prolonged bank holiday, capital controls, and resulting macroeconomic damage could have been avoided.
    You were arguing just a day or two ago that Tsipras' strategy all along was to get Greece to leave the eurozone. Clearly, it wasn't.

    Now we'll see whether Merkel et al had the same goal, because to reject, substantially modify or deny any debt relief on the basis of this plan would demonstrate that they have no intention of keeping Greece within the Euro.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    You were arguing just a day or two ago that Tsipras' strategy all along was to get Greece to leave the eurozone. Clearly, it wasn't.

    Now we'll see whether Merkel et al had the same goal, because to reject, substantially modify or deny any debt relief on the basis of this plan would demonstrate that they have no intention of keeping Greece within the Euro.
    I was raising the question. I'm still not sure that wasn't his goal or Syriza's goal. I don't know.

    Confronted by the reality that the EU was truly serious about letting Greece leave and realizing that Greece had no viable alternatives outside of the Eurozone might well have changed the government's calculus. Russia never was a serious option given its own tough situation. Hysteria from across the Atlantic that a Grexit would have led to its departure from NATO or presented a serious geopolitical change in the balance of power was baseless given Greece's national interests. Greece had no viable options. It had no meaningful leverage and it could never have expected the EU/ECB/IMF to capitulate to its demands. Greece's government either miscalculated badly, didn't take a sober look at what little leverage it actually had, or wanted to "explore" a possible exit. Undoubtedly, there were politicians who fell into all three categories on an individual basis.

    Had the government offered what is on the table now, all of what happened from the time the talks fell apart i.e., capital controls, resulting macroeconomic damage, additional hardship on Greece's people, etc., could have been avoided. It should have been avoided. That the government finally made a sensible decision after gambling recklessly and consuming a large amount of time in the process doesn't win it much credit. A government that has the foresight to make tough choices before incurring high costs after trying to evade those decisions deserves credit.

    It's good that Greece finally made a sound choice. But it did so only after incurring steep and wholly avoidable costs and after discovering that the EU was serious about allowing it to leave rather than capitulating.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 07-10-15 at 06:54 AM.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I was raising the question. I'm still not sure that wasn't his goal or Syriza's goal. I don't know.

    Confronted by the reality that the EU was truly serious about letting Greece leave and realizing that Greece had no viable alternatives outside of the Eurozone might well have changed the government's calculus. Russia never was a serious option given its own tough situation. Hysteria from across the Atlantic that a Grexit would have led to its departure from NATO or presented a serious geopolitical change in the balance of power was baseless given Greece's national interests. Greece had no viable options. It had no meaningful leverage and it could never have expected the EU/ECB/IMF to capitulate to its demands. Greece's government either miscalculated badly, didn't take a sober look at what little leverage it actually had, or wanted to "explore" a possible exit. Undoubtedly, there were politicians who fell into all three categories on an individual basis.

    Had the government offered what is on the table now, all of what happened from the time the talks fell apart i.e., capital controls, resulting macroeconomic damage, additional hardship on Greece's people, etc., could have been avoided. It should have been avoided. That the government finally made a sensible decision after gambling recklessly and consuming a large amount of time in the process doesn't win it much credit. A government that has the foresight to make tough choices before incurring high costs after trying to evade those decisions deserves credit.

    It's good that Greece finally made a sound choice. But it did so only after incurring steep and wholly avoidable costs and after discovering that the EU was serious about allowing it to leave rather than capitulating.
    Well, that 'sound choice' runs counter to the mandate he received on Sunday.

    And that 'sound choice' appears not to have yet found favour with the Germans:
    Finance ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said Germany would not accept any reduction of debt that caused it more losses.
    "The outcome of the Eurogroup meeting on Saturday is completely open," he said.
    I foresee troops on the streets of Athens by Monday, and I don't think that that is being overly apocalyptic.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    Well, that 'sound choice' runs counter to the mandate he received on Sunday.
    Of course it does. He should never have punted in the first place. Had he accepted similar terms early on, he wouldn't have created a situation of accepting terms that run counter to a referendum's mandate, as there would have been no referendum.

    And that 'sound choice' appears not to have yet found favour with the Germans:
    The Greek government destroyed a lot of trust and good faith. It vilified some German officials e.g., its Finance Minister. It inflicted upon itself macroeconomic damage that makes the task of addressing its structural issues even more difficult. If the IMF, ECB, and EU's assessments conclude that the package is viable, Germany will come along.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Of course it does. He should never have punted in the first place. Had he accepted similar terms early on, he wouldn't have created a situation of accepting terms that run counter to a referendum's mandate, as there would have been no referendum.
    I see. So it would have been better not to get a democratic decision on what the Greek people want. Better not to know, so that going against the democratic will is easier.

    The Greek government destroyed a lot of trust and good faith. It vilified some German officials e.g., its Finance Minister. It inflicted upon itself macroeconomic damage that makes the task of addressing its structural issues even more difficult. If the IMF, ECB, and EU's assessments conclude that the package is viable, Germany will come along.
    We'll see. It has to pass the Bundestag, which will not necessarily fall into line just because Merkel tells them to.

    The 'macroeconomic damage' that Syriza may or may not have caused is as nothing to the macroeconomic destruction wreaked by austerity: mass unemployment, the collapse of GDP and the 70% increase of debt to GDP have nothing whatsoever to do with Syriza's policies or tactics.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Ground hog day, anyone?

    Not being able to remember title of book or name of author, it took me a bit of brain jogging. So this is from 2012, the book itself having come on to the market in 1975.

    Interview with Greek Writer Nikos Dimou on Crisis - SPIEGEL ONLINE

    Make of it what you will.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    We'll see. It has to pass the Bundestag, which will not necessarily fall into line just because Merkel tells them to.
    Here there's an uncanny Greek-German similarity.

    Where pissing off large parts of her own party, Merkel could pull it off against that faction. The two opposition parties (insignificant in their size but WTH) are in favor and the Social Dems she's in government coalition with (the junior partner so to speak) will lean more towards acceptance.

    As with Tsipras who'll get the "establishment" of the past in support but not all of his own coalition government.

    The 'macroeconomic damage' that Syriza may or may not have caused is as nothing to the macroeconomic destruction wreaked by austerity: mass unemployment, the collapse of GDP and the 70% increase of debt to GDP have nothing whatsoever to do with Syriza's policies or tactics.
    We actually don't know the measure of GDP collapse that has been caused by the delay, nor to what extent the debt/GDP ratio is by now.

    Everyone looks at the debt to GDP (rise in %-age).

    One need see that the debt percentage of GDP (as known before this all came to the latest head) was largely due to the GDP itself plummeting. Where GDP fell in a constant recession of 5 years, one need also see that it fell most from 2008 to 2010, i.e. before Europe waded in.

    The debt peaked in 2011. In simple Euros. It hasn't been as high since, the 2012 programme and haircut having reduced it.
    It's rise in the period 2012-2014 was, by comparison, a piece of cake compared to before and in Euros it's still not as high as 2011 (leaving aside that the current damage still requires measuring).

    GDP growth was a yearly minus 2008 to 2011 (peaking then at -8.9). Since then it's still minus but consistently less so (down to -3.9 in 2013 and the actual plus value of 0.8 in 2014).

    It's papers in April 2010 had junk bond status, had it changed to the drachma by even then, that currency would have been non-convertible as in something to use for loo paper.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    Well, that 'sound choice' runs counter to the mandate he received on Sunday.
    The referendum was political posturing with a deliberately confusing question. It actually proposed a plan that wasn't even on the table any longer. It was a farce (as proven by the fact that its result didn't influence at all the final proposal, which went in the very opposite direction, showing that the PM didn't take the Greek people's response seriously after all, because he knew very well that the whole thing was bogus).

    By the way, in these matters, I wouldn't even put it to the people in a referendum format. A sound decision in these matters should be done by a responsible government, entrusted democratically by the people to analyze things and pick the best solution, as advised by competent economists and such. You can't expect every citizen to have the necessary economic acumen to make these decisions. It is up to the people to elect competent representatives, then entrust them with the tough decisions. Putting it to the people in a confusing referendum was nothing other than a lame political ploy by this incompetent and populist prime minister.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    Putting it to the people in a confusing referendum was nothing other than a lame political ploy by this incompetent and populist prime minister.
    Indeed.

    Had the vote been on "agree to keep the Euro" the landslide would have gone to "NAI". As it were Tsipras promised to keep the Euro and that beyond that wishes (of the referendum) would become horses.

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