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Thread: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    Interesting - the news has been billing this as an (eventual) 'leaving the EU'.
    Well, that has been the disinformation that the Troika side has been pushing at the Greeks in the lead up to the referendum. What you have to realise is that Greece, or any other member state, cannot be ejected from the EU without the fundamental treaties being changed. A member may leave, but they may not be ejected. Syriza has no intention of leaving, they've said this time and again.
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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    Interesting - the news has been billing this as an (eventual) 'leaving the EU'.
    I don't believe that will happen. It's the same situation as last week when the duly government essentially refused what was offered. Don't see how the referendum on a now void bailout package has changed the actual situation.

    It was diverting I guess.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    Interesting - the news has been billing this as an (eventual) 'leaving the EU'.
    Well the news is usually uncannily predictive so you might have a point.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    21:00 hrs CET. 50% of the votes counted: No - 61%, Yes - 39%.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    With 60% of the vote in, "No" continues to lead 61.3%-58.7%. "No" needs just over 32.8% of the remaining votes to prevail. The "No" side has scored a large victory despite some headlines still referring to a close vote or narrow lead. For every "Yes" vote, there has been about 1.6 "No" votes.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Somebody please correct me, but for all the world it looks to me as if the situation remains exactly the same as it was last week. The Greeks will not accept the package that they wouldn't accept last week without a public referendum.
    "I believe that man will not merely endure: he will prevail. He is immortal, not because he alone among creatures has an inexhaustible voice, but because he has a soul, a spirit capable of compassion and sacrifice and endurance." William Faulkner

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    So, what happens now?
    For now it becomes a game of political clout. Greece is not going to voluntarily leave the EU/Euro so it would take a political effort by several other members to force the issue and we not not too confident there is enough political pressure to force Greece out.

    Assuming the referendum does fail, we are back to negotiations. Technically speaking Greece is already in default on an IMF payment, for however long that continues and/or how many more payments are missed is anyone's guess but the further we go the more pressure there is to find some solution or have it all break down.

    Greece wants to continue with fiscal irresponsibility and have other member nations forgive them for it. Several others, mostly lead by Germany, are against it. They want Greece to submit to fiscal / economic policy reforms and changes to pension plans in exchange for some deal.

    From my chair a "no" vote does not change the basic roadblock, it is not all of a sudden going to mean Greece can continue with fiscal irresponsibility and have no repercussions for it.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Greece is like the spoiled child of privilege. Always having mommy and daddy pay the way for their indulgent lifestyle. Time to kick the ingrates out of the house and let them sink or swim on their own. Canada only supports the IMF to a small amount but I'd be opposed to even one more penny going to prop up these idiots. As noted this morning, Greece has an economy about the size of South Carolina - if they fail, big deal - a few days of yoyoing on the stock market and then forgotten. Maybe then, with their tail between their legs, they'll come to their senses and pay the piper for their decades of indulgence.

    And let's not forget, there's Portugal, and Italy, perhaps Spain, all lining up behind Greece waiting to see the outcome and what it will cost them going forward. If you cave into the first ransom holder, you lose the rest too. Cut them off now and cast them adrift.
    A Canadian conservative is one who believes in limited government and that the government should stay out of our wallets and out of our bedrooms.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Somebody please correct me, but for all the world it looks to me as if the situation remains exactly the same as it was last week. The Greeks will not accept the package that they wouldn't accept last week without a public referendum.
    Correct, nothing has changed. Maybe they proceed with the letter of near capitulation sent by Tsipras early last week. I doubt we'll see a referendum on that.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Somebody please correct me, but for all the world it looks to me as if the situation remains exactly the same as it was last week. The Greeks will not accept the package that they wouldn't accept last week without a public referendum.
    The Greek government wouldn't accept it last week, hence the referendum. The Greek people have now positively rejected it. The ball is now in the creditors' court. Are they going to withdraw all emergency support and force the Greeks out of the eurozone? Or are they going to negotiate a realistic and much improved offer which includes debt relief.

    The head of the German central bank has warned the German government that Grexit would cost the German economy tens of billions of Euros. They have created an emergency fund to cover that eventuality, but it only contains €14 billion, a fraction of what would be needed to avoid serious consequences for the German economy.

    Here's an even stronger warning.

    Those scenarios make the obvious point that forcing a Grexit would cost the rest of the Eurozone far, far more than it would have to commit by restructuring the Greek debt.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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