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Thread: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    From Reuters:

    Greece is asking its euro zone partners for an interim solution to its funding needs that would cover the rest of July while a long-term deal is sought, a Greek government official said on Monday.

    Greek Debt Crisis 2015 | Reuters.com

    It should be noted that Greece made a similar request for bridge financing that was rejected by the EU/ECB/IMF prior to Greece's abandoning the previous round of talks in favor of a referendum. Unless Greece begins the legislative process aimed at adopting at least some measures that demonstrate a willingness to engage in structural reform and/or offers a credible proposal beyond its request for bridge financing, it remains to be seen how the EU will treat this request.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Apparently, the European Finance Ministers who showed up for today's discussions were stunned by Greece's failure to produce a plan. From The New York Times:

    Greece’s prospects for staying in Europe’s currency union darkened on Tuesday after the new Greek finance minister showed up for an emergency meeting in Brussels without a specific new proposal, leaving European finance ministers aghast and unable to judge whether a deal for another bailout package was possible...

    Greece’s delay in outlining what it wants, the latest in a long series of surprise moves by Greek negotiators that have shredded the European Union’s rigid procedures and etiquette, means that Athens lost at least another day in an already tight schedule to try to break months of deadlock and unlock funding so that it can reopen its banks and avoid a potentially calamitous financial collapse.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/bu...T.nav=top-news

    As noted earlier, the current Greek government's lack of urgency is shocking. Of course, it is plausible that the current government is seeking to exit the Eurozone, but in a fashion in which it could try to evade responsibility for an outcome, which remains widely opposed by Greece's people. It's difficult to attribute all of the responsibility for today's failure to utter incompetence, especially as the Greek government was explicitly advised that it needed to come to Brussels with a proposal.

    Although Greece is expected to formally request funding from the European Stability Mechanism tonight or tomorrow, it will probably be difficult to get the unanimous support required should the current Greek government fail to offer some credible demonstration that it (1) understands the magnitude of risks facing its people from a failure to reopen banks, (2) wishes to make a serious effort to avert that situation, and (3) is willing to assume the responsibility for launching and sustaining that effort. Today's inaction may well have further undermined support among the countries Greece needs, unless, of course, the current government really wants to abandon the Euro.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Greece has now requested ESM funding. There's no word about whether Greece has complemented this request with a structural reform proposal.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Greece has now requested ESM funding. There's no word about whether Greece has complemented this request with a structural reform proposal.
    No surprises there.



    I'm suspecting the USA will overtly intervene soon enough to broker a some sort of compromise.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Apparently, the European Finance Ministers who showed up for today's discussions were stunned by Greece's failure to produce a plan. From The New York Times:

    Greece’s prospects for staying in Europe’s currency union darkened on Tuesday after the new Greek finance minister showed up for an emergency meeting in Brussels without a specific new proposal, leaving European finance ministers aghast and unable to judge whether a deal for another bailout package was possible...

    Greece’s delay in outlining what it wants, the latest in a long series of surprise moves by Greek negotiators that have shredded the European Union’s rigid procedures and etiquette, means that Athens lost at least another day in an already tight schedule to try to break months of deadlock and unlock funding so that it can reopen its banks and avoid a potentially calamitous financial collapse.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/bu...T.nav=top-news

    As noted earlier, the current Greek government's lack of urgency is shocking. Of course, it is plausible that the current government is seeking to exit the Eurozone, but in a fashion in which it could try to evade responsibility for an outcome, which remains widely opposed by Greece's people. It's difficult to attribute all of the responsibility for today's failure to utter incompetence, especially as the Greek government was explicitly advised that it needed to come to Brussels with a proposal.

    Although Greece is expected to formally request funding from the European Stability Mechanism tonight or tomorrow, it will probably be difficult to get the unanimous support required should the current Greek government fail to offer some credible demonstration that it (1) understands the magnitude of risks facing its people from a failure to reopen banks, (2) wishes to make a serious effort to avert that situation, and (3) is willing to assume the responsibility for launching and sustaining that effort. Today's inaction may well have further undermined support among the countries Greece needs, unless, of course, the current government really wants to abandon the Euro.
    I cannot remember exactly, but I am not sure that the esm requires unanimity or even approval by the owners. The board could lose their jobs, if they acted out of line, but it is not clear, what the owners really want behind the curtains.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    I cannot remember exactly, but I am not sure that the esm requires unanimity or even approval by the owners. The board could lose their jobs, if they acted out of line, but it is not clear, what the owners really want behind the curtains.
    From the ESM's FAQs:

    The most important decisions taken by the Board of Governors require mutual consent (unanimity). These include decisions to provide stability support to an ESM Member, the choice of instruments, conditions and terms of such support, calling in authorised unpaid capital (with the exception of emergency capital calls), changing the authorised capital stock and adapting the maximum lending volume.

    http://www.esm.europa.eu/pdf/FAQ%20ESM%20041020121.pdf (A5, p.2)

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    Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Sunday is the big summit apparently. Not just euro group, but all 28 eu countries called to convene. Grexit seems to be the official line if Athens doesn't present anything.

    Maybe Cameron has the answers?

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben K. View Post
    Sunday is the big summit apparently. Not just euro group, but all 28 eu countries called to convene. Grexit seems to be the official line if Athens doesn't present anything.

    Maybe Cameron has the answers?
    The latest news said Greece will present a plan tomorrow, would be able to get it through their parliament by Sunday, and the odds of a compromise solution have dramatically increased. Fingers crossed. Of course a zillion things can still go wrong but there seems to be some hope.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    The latest news said Greece will present a plan tomorrow, would be able to get it through their parliament by Sunday, and the odds of a compromise solution have dramatically increased. Fingers crossed. Of course a zillion things can still go wrong but there seems to be some hope.
    At today's meeting, the Greek Prime Minister was roundly criticized for destabilizing the situation and failing to appreciate Europe's efforts to assist Greece. In addition, Europe made clear that it has a plan in place for Greece's exit from the Euro Zone.

    From Bloomberg.com:

    Behind the doors of the Justus Lipsius building in the heart of the political district in Brussels, the euro-region’s leaders rounded on the Greek prime minister for destabilizing the currency union before Germany’s Angela Merkel emerged to deliver an official ultimatum.

    In a tense and at times emotional meeting, Tsipras’s European peers told him he’d failed to appreciate the efforts the continent’s voters and taxpayers had made to help the Greek people and blamed him for escalating tensions across the region…

    “Party time at the expense of others in Greece has come to an end,” Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said. “Europe and the euro area are surely unprepared to pay for the irresponsible behavior of the new Greek government.”


    EU Tells Tsipras the Party

    IMO, President Grybauskaite is being mild in describing the Syriza government's behavior as "irresponsible." It has been astonishingly reckless and self-destructive and has inflicted a wholly unnecessary and fully avoidable banking crisis on Greece's people. That the government failed to come prepared for today's meeting with a plan just highlights its lack of constructive attitude and indifference to the real hardship its actions have imposed on the Greek people.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From the ESM's FAQs:

    The most important decisions taken by the Board of Governors require mutual consent (unanimity). These include decisions to provide stability support to an ESM Member, the choice of instruments, conditions and terms of such support, calling in authorised unpaid capital (with the exception of emergency capital calls), changing the authorised capital stock and adapting the maximum lending volume.

    http://www.esm.europa.eu/pdf/FAQ%20ESM%20041020121.pdf (A5, p.2)
    Thank you. That is interesting.

    I feel uncomfortable with it though, as I remember that this was said, when the debate about getting esm through the constitutional court in Germany. At the time i read the esm treaty paper and found the wording did not support that statement in all cases and that it was impossible to guarantee it in any event as the management of the esm are legally immune to prosecution. But I will see if I have time to reread the document.

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