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Thread: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead


    "In the evaluation of the package provided in 2010, the IMF said: "Given the danger of contagion, the report judges the programme to have been a necessity, even though the Fund had misgivings about debt sustainability.


    "There was, however, a tension between the need to support Greece and the concern that debt was not sustainable with high probability (a condition for exceptional access).

    "In response, the exceptional access criterion was amended to lower the bar for debt sustainability in systemic cases. The baseline still showed debt to be sustainable, as is required for all Fund programmes."

    In the event, the report added, the Fund was open to criticism for making economic projections that were too optimistic."



    Worth noting that the "mistake" was just in the projections of how much hardship it may cause. The report seems to still confirm that the action was needed under the conditions Greece faced.






    //

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben K. View Post
    Varoufakis has resigned. They're an unpredictable bunch. :/
    Not really.

    " First, though he came from the centre-left towards Syriza, Varoufakis ended up consistently taking a harder line than many others in the Greek cabinet over the shape of the deal to be done, and the kind of resistance they might have to unleash if the Germans refused a deal.

    Second, because Varoufakis is an economist, not a politician. His entire career, and his academic qualifications are built on the conviction that a) austerity does not work; b) the Eurozone will collapse unless it becomes a union for recycling tax from rich countries to poor countries; c) Greece is insolvent and its debts need to be cancelled.

    By those measures, any deal Greece can do this week will falls short of what he thinks will work.


    On top of that, politicians are built for compromise. Tsipras has to work the party machine, the government machine, the machine of parliament. Varoufakis’ machine is his own brain.

    If he wound up the creditors it was for a reason: they’d convinced themselves that Tsipras was a Greek Tony Blair and would simply betray his promises and compromise on taking office.

    The lenders detested Varoufakis because he looked and sounded like one of them. He spoke the language of the IMF and ECB, and turned their own logic against them. But he achieved his objective: he convinced the lenders Greece was serious. ..."

    - See more at: Yanis Varoufakis: the economist who wouldn’t play politics | Paul Mason | Paul Mason
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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    It's that very boat anchor that keeps Germany's exports outside Europe relatively cheap. Your Mercedes would have been more expensive in Deutchmarks, and they wouldn't sell so many abroad.
    Hows the Euro doing? How are the Greek banks doing? How are stocks doing? Hell...how are GREEKS doing?

    Greece is a nightmare. It isnt getting better its getting worse. They dont want to take steps to get better. If the EU wants to do this again every few years...be my guest.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    Hows the Euro doing? How are the Greek banks doing? How are stocks doing? Hell...how are GREEKS doing?

    Greece is a nightmare. It isnt getting better its getting worse. They dont want to take steps to get better. If the EU wants to do this again every few years...be my guest.

    It seems that from the Greek point of view, all the issues/problems they are facing is "someone else's fault". And they want a painless solution. (which just ain't going to happen.)

    Just a perception.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by pragmatic View Post

    "In the evaluation of the package provided in 2010, the IMF said: "Given the danger of contagion, the report judges the programme to have been a necessity, even though the Fund had misgivings about debt sustainability.


    "There was, however, a tension between the need to support Greece and the concern that debt was not sustainable with high probability (a condition for exceptional access).

    "In response, the exceptional access criterion was amended to lower the bar for debt sustainability in systemic cases. The baseline still showed debt to be sustainable, as is required for all Fund programmes."

    In the event, the report added, the Fund was open to criticism for making economic projections that were too optimistic."



    Worth noting that the "mistake" was just in the projections of how much hardship it may cause. The report seems to still confirm that the action was needed under the conditions Greece faced.


    //

    Except the result of their miscalculation was to screw Greece even further into debt, with most of the loans and extensions going to service the interest, boosting the ECB and IMF takings. Greece started out owing 120% of GDP, now five years of austerity sees them owing 180% They won't swallow any more of that "mistaken" cure.
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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by pragmatic View Post
    It seems that from the Greek point of view, all the issues/problems they are facing is "someone else's fault". And they want a painless solution. (which just ain't going to happen.)

    Just a perception.
    Its not unlike someone that has dug themselves into a huge financial hole going to a bank and demanding they bail them out but on the individuals terms...and not the banks.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    Its not unlike someone that has dug themselves into a huge financial hole going to a bank and demanding they bail them out but on the individuals terms...and not the banks.

    And maybe they'll pull it off. Dunno....

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Greece owes half as much again as it did before five years of austerity, with twentyfive percent unemployment, massive public service cuts, and people literally starving, yet the creditors are demanding more of the same, but deeper, until 2030 at least, with no prospect of any improvement. The Greek people just said "**** you, and the horse you came in on." Greek and European politicians of whatever party now have a baseline. The deal Greece almost agreed to last week is not going to pass. As the IMF now says, there must be some debt forgiveness in the package for it to work, which is what the Greeks have been saying from the start. The punitive nature of the stance of the ECB in particular is exposed.
    Last edited by Manc Skipper; 07-06-15 at 10:57 AM.
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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben K. View Post
    Varoufakis has resigned. They're an unpredictable bunch. :/
    Preemptive move by him to avoid getting fired.

    What is drowned by all the current and recent brouhaha is that Syriza is pretty rifted. It's not a particularly homogeneous bunch, merely a kind of roof organization under which all sorts of little camps have gathered.

    Many on the side of the lenders have expressed their distaste of him as a person, caused by his slanderous invective on practically all lenders. That may have influenced the Greek decision to get rid of him as a hindrance to getting the lenders back to the table, Varoufakis having served his purpose as an uncompromising brick wall to get the Greek position across (they think) but now not being what is needed.

    Frankly, IF he is/was such a problem to the lenders' side, then there's a lot of amateurism involved. When you do business you do business with anybody. You know that the high spirits and the rhetorics of campaigning have nothing to do with the everyday common reality that is to follow.

    More likely he's been recognized as being so uncompromising that sending him to a summit where compromise is the only solution would be a hindrance more than anything.

    That's all assuming there will be any compromise at all, something I seriously doubt.

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    Re: Greece referendum: Early results show 'No' vote ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by pragmatic View Post
    It seems that from the Greek point of view, all the issues/problems they are facing is "someone else's fault". And they want a painless solution. (which just ain't going to happen.)

    Just a perception.
    I think it's a wrong one. I've been watching masses of coverage and every time a Greek person, from politicians to professors to people in the street, they've said, "We got ourselves into this mess," more or less. The point is, the Troika have been digging them deeper into it with their failed solutions, not helping them dig themselves out.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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