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Thread: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

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    Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason : The Two-Way : NPR

    The U.S. economy keeps adding jobs at a steady pace, but the Labor Department report for June shows more people are also leaving the labor force and that wages are not rising.


    The economy added 223,000 jobs last month as unemployment fell to its lowest rate since 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. The Jobless rate dipped to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent in May.


    However, the number of net new jobs added in May was revised down to 254,000 from 280,000 previously reported. April's job gains were also revised downward.
    Retailers added about 33,000 jobs in June and manufacturing grew by 4,000 but construction jobs were unchanged, the report said.
    From the BLS report on April and May job revisions: Employment Situation Summary

    The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +221,000 to +187,000, and the change for May was revised from +280,000 to +254,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 60,000 lower than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 221,000 per month.
    So it seems that the devil is in the details with regards to revisions in the numbers. Also, while the unemployment rate may be dropping, wages are still stagnant (as they have been for decades) which is a serious problem.
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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    We have a record 94 million Americans of working age that aren't in the work force.

    Funny how we constantly hear threats to social security or medicare funding, but you never hear threats to reduce welfare.

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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason : The Two-Way : NPR



    From the BLS report on April and May job revisions: Employment Situation Summary



    So it seems that the devil is in the details with regards to revisions in the numbers. Also, while the unemployment rate may be dropping, wages are still stagnant (as they have been for decades) which is a serious problem.
    How does anyone expect wages ie ppp buying power to go up much with Euroland in recession, Russia out of the picture, China and Brazil stuttering and a number of domestic policies holding back the economy.

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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    We have a record 94 million Americans of working age that aren't in the work force.

    Funny how we constantly hear threats to social security or medicare funding, but you never hear threats to reduce welfare.
    It would not be pc to demand taking away welfare and would stake out 94 million votes against you.

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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    We have a record 94 million Americans of working age that aren't in the work force.

    Funny how we constantly hear threats to social security or medicare funding, but you never hear threats to reduce welfare.
    There are several reasons for that. The Baby Boomers are retiring; Automation; Most of the manufacturing we used to do, the jobs have been exported to every corner of the Earth and some are just too old and the companies don't want to hire them.


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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Statistics is a tricky thing. =) One can interpret it in many ways needed, but it's hard to understand for an average person what is actually going on.
    In fact, I don't like these monthly reports. Economy is a big and slow process, and everything could be much different in long-term. As well as not that enthusiastic.

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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    There are several reasons for that. The Baby Boomers are retiring; Automation; Most of the manufacturing we used to do, the jobs have been exported to every corner of the Earth and some are just too old and the companies don't want to hire them.
    And we have an insane number of people addicted to living on the government teet.

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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    We have a record 94 million Americans of working age that aren't in the work force.
    "working age?" The age is 16 and older, no upper limit. 38 million of those 94 are age 65 and older. And 11 million disabled under 65.


    And last month we had a record number of people IN the labor force.
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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Well, as per usual lately, the advertised numbers sound far better then the real situation is.

    Sure, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.3...but that was primarily because of the largest drop in the labor force participation rate in over a year. I would hardly call that a success for the economy.

    And, the headlines numbers are from the establishment survey and are influenced by the, IMO, highly subjective Birth/Death model adjustments.
    The household survey paints a rather different picture.

    According to the household survey:

    - there were 56,000 LESS Americans employed last month
    - there were 349,000(!) LESS Americans employed full time last month (with 111,000 more employed part time)

    - average weekly earnings did not budge from May - thus wages did not keep pace with inflation in June
    - and though the important 25-54 age range saw a rather paltry 111,000 more people employed - the highest average income 45-54 age range saw yet another drop (the fourth month in a row); this time of 49,000.

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm


    IMO, this was a lousy employment report.
    Last edited by DA60; 07-02-15 at 11:53 AM.
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    Re: Economy Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.3 Percent, But For The Wrong Reason : The Two-Way : NPR



    From the BLS report on April and May job revisions: Employment Situation Summary



    So it seems that the devil is in the details with regards to revisions in the numbers. Also, while the unemployment rate may be dropping, wages are still stagnant (as they have been for decades) which is a serious problem.
    They always "revise down". It really is a joke the way employment is "tracked".

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