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Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

Jack Hays said:
Our voluntary compliance is substantially (as in by a light year) greater than the Greeks'.
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Alright, alright! You win. They should be like Democrats and pay up. ;)

And Andalublue still has you on "the poor are taxed at source."
 
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Chagos said:
Where I agree in principle, also on Syriza not having had any hand in bringing the state to where it wound up, I disagree on the no-responsibility take of Tzipras and Varoufakis in this current stalemate.

These two (and their minions) are beginning to make it sound like they got a call last Thursday, where the bank manager asked them to come in for a talk. To then tell them that their credit line has been canceled.

The main problem of the Greek people currently is that they're not being told the truth by their own. They weren't told it with the impossible promises made during the last election campaign, not with Syriza and associates getting elected and maintaining their stance that they could end austerity, and they're not being told it now with the delusion upheld that all will be well in the future, if only a nation of 11 million and of negligible economy will stand up to the 28 other EU states (inside or outside the currency) and their 500+ million people, a large part of who actually contribute to the coffers rather than taking from.

In this Tzipras and Co. are as prevaricating as all predecessors that profligated the country into its current state.

The sense and reason of imposing austerity on a nation that's already failing economically is another topic altogether, as is the issue of inviting in a country like Greece against all common fiscal sense in the first place..

But today where HERE and that's where the music plays.

This lamentable state has been going on for the past 5 years (as far as surfacing and addressing is concerned) and has gone completely South as of January this year.

By the latest count it's going to be a "duo". The IMF is unlikely to concern itself any further with a bunch of crooks that publicly declare not repaying any debt to it anymore.

If these latest negotiations were mismanaged (mainly) by the EU finance ministers (not the Troika), then I don't know what the heck to call Tzipras' and Souvlaki's antics. Because even "mismanagement" contains the word "manage".

I don't know enough people in Greece to get a representative picture but those I talk to are all going to vote "yes" (to Europe).

With Syriza getting 36+ pct of the vote in January on promises of what by now is clear they can't deliver, I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Greeks go the "yes" route as well.

Even if Syriza got a bit more than Hitler in November 1932.

I hold the Greeks not to be so daft as not to know that "money for nothing and the chicks for free" is strictly something for the HIFI.
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I disagree with you almost entirely, for a number of reasons:

1. The EU knew what previous Greek governments were doing to falsify the stats, and allowed them to join the Eurozone anyway.
2. The Troika know that their austerity approach has failed, and acknowledge that it cannot work to turn the situation around, yet insist on imposing it.
3. The EU know that their intransigence risks the end of the Euro project, but cannot or will not show any leadership or imagination in changing a failed and failing policy.
4. The Syriza government must be feeling bolstered by the growing evidence that suggests that a Grexit, whilst almost unbearable in its short-term consequences, suggests possible medium- to long-term recovery that Troika austerity measures guarantee never to deliver, as the IMF's own analysis shows.
5. The IMF's double standards in its attitude towards Ukraine demonstrates that it is pursuing a political rather than economic agenda, applying its conditionality precepts towards Greece, but not towards Ukraine.
 
Jack Hays said:
Our voluntary compliance is substantially (as in by a light year) greater than the Greeks'.
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Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

How do they get away with that? We've seen pictures of average citizens in the past few days withdrawing their money from the banks, so someone must know how much people have. Do they allow a lot of write-offs that don't have to be substantiated? It sounds like the EU considers the entire country of Greece one big welfare recipient. :shock:
 
Paul Krugman:
" ...Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro. To understand why I say this, you need to realize that most ... of what you’ve heard about Greek profligacy and irresponsibility is false. Yes, the Greek government was spending beyond its means in the late 2000s. But ... all the austerity measures ... been more than enough to eliminate the original deficit and turn it into a large surplus.
So why didn’t this happen? Because the Greek economy collapsed, largely as a result of those very austerity measures, dragging revenues down with it. And this collapse, in turn, had a lot to do with the euro, which trapped Greece in an economic straitjacket. Cases of successful austerity ... typically involve large currency devaluations... But Greece, without its own currency, didn’t have that option. . .."

Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Greece Over the Brink
 
Andalublue said:
Here's the current state of play. Here are three compelling reasons why the Troika needs to change its direction:

1. The strategy the Troika are insisting Greece pursue has increased the debt, destroyed any possibility of Greece recovering growth and thrown millions of ordinary Greeks, none of whom did anything wrong, into poverty. And that's not just my opinion, it's the IMF's own opinion. They admit that their strategy will not pull Greece out of crisis.

IMF: austerity measures would still leave Greece with unsustainable debt | World news | The Guardian
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From that link:
However, the creditors were correct in saying that they had compromised and the plans had some flexibility. They also suggested that Greece could provide alternative proposals as long as they are “sufficiently concrete and quantifiable”.
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.................and that's where the walk-out happened.

What is Tzipras going to tell the voters now that they're actually voting on in the referendum?

Beyond which it's been abundantly clear for some time that all measures so far are failing from pulling Greece out (something anyone with a bit of sense and knowledge of economics, especially Greek ones, could have told 5 years ago). But how does one find an accord on future strategies with a negotiating partner that has been lying to everybody, including his own people?

Even where oneself has shown little grasp of the actual issue in the past (Troika specifically but at behest of all European governments, generally)?

The rest (Ukraine, falling into Russia's arms, losing a NATO partner etc.) is right now conjecture. As is, talking of political agendas, the rising suspicion that Syriza has been wanting Greece out of the EU and the currency from the getgo.
 
Manc Skipper said:
Paul Krugman:
" ...Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro. To understand why I say this, you need to realize that most ... of what you’ve heard about Greek profligacy and irresponsibility is false. Yes, the Greek government was spending beyond its means in the late 2000s. But ... all the austerity measures ... been more than enough to eliminate the original deficit and turn it into a large surplus.
So why didn’t this happen? Because the Greek economy collapsed, largely as a result of those very austerity measures, dragging revenues down with it. And this collapse, in turn, had a lot to do with the euro, which trapped Greece in an economic straitjacket. Cases of successful austerity ... typically involve large currency devaluations... But Greece, without its own currency, didn’t have that option. . .."

Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Greece Over the Brink
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Lol !!

Krugman has the luxury of condemning the Greek people to the consequences of default. The Greek people should take one look at that bit of toxic advice and run the opposite way !
 
Andalublue said:
I disagree with you almost entirely, for a number of reasons:

1. The EU knew what previous Greek governments were doing to falsify the stats, and allowed them to join the Eurozone anyway.
2. The Troika know that their austerity approach has failed, and acknowledge that it cannot work to turn the situation around, yet insist on imposing it.
3. The EU know that their intransigence risks the end of the Euro project, but cannot or will not show any leadership or imagination in changing a failed and failing policy.
4. The Syriza government must be feeling bolstered by the growing evidence that suggests that a Grexit, whilst almost unbearable in its short-term consequences, suggests possible medium- to long-term recovery that Troika austerity measures guarantee never to deliver, as the IMF's own analysis shows.
5. The IMF's double standards in its attitude towards Ukraine demonstrates that it is pursuing a political rather than economic agenda, applying its conditionality precepts towards Greece, but not towards Ukraine.
Click to expand...


Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50%...

Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50% | Zero Hedge

" Case in point, on Friday the Finance Ministry proudly announced its budget deficit for the first eight months was "just" €12.5 billion, versus a target of €15.2 billion, leading some to wonder how it was possible that a country that has suffered terminal economic collapse, and in which the tax collectors have now joined everyone in striking and thus not collecting any tax revenue, could have a better than expected budget deficit. Turns out the answer was quite simple. According to Spiegel, Greece was lying about everything all along, and instead of a €12.5 billion deficit, the real revenue shortfall is nearly double this, or €20 billion, a number which will hardly incentivize anyone in Germany to give Greece the benefit of another delay, let along a third bailout as is now speculated. "
 
Andalublue said:
I disagree with you almost entirely, for a number of reasons:

1. The EU knew what previous Greek governments were doing to falsify the stats, and allowed them to join the Eurozone anyway.
Click to expand...
Yup.
2. The Troika know that their austerity approach has failed, and acknowledge that it cannot work to turn the situation around, yet insist on imposing it.
Click to expand...
Yup.
3. The EU know that their intransigence risks the end of the Euro project, but cannot or will not show any leadership or imagination in changing a failed and failing policy.
Click to expand...
Don't forget voices that consider the EU better off without Greece by now. Setting Greece as the example to show Portugal, Ireland and Spain that they did the right thing, despite all hardships.
4. The Syriza government must be feeling bolstered by the growing evidence that suggests that a Grexit, whilst almost unbearable in its short-term consequences, suggests possible medium- to long-term recovery that Troika austerity measures guarantee never to deliver, as the IMF's own analysis shows.
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The Syriza government is bolstered by the knowledge that EVERYbody will pile in to help, should it determine to leave EU and Euro. To prevent a human catastrophe from occurring. Which it otherwise will.

Any idea on Greece's economy? Own resources? Things it could free to liquidate into money?
5. The IMF's double standards in its attitude towards Ukraine demonstrates that it is pursuing a political rather than economic agenda, applying its conditionality precepts towards Greece, but not towards Ukraine.
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That's been covered and does not compare.
 
Fenton said:
The Greek people voted already.

The elected Tsipras. Its not Merkels fault he doesn't have the courage or conviction to be a leader.
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Tsipras is a damn hero, the guy's got coconut balls. This is 100% Europe's fault.
 
Fenton said:
Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50%...

Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50% | Zero Hedge

" Case in point, on Friday the Finance Ministry proudly announced its budget deficit for the first eight months was "just" €12.5 billion, versus a target of €15.2 billion, leading some to wonder how it was possible that a country that has suffered terminal economic collapse, and in which the tax collectors have now joined everyone in striking and thus not collecting any tax revenue, could have a better than expected budget deficit. Turns out the answer was quite simple. According to Spiegel, Greece was lying about everything all along, and instead of a €12.5 billion deficit, the real revenue shortfall is nearly double this, or €20 billion, a number which will hardly incentivize anyone in Germany to give Greece the benefit of another delay, let along a third bailout as is now speculated. "
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Interesting. Greek Prime Minister at the time of this attempted fraud? Antonis Samaras. Person Juncker and Merkel want to see returned to power in Greece? Antonis Samaras.
 
Chagos said:
That's been covered and does not compare.
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Yes, it clearly does, since the IMF is meant to make policy based on the best interests of its contributors and their financial interests alone. How is its Ukraine policy consistent with those principles? TBH, I've never bought that propaganda, the IMF has always been a neo-liberal political beast, but it proves Syriza's case that the Troika is not negotiating in good faith. Like there's anyone left who believes they have been anyway.
 
Peter Grimm said:
Tsipras is a damn hero, the guy's got coconut balls. This is 100% Europe's fault.
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No, it's not. Greek politicians of the centre-left and centre-right, Greek bankers (big time) and Goldman Sachs also bear a lot of responsibility for this catastrophe - it's been a group effort that has produced this cluster-f*** that Tsipras and Varoufakis are trying to resolve.

Agree on the coconuts though.
 
Andalublue said:
Yes, it clearly does, since the IMF is meant to make policy based on the best interests of its contributors and their financial interests alone. How is its Ukraine policy consistent with those principles? TBH, I've never bought that propaganda, the IMF has always been a neo-liberal political beast, but it proves Syriza's case that the Troika is not negotiating in good faith. Like there's anyone left who believes they have been anyway.
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They shouldn't have to negotiate and beg for money to begin with. Europe needs to decide whether it's a union or not. If so.... transfer of wealth between states is something that needs to happen regularly and smoothly...it needs to be accepted as such, and not thought of as a loan to begin with.

And it certainly doesn't need to involve international lenders like the IMF.

Does Mississippi need to go to the IMF when it needs money from New York?
 
Manc Skipper said:
Paul Krugman:
" ...Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro. To understand why I say this, you need to realize that most ... of what you’ve heard about Greek profligacy and irresponsibility is false. Yes, the Greek government was spending beyond its means in the late 2000s. But ... all the austerity measures ... been more than enough to eliminate the original deficit and turn it into a large surplus.
So why didn’t this happen? Because the Greek economy collapsed, largely as a result of those very austerity measures, dragging revenues down with it. And this collapse, in turn, had a lot to do with the euro, which trapped Greece in an economic straitjacket. Cases of successful austerity ... typically involve large currency devaluations... But Greece, without its own currency, didn’t have that option. . .."

Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Greece Over the Brink
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Agree with most if not all of it.

That's why I don't share into this ranting about socialism and the Greeks all doing nothing all day but let the sun shine on their bellies while lapping up third party loans. Bullcrap as anyone who knows Greece will have seen.

The whole problem right now though is that this current government is not the one to trust in negotiating a change of course.

For either side.

These current negotiations were not about finding viable future perspectives, they were about the immediate need to keep Greece liquid. That doesn't mean that awareness of the failure of policy held til now (on the EU and IMF side) is missing. Merkel even has made such sounds (as insiders rumor). But you don't leave everything til the last minute on the debtor's side and then walk out when your demands way beyond the day's agenda are not met there and then. Least of all do you tell the whole EU on what basis it should reform itself, respectively you're not the one to tell it.

Other heads of states have voters too and they don't take it kindly when you trumpet about at home on how you're the one who knows what's best for the remainder that's more than 50 times your size. And the one that's been paying all this time.

That kind of arrogance lodges not only in Tzipras, it's something of a national trait even where such self perception is improving.

Lousy on psychology.
 
polgara said:
Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

How do they get away with that? We've seen pictures of average citizens in the past few days withdrawing their money from the banks, so someone must know how much people have. Do they allow a lot of write-offs that don't have to be substantiated? It sounds like the EU considers the entire country of Greece one big welfare recipient. :shock:
Click to expand...

There are an infinite number of ways to evade, but most are a variant on the idea of paying the tax man personally a small percentage in return for his elimination of the tax bill.
 
Andalublue said:
No, it's not. Greek politicians of the centre-left and centre-right, Greek bankers (big time) and Goldman Sachs also bear a lot of responsibility for this catastrophe - it's been a group effort that has produced this cluster-f*** that Tsipras and Varoufakis are trying to resolve.

Agree on the coconuts though.
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I don't see it that way. Austerity does nothing except squeeze more blood out of a stone. A lot of people are suffering around the world just to maintain a competitive export advantage for Germany.... that's what it amounts to at the end of the day.

Greece needs to be allowed to grow. Its creditors' demands are ridiculous and hostile.
 
Peter Grimm said:
They shouldn't have to negotiate and beg for money to begin with. Europe needs to decide whether it's a union or not. If so.... transfer of wealth between states is something that needs to happen regularly and smoothly...it needs to be accepted as such, and not thought of as a loan to begin with.

And it certainly doesn't need to involve international lenders like the IMF.

Does Mississippi need to go to the IMF when it needs money from New York?
Click to expand...

Good points. An excellent debate about this on Cadena SER radio this evening made the same point, referring to the case of California's debt crisis. It was pointed out that the ECB and Eurogroup have been behaving as a group of creditors, rather than as a political union, demonstrating that the EU project may have run its course. No solidarity, no union.
 
Peter Grimm said:
They shouldn't have to negotiate and beg for money to begin with. Europe needs to decide whether it's a union or not. If so.... transfer of wealth between states is something that needs to happen regularly and smoothly...it needs to be accepted as such, and not thought of as a loan to begin with.
Click to expand...
The current position held by near everybody is that Europe not become a transfer union in its current state. You can consider that if there's an all-European government, something that individual populations are truly shy of. Without that it'll soon get to a state where any majority can vote that you shove part of your revenues into some other country and without conditions at that.

To marry that kind of setup with the complaints about lack of democratic processes, let alone impingement on national sovereignty that the Greeks are currently complaining most about is a tall order.
And it certainly doesn't need to involve international lenders like the IMF.
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That was mostly Merkel. An insurance to have more control in the same boat. Anyway, everybody spreads risk when they can so why not to the IMF. International lender is precisely what it is.

Does Mississippi need to go to the IMF when it needs money from New York?
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You mind letting us know the process by which Mississippi could even find a route to borrow from the Apple? Let alone the provisions?

Besides which the IMF lends to countries, not cities.
 
Andalublue said:
Good points. An excellent debate about this on Cadena SER radio this evening made the same point, referring to the case of California's debt crisis. It was pointed out that the ECB and Eurogroup have been behaving as a group of creditors, rather than as a political union, demonstrating that the EU project may have run its course. No solidarity, no union.
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Don't you understand that you cannot compare the EU to the US?

The US is a nation where it is also a union. The EU is nothing of the sort and the first step to ever even approach such a status would be for all its people to agree on voting a EU government with possible somebody like Merkel or Hollande heading it.

National elections would be still possible but reduced to municipal status.

Then and only then can this government decide to bail out Greece or Cyprus the way Madrid passes money to Andalucia or Rome to Campania.
 
Chagos said:
The current position held by near everybody is that Europe not become a transfer union in its current state. You can consider that if there's an all-European government, something that individual populations are truly shy of. Without that it'll soon get to a state where any majority can vote that you shove part of your revenues into some other country and without conditions at that.

To marry that kind of setup with the complaints about lack of democratic processes, let alone impingement on national sovereignty that the Greeks are currently complaining most about is a tall order. That was mostly Merkel. An insurance to have more control in the same boat. Anyway, everybody spreads risk when they can so why not to the IMF. International lender is precisely what it is.
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Oh I agree, there is a solid divide between what needs to happen and what is politically possible. And that, my friend, is highly concerning. Without the ability to transfer wealth from one state to the other, the Eurozone remains structurally unsound and crisis situations such as this one we're going through will remain a regular thing.

Chagos said:
You mind letting us know the process by which Mississippi could even find a route to borrow from the Apple? Let alone the provisions?

Besides which the IMF lends to countries, not cities.
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The USA has a federal government. US federal taxes are about 20% of GDP (compared to EU, which taxes about 1% of GDP), but US states barely tax at all (compared to EU, where the individual states tax heavily).

If Mississippi needs money, they go to the federal government (well-capitalized by the high taxes) and request federal spending or a grant. This process is normally unceremonious and, unlike the crisis in Greece, it doesn't make the front page of CNN and it doesn't panic global investors, nor does it stress global banks and lending institutions.

On the whole, New York pays more in federal taxes than it receives in allotments. But that's the way a union is supposed to work.
 
Jack Hays said:
There are an infinite number of ways to evade, but most are a variant on the idea of paying the tax man personally a small percentage in return for his elimination of the tax bill.
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In addition to which it should be noted that a competent tax administration is practically non-existent. That equates to lack of records/registrations.

Not for all and everybody but for many.

The real estate market is even worsely (if that is a word) administered. In most cases nobody knows who owns what. No idea whether it still applies today but in my time a house wasn't "complete" while the struts to support the setting roof were still up.
That meant loads of houses with struts (the gables). No completion, no registration, no taxes.

No building inspectors, no rules, no permits. No records.

If one of the few inspectors did come by, palm grease.

I couldn't even get a sample delivery (small can of harmless base chemical that one could still take on a plane then) thru customs without bribing the officers. To do the work they were paid to do already, not to turn a blind eye to something illegal (which it wasn't).

Greece is and was defunct in more ways than just economically. A culture as you rightly say.

I love the people to bits and always have but facts will be facts.
 
Peter Grimm said:
Oh I agree, there is a solid divide between what needs to happen and what is politically possible. And that, my friend, is highly concerning. Without the ability to transfer wealth from one state to the other, the Eurozone remains structurally unsound and crisis situations such as this one we're going through will remain a regular thing.
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That's it in a nutshell.


The USA has a federal government.
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............and there we have it. The EU does not.
US federal taxes are about 20% of GDP (compared to EU, which taxes about 1% of GDP), but US states barely tax at all (compared to EU, where the individual states tax heavily).

If Mississippi needs money, they go to the federal government (well-capitalized by the high taxes) and request federal spending or a grant. This process is normally unceremonious and, unlike the crisis in Greece, it doesn't make the front page of CNN and it doesn't panic global investors, nor does it stress global banks and lending institutions.

On the whole, New York pays more in federal taxes than it receives in allotments. But that's the way a union is supposed to work.
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Again, the union in this case is a federation. Germany is a federation, come to think of it. Transfers are common in both and in other countries, be they constituted as a confederation or not.

The EU is not a federation and as such not a union as the US is (are).
 
Chagos said:
That's it in a nutshell.


............and there we have it. The EU does not. Again, the union in this case is a federation. Germany is a federation, come to think of it. Transfers are common in both and in other countries, be they constituted as a confederation or not.

The EU is not a federation and as such not a union as the US is (are).
Click to expand...

And such being the case, it had no business forming a monetary union, as a monetary union without a fiscal policy backing it can never be structurally sound.
 
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