Don, I gotta ask.
What do you predict will happen if they default on the 30th?
Jet, whether Greek exit occurs on Tuesday or not, it will happen when Greece votes 'no' to the referendum, as I think they inevitably will. Talking to some Greek friends this week, the attitude on the street appears to be summed up by this quote from someone queueing up to withdraw cash from a bank:
“
It will be no from me, because Greeks are asked to decide between death and death by Europe. I’d rather die by my own choice in my own country, with fellow Greeks, rather than have someone else decide my fate.”
I don't think it matters much who delivers the coup de grace, the fact is that the Eurogroup are not offering anything. Their austerity measures have failed utterly. That austerity, that the Greeks have been suffering for 7 years have not only seen Greek debt continue to increase, but it has also killed economic growth, increased unemployment and done nothing to promote Greek exports, and yet those are exactly the things that it was claimed the austerity policy would achieve. Why would the Greeks believe that just more of the same would achieve in the future what it has failed to achieve at all in the past?
The second point to make is that reading the Eurogroup propaganda against Syriza, you'd get the impression that they are to blame for the Greek debt, the failed economic structures of the nation and the corrupt nature of the Greek banking sector. Syriza is the response to those things, and also to the very real and well-documented role that the EU and international institutions have played in creating this mess. Do IFKAT/Troika/Institutions (whatever they are calling themselves this week) believe that Greeks will blame Syriza, who didn't even exist when the debts were run up, or the external accomplices of the bankers and politicians, for the situation? Who would you trust to have the interests of Greek people as their key priority?
There's also a couple of other points to make about a Grexit. Paul Krugman puts it very clearly and succinctly
here. The consequences for the Eurozone may be extreme. The Troika's hubris at the prospect of forcing Greece into default may well prove to be the defining element that brings about the demise of the Eurozone.