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Thread: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

  1. #231
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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    Here's the current state of play. Here are three compelling reasons why the Troika needs to change its direction:

    1. The strategy the Troika are insisting Greece pursue has increased the debt, destroyed any possibility of Greece recovering growth and thrown millions of ordinary Greeks, none of whom did anything wrong, into poverty. And that's not just my opinion, it's the IMF's own opinion. They admit that their strategy will not pull Greece out of crisis.

    IMF: austerity measures would still leave Greece with unsustainable debt | World news | The Guardian
    From that link:
    However, the creditors were correct in saying that they had compromised and the plans had some flexibility. They also suggested that Greece could provide alternative proposals as long as they are “sufficiently concrete and quantifiable”.
    .................and that's where the walk-out happened.

    What is Tzipras going to tell the voters now that they're actually voting on in the referendum?

    Beyond which it's been abundantly clear for some time that all measures so far are failing from pulling Greece out (something anyone with a bit of sense and knowledge of economics, especially Greek ones, could have told 5 years ago). But how does one find an accord on future strategies with a negotiating partner that has been lying to everybody, including his own people?

    Even where oneself has shown little grasp of the actual issue in the past (Troika specifically but at behest of all European governments, generally)?

    The rest (Ukraine, falling into Russia's arms, losing a NATO partner etc.) is right now conjecture. As is, talking of political agendas, the rising suspicion that Syriza has been wanting Greece out of the EU and the currency from the getgo.

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    Paul Krugman:
    " ...Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro. To understand why I say this, you need to realize that most ... of what you’ve heard about Greek profligacy and irresponsibility is false. Yes, the Greek government was spending beyond its means in the late 2000s. But ... all the austerity measures ... been more than enough to eliminate the original deficit and turn it into a large surplus.
    So why didn’t this happen? Because the Greek economy collapsed, largely as a result of those very austerity measures, dragging revenues down with it. And this collapse, in turn, had a lot to do with the euro, which trapped Greece in an economic straitjacket. Cases of successful austerity ... typically involve large currency devaluations... But Greece, without its own currency, didn’t have that option. . .."

    Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Greece Over the Brink
    Lol !!

    Krugman has the luxury of condemning the Greek people to the consequences of default. The Greek people should take one look at that bit of toxic advice and run the opposite way !
    " If no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else ? "
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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    I disagree with you almost entirely, for a number of reasons:

    1. The EU knew what previous Greek governments were doing to falsify the stats, and allowed them to join the Eurozone anyway.
    2. The Troika know that their austerity approach has failed, and acknowledge that it cannot work to turn the situation around, yet insist on imposing it.
    3. The EU know that their intransigence risks the end of the Euro project, but cannot or will not show any leadership or imagination in changing a failed and failing policy.
    4. The Syriza government must be feeling bolstered by the growing evidence that suggests that a Grexit, whilst almost unbearable in its short-term consequences, suggests possible medium- to long-term recovery that Troika austerity measures guarantee never to deliver, as the IMF's own analysis shows.
    5. The IMF's double standards in its attitude towards Ukraine demonstrates that it is pursuing a political rather than economic agenda, applying its conditionality precepts towards Greece, but not towards Ukraine.

    Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50%...

    Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50% | Zero Hedge

    " Case in point, on Friday the Finance Ministry proudly announced its budget deficit for the first eight months was "just" €12.5 billion, versus a target of €15.2 billion, leading some to wonder how it was possible that a country that has suffered terminal economic collapse, and in which the tax collectors have now joined everyone in striking and thus not collecting any tax revenue, could have a better than expected budget deficit. Turns out the answer was quite simple. According to Spiegel, Greece was lying about everything all along, and instead of a €12.5 billion deficit, the real revenue shortfall is nearly double this, or €20 billion, a number which will hardly incentivize anyone in Germany to give Greece the benefit of another delay, let along a third bailout as is now speculated. "
    " If no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else ? "
    Ronald Reagan

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    I disagree with you almost entirely, for a number of reasons:

    1. The EU knew what previous Greek governments were doing to falsify the stats, and allowed them to join the Eurozone anyway.
    Yup.
    2. The Troika know that their austerity approach has failed, and acknowledge that it cannot work to turn the situation around, yet insist on imposing it.
    Yup.
    3. The EU know that their intransigence risks the end of the Euro project, but cannot or will not show any leadership or imagination in changing a failed and failing policy.
    Don't forget voices that consider the EU better off without Greece by now. Setting Greece as the example to show Portugal, Ireland and Spain that they did the right thing, despite all hardships.
    4. The Syriza government must be feeling bolstered by the growing evidence that suggests that a Grexit, whilst almost unbearable in its short-term consequences, suggests possible medium- to long-term recovery that Troika austerity measures guarantee never to deliver, as the IMF's own analysis shows.
    The Syriza government is bolstered by the knowledge that EVERYbody will pile in to help, should it determine to leave EU and Euro. To prevent a human catastrophe from occurring. Which it otherwise will.

    Any idea on Greece's economy? Own resources? Things it could free to liquidate into money?
    5. The IMF's double standards in its attitude towards Ukraine demonstrates that it is pursuing a political rather than economic agenda, applying its conditionality precepts towards Greece, but not towards Ukraine.
    That's been covered and does not compare.

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    The Greek people voted already.

    The elected Tsipras. Its not Merkels fault he doesn't have the courage or conviction to be a leader.
    Tsipras is a damn hero, the guy's got coconut balls. This is 100% Europe's fault.

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50%...

    Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50% | Zero Hedge

    " Case in point, on Friday the Finance Ministry proudly announced its budget deficit for the first eight months was "just" €12.5 billion, versus a target of €15.2 billion, leading some to wonder how it was possible that a country that has suffered terminal economic collapse, and in which the tax collectors have now joined everyone in striking and thus not collecting any tax revenue, could have a better than expected budget deficit. Turns out the answer was quite simple. According to Spiegel, Greece was lying about everything all along, and instead of a €12.5 billion deficit, the real revenue shortfall is nearly double this, or €20 billion, a number which will hardly incentivize anyone in Germany to give Greece the benefit of another delay, let along a third bailout as is now speculated. "
    Interesting. Greek Prime Minister at the time of this attempted fraud? Antonis Samaras. Person Juncker and Merkel want to see returned to power in Greece? Antonis Samaras.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Chagos View Post

    That's been covered and does not compare.
    Yes, it clearly does, since the IMF is meant to make policy based on the best interests of its contributors and their financial interests alone. How is its Ukraine policy consistent with those principles? TBH, I've never bought that propaganda, the IMF has always been a neo-liberal political beast, but it proves Syriza's case that the Troika is not negotiating in good faith. Like there's anyone left who believes they have been anyway.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    Tsipras is a damn hero, the guy's got coconut balls. This is 100% Europe's fault.
    No, it's not. Greek politicians of the centre-left and centre-right, Greek bankers (big time) and Goldman Sachs also bear a lot of responsibility for this catastrophe - it's been a group effort that has produced this cluster-f*** that Tsipras and Varoufakis are trying to resolve.

    Agree on the coconuts though.
    "The crisis will end when fear changes sides" - Pablo Iglesias Turrión

    "Austerity is used as a cover to reconfigure society and increase inequality and injustice." - Jeremy Corbyn

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Andalublue View Post
    Yes, it clearly does, since the IMF is meant to make policy based on the best interests of its contributors and their financial interests alone. How is its Ukraine policy consistent with those principles? TBH, I've never bought that propaganda, the IMF has always been a neo-liberal political beast, but it proves Syriza's case that the Troika is not negotiating in good faith. Like there's anyone left who believes they have been anyway.
    They shouldn't have to negotiate and beg for money to begin with. Europe needs to decide whether it's a union or not. If so.... transfer of wealth between states is something that needs to happen regularly and smoothly...it needs to be accepted as such, and not thought of as a loan to begin with.

    And it certainly doesn't need to involve international lenders like the IMF.

    Does Mississippi need to go to the IMF when it needs money from New York?

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    Re: Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    Paul Krugman:
    " ...Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro. To understand why I say this, you need to realize that most ... of what you’ve heard about Greek profligacy and irresponsibility is false. Yes, the Greek government was spending beyond its means in the late 2000s. But ... all the austerity measures ... been more than enough to eliminate the original deficit and turn it into a large surplus.
    So why didn’t this happen? Because the Greek economy collapsed, largely as a result of those very austerity measures, dragging revenues down with it. And this collapse, in turn, had a lot to do with the euro, which trapped Greece in an economic straitjacket. Cases of successful austerity ... typically involve large currency devaluations... But Greece, without its own currency, didn’t have that option. . .."

    Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Greece Over the Brink
    Agree with most if not all of it.

    That's why I don't share into this ranting about socialism and the Greeks all doing nothing all day but let the sun shine on their bellies while lapping up third party loans. Bullcrap as anyone who knows Greece will have seen.

    The whole problem right now though is that this current government is not the one to trust in negotiating a change of course.

    For either side.

    These current negotiations were not about finding viable future perspectives, they were about the immediate need to keep Greece liquid. That doesn't mean that awareness of the failure of policy held til now (on the EU and IMF side) is missing. Merkel even has made such sounds (as insiders rumor). But you don't leave everything til the last minute on the debtor's side and then walk out when your demands way beyond the day's agenda are not met there and then. Least of all do you tell the whole EU on what basis it should reform itself, respectively you're not the one to tell it.

    Other heads of states have voters too and they don't take it kindly when you trumpet about at home on how you're the one who knows what's best for the remainder that's more than 50 times your size. And the one that's been paying all this time.

    That kind of arrogance lodges not only in Tzipras, it's something of a national trait even where such self perception is improving.

    Lousy on psychology.

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