Supreme Court Upholds Obama Health Care Subsidies[W:700]

clownboy said:

No. Tell us, how many of that original 42 million uninsured are now insured? That was supposed to be the problem addressed. Second question, of the ones already insured (270 million of us) when Obamacare passed, how many of those are still insured?

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

Friend, we've got data. 21 months worth now, encompassing the spending of the most high-cost and high-needs people likely to enroll. You're just ignoring it. Because the costs are way less than projected. As have been, by the way, the savings--which you've clearly acknowledged exist in this very thread (e.g., post #1029). So let's not pretend you've suddenly forgotten how much money the ACA is also saving.

But I'm glad you recognize these programs are here to stay. You're ahead of many of your ideological stripe in that respect.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

Looks like we're at about 12 million right now (nearly 30% of the pre-ACA uninsured). And dropping every year.

Click to expand...

Conservative said:

Friend, here is the budget of the United States and the line items. Please tell me where healthcare costs are in these numbers??

National defense ............................................................................................ 605,034
International affairs......................................................................................... 46,692
General science, space, and technology ....................................................... 28,624
Energy ............................................................................................................ 5,277
Natural resources and environment............................................................... 35,102
Agriculture ...................................................................................................... 26,118
Commerce and housing credit ....................................................................... -95,319
Transportation ................................................................................................ 91,474
Community and regional development .......................................................... 21,556
Education, training, employment and social services.................................... 89,353
Health ............................................................................................................. 409,402
Medicare......................................................................................................... 511,691
Income security .............................................................................................. 513,929
Social security ................................................................................................ 850,536
Veterans benefits and services ...................................................................... 149,617
Administration of justice ................................................................................. 52,354
General Government ..................................................................................... 22,794
Net interest ..................................................................................................... 227,953
Undistributed offsetting receipts .................................................................... -88,042
Total outlays ............................................................................................. 3,504,145

Click to expand...

Conservative said:

Now isn't that awesome, how many were eligible for Medicaid but hadn't signed up?

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

Looks like we're at about 12 million right now (nearly 30% of the pre-ACA uninsured). And dropping every year.

Click to expand...

clownboy said:

So, not even half, and how much did this 30% cost us?

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

~25% less than promised.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

Maybe under health and Medicare? Just a guess.

Click to expand...

clownboy said:

No, no. Nice try. The promised cost was for all 42 million. What you're saying is they've burned through three quarters of the budget to only get 30% of the way. Yeah, that's cause for celebration! :roll:

Click to expand...

Conservative said:

Ok, show me the savings?

Health ............................................................................................................. 409,402 358,317 r 51,085
Medicare......................................................................................................... 511,691 497,825 13,866

Health costs in 2014 are 409 billion compared to 358 billion in 2013

Medicare costs in 2014 are 511 billion vs. 497 billion.

Maybe the Treasury is wrong. Stop buying what you are told. I gave you the Treasury link and that is the bank account of the United States, NOT CBO

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

Uh, no. Pre-ACA, the CBO had Medicaid spending at $321 million and new exchange subsidies at $20 billion in FY14. Actual numbers had Medicaid at $301 and exchange subsidies around $13 billion in FY14.

Much cheaper than promised.



Is this Groundhog Day? I already did show the savings. Medicare savings has been way more than was required to make the ACA's books balance.

Medicare Spending Trends, in Billions of Dollars (red values are actual)

2010​

2011​

2012​

2013​

2014​

2015​

2016​

2017​

2018​

2019​

2020​

Total, 2010-2020​

Pre-Reform (Jan. 2010)

528​

574​

581​

638​

710​

735​

794​

830​

867​

962​

1,038​

8,257​

Required by Reform to Balance Books (post-reform projections)

524​

566​

569​

617​

652​

684​

741​

772​

805​

878​

929​

7,737​

Now (March 2015)

524​

554​

551​

585​

600​

626​

671​

681​

698​

775​

829​

7,094​

Actual Savings Relative to Pre-ACA

4 (0.8%)​

20 (3.5%)​

30 (5.2%)​

53 (8.3%)​

110 (15.5%)​

109 (14.8%)​

123 (15.5%)​

149 (18.0%)​

169 (19.5%)​

187 (19.4%)​

209 (20.1%)​

1,163 (14.1%)​

Click to expand...

Conservative said:

Except the reality that I have history on my side on how the Federal Govt. runs social programs. I didn't make the claim of savings, I pointed out history.

Click to expand...

clownboy said:

Nice try, but the full job is not even half done and you've already spent most of the budget for it.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

Uh, no. Pre-ACA, the CBO had Medicaid spending at $321 million and new exchange subsidies at $20 billion in FY14. Actual numbers had Medicaid at $301 and exchange subsidies around $13 billion in FY14.

Much cheaper than promised.



Is this Groundhog Day? I already did show the savings. Medicare savings has been way more than was required to make the ACA's books balance.

Medicare Spending Trends, in Billions of Dollars (red values are actual)

2010​

2011​

2012​

2013​

2014​

2015​

2016​

2017​

2018​

2019​

2020​

Total, 2010-2020​

Pre-Reform (Jan. 2010)

528​

574​

581​

638​

710​

735​

794​

830​

867​

962​

1,038​

8,257​

Required by Reform to Balance Books (post-reform projections)

524​

566​

569​

617​

652​

684​

741​

772​

805​

878​

929​

7,737​

Now (March 2015)

524​

554​

551​

585​

600​

626​

671​

681​

698​

775​

829​

7,094​

Actual Savings Relative to Pre-ACA

4 (0.8%)​

20 (3.5%)​

30 (5.2%)​

53 (8.3%)​

110 (15.5%)​

109 (14.8%)​

123 (15.5%)​

149 (18.0%)​

169 (19.5%)​

187 (19.4%)​

209 (20.1%)​

1,163 (14.1%)​

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

The ACA is well below budget at this point. Do you understand numbers?

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

The ACA is well below budget at this point. Do you understand numbers?

Click to expand...

Conservative said:

I gave you the link to the Treasury site posting Medicare and Health ACTUAL Costs and you counter with what the CBO tells you about Medicare not ACA. Which do you believe, your bank account or an office that takes assumptions from Congress? By the way, you keep talking about Medicare when ACA was to cover the uninsured, people are already insured by Medicare.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

If you want to say Medicare cost $511 billion, I'm happy to tack another $89 billion in savings on. Is that what you want to do?

Click to expand...

Fearandloathing said:

Then can you explain why the Insurance companies are already asking for up to 40% rate hikes?

Even if you are below budget, you still have taxpayers $ being routed into the pockets of for profit insurance companies through subsidies

Click to expand...

Chomsky said:

Wha?

I'm not going to defend the ACA, because it's a POS mandatory private insurance program from the Heritage Foundation, prototyped by Mitt Romney, and is currently a predominately tax-payer hand-out (well intentioned, or not) to the private insurance industry. I will begrudgingly admit it is better than the 'nothing' we've had before, and has made some minimal progress, though nothing at all like the single-payer/private provider system it should've been.

But I take exception on your claim of private markets being superior, when in the case of healthcare that is definitely not correct.

MediCAid (& MediCare) have an overhead administrative rate of around 5% - private insurers have a combined overhead & profit rate of 27%! That 22% difference reflected as a loss in every healthcare dollar is more than enough to provide coverage for all the uninsured WITHOUT spending an additional cent. In fact, the President attacked the profit loss by regulating the insurers' 'premium pass-thru' to bring that number to around 20% (80% pass thru). This reduction in the overhead is a large part of why we initially saw a slight decrease in premiums, and are now seeing a slowing in the historical increase in premiums.

The extra costs burdened upon us by the private/for profit model are only part of it - it's not functioning - 40 million are uninsured!

I'm astonished as to how some seem to believe adding a profit layer to a good will decrease costs! :doh

Want to insure everyone for what we're currently spending? Expand MedicAid (or MediCare) for all, while keeping the current provider network in place. It won't be mandatory - it'll be a public option for those that so chose to sign-up & use it as is done now, but w/o income testing. It leaves the private insurers in place for those that believe the much-vaunted private markets will provide a superior solution, and for those that feel so strongly on putting profit into their insurers' pockets - go for it!

Remember, 43% of the country currently enjoys single-payer/healthcare (MediCare, MedicAid, Disability, etc.), and it's functioning marginally well enough - there's no reason the rest of the citizens shouldn't have the opportunity to have the same, rather than the government picking winners & losers.

Then, we would need to work on cost containment and improvements - but that's another subject.

This is not rocket science (it is a battle against special interests).

And to finally address your quoted statement in general: If the private markets could've provided universal healthcare insurance, built the interstate road system, rolled-out the internet, etc. - why didn't they?

Capitalism & private free-markets have been the greatest force of good to bring more men women & children out of poverty, than any other economic system we've found - but there's still some things that government does better, particularly those things which are not cost-effective to provide universally.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

You could raise rates a lot more than that this year and still be well under budget. I don't think you folks have quite appreciated how far below expectations (i.e., those used to present the "price tag" of the ACA when it passed) actual premiums have been.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

The ACA is well below budget at this point. Do you understand numbers?

Click to expand...

Conservative said:

I gave you the actual cost of Medicare which was higher than the year before so tell me where are the savings?

Click to expand...

You really have a passion for this issue and simply cannot get it through your head that you are dealing with predictions and projections. There was no ACA before therefore there was no budget so this is a new expense. You credit a savings from the projections ignoring that since there was no budget before no savings is going to be better than having no cost at all before.

Click to expand...

Greenbeard said:

You could raise rates a lot more than that this year and still be well under budget. I don't think you folks have quite appreciated how far below expectations (i.e., those used to present the "price tag" of the ACA when it passed) actual premiums have been.

Click to expand...