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Thread: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

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    Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Reuters reported:

    Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday ruled out freezing sensitive nuclear work in the country for a long time and said sanctions imposed on it should be lifted as soon it reaches a final deal with major powers, state TV reported.

    The six - Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia and the United States - want Iran to commit to a verifiable halt of at least 10 years on sensitive nuclear development work as part of a landmark atomic deal they aim to reach by June 30.

    Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period | Reuters

    As the deadline for a nuclear agreement approaches, Iran has advanced two positions that preclude a credible and, perhaps even useful, agreement:

    1. It has continued to refuse to allow IAEA inspectors assurances that they would have access to sensitive sites. Such limitations preclude a credible verification regime.
    2. It seeks an early end to restrictions on its nuclear activities.

    In substance, Iran is seeking sanctions relief, as well as international ratification of a path that would allow it to achieve a nuclear breakout. Unless Iran abandons those demands, I don't believe the P5+1 should accept the kind of substantially impaired agreement that would be on the table.

    Finally, Iran still has not resolved all of its outstanding issues with the IAEA. This failure, coupled with the above two demands, further undercuts notions that Iran is seeking only a peaceful nuclear energy program.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Reuters reported:




    Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period | Reuters

    As the deadline for a nuclear agreement approaches, Iran has advanced two positions that preclude a credible and, perhaps even useful, agreement:

    1. It has continued to refuse to allow IAEA inspectors assurances that they would have access to sensitive sites. Such limitations preclude a credible verification regime.
    2. It seeks an early end to restrictions on its nuclear activities.

    In substance, Iran is seeking sanctions relief, as well as international ratification of a path that would allow it to achieve a nuclear breakout. Unless Iran abandons those demands, I don't believe the P5+1 should accept the kind of substantially impaired agreement that would be on the table.

    Finally, Iran still has not resolved all of its outstanding issues with the IAEA. This failure, coupled with the above two demands, further undercuts notions that Iran is seeking only a peaceful nuclear energy program.

    Cmon now DS. The usual detractors will just say he was playing to the base. He don't decide anything. BO has a deal, says its good.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    What do you want to bet that

    A) it would be pretty easy to find a statement from the Administration from a year or so ago that this is completely unacceptable and they won't sign any deal that includes it and

    B) the administration will fold on this and seek to sign a deal that includes it?



    Iran knows that Obama needs this more than they do. They're going to stick it to him, and keep their program.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    [Obama says] the pending deal would shrink Iran’s nuclear program, so that if Iran later “decided to break the deal, kick out all the inspectors, break the seals and go for a bomb, we’d have over a year to respond.” Unfortunately, that claim is false, as can be demonstrated with basic science and math. By my calculations, Iran’s actual breakout time under the deal would be approximately three months — not over a year. Thus, the deal would be unlikely to improve the world’s ability to react to a sudden effort by Iran to build a bomb. Breakout time is determined by three primary factors: the number and type of centrifuges; the enrichment of the starting material; and the amount of enriched uranium required for a nuclear weapon. Mr. Obama seems to make rosy assumptions about all three.

    Most important, in the event of an overt attempt by Iran to build a bomb, Mr. Obama’s argument assumes that Iran would employ only the 5,060 centrifuges that the deal would allow for uranium enrichment, not the roughly 14,000 additional centrifuges that Iran would be permitted to keep mainly for spare parts. Such an assumption is laughable. In a real-world breakout, Iran would race, not crawl, to the bomb. These additional centrifuges would need to be connected, brought up to speed and equilibrated with the already operating ones. But at that point, Iran’s enrichment capacity could exceed three times what Mr. Obama assumes. This flaw could be addressed by amending the deal to require Iran to destroy or export the additional centrifuges, but Iran refuses. Second, since the deal would permit Iran to keep only a small amount of enriched uranium in the gaseous form used in centrifuges, Mr. Obama assumes that a dash for the bomb would start mainly from unenriched uranium, thereby lengthening the breakout time. But the deal would appear to also permit Iran to keep large amounts of enriched uranium in solid form (as opposed to gas), which could be reconverted to gas within weeks, thus providing a substantial head-start to producing weapons-grade uranium.

    Third, Mr. Obama’s argument assumes that Iran would require 59 pounds of weapons-grade uranium to make an atomic bomb. In reality, nuclear weapons can be made from much smaller amounts of uranium (as experts assume North Korea does in its rudimentary arsenal). A 1995 study by the Natural Resources Defense Council concluded that even a “low technical capability” nuclear weapon could produce an explosion with a force approaching that of the Hiroshima bomb — using just 29 pounds of weapons-grade uranium. Based on such realistic assumptions, Iran’s breakout time under the pending deal actually would be around three months, while its current breakout time is a little under two months. Thus, the deal would increase the breakout time by just over a month, too little to matter. Mr. Obama’s main argument for the agreement — extending Iran’s breakout time — turns out to be effectively worthless.....snip~

    Brutal: Nuclear Expert Demolishes Obama's Central Argument for Iran Deal - Guy Benson


    Looks like BO, and his Team got it wrong again.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Come on, anyone really surprised by this?
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    Come on, anyone really surprised by this?
    No....
    32 “Whoever acknowledges me before others, I will also acknowledge before my Father in heaven. 33 But whoever disowns me before others, I will disown before my Father in heaven.
    Matt. 10:32-33

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Enough of the transparent Double Standard

    As long as the selectively meddlesome U.S. & EU tolerate other illegally acquired Nuclear Arsenals in the Region, it is blatantly hypocritical to kvetch & whine about what Iran does.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Quote Originally Posted by B'smith View Post
    Enough of the transparent Double Standard

    As long as the selectively meddlesome U.S. & EU tolerate other illegally acquired Nuclear Arsenals in the Region, it is blatantly hypocritical to kvetch & whine about what Iran does.
    Some countries have proved themselves worthy of extra scrutiny, like for example, being the leading state sponsor of terror in the world. Insisting that they be treated as an ordinary actor when they have shown themselves to be anything but is blatantly silly.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Iran is clearly being irrational here. If they want an end to sanctions, the responsible position is to halt nuclear development.

    Quote Originally Posted by B'smith View Post
    Enough of the transparent Double Standard

    As long as the selectively meddlesome U.S. & EU tolerate other illegally acquired Nuclear Arsenals in the Region, it is blatantly hypocritical to kvetch & whine about what Iran does.
    Which is why the US/EU should take a stance against all nuclear arsenals in the region.
    Social democrat is no longer an accurate description of my views.

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    Re: Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Reuters reported:




    Iran's Khamenei rules out freezing sensitive nuclear work for long period | Reuters

    As the deadline for a nuclear agreement approaches, Iran has advanced two positions that preclude a credible and, perhaps even useful, agreement:

    1. It has continued to refuse to allow IAEA inspectors assurances that they would have access to sensitive sites. Such limitations preclude a credible verification regime.
    2. It seeks an early end to restrictions on its nuclear activities.

    In substance, Iran is seeking sanctions relief, as well as international ratification of a path that would allow it to achieve a nuclear breakout. Unless Iran abandons those demands, I don't believe the P5+1 should accept the kind of substantially impaired agreement that would be on the table.

    Finally, Iran still has not resolved all of its outstanding issues with the IAEA. This failure, coupled with the above two demands, further undercuts notions that Iran is seeking only a peaceful nuclear energy program.
    So, they're still trying to negotiate. They are, however, negotiating from a weak position.

    And, they're not negotiating with Obama. They're negotiating with six powerful nations, no one of which actually needs Iran for anything.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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