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The U.S. Economy Can't Hire Health-Care Workers Fast Enough

donsutherland1

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From Bloomberg.com:

Job openings in the healthcare industry soared in April to a new record high in more than 14 years of data, while hiring barely budged. It's great news for industry professionals who are seeking work or a pay raise...

The 910,000 listings in the healthcare industry almost doubled the 513,000 who were added to payrolls, meaning there were about 1.8 jobs available for every person who was hired.

The U.S. Economy Can't Hire Health-Care Workers Fast Enough - Bloomberg Business

The complete report can be found at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

This data, which runs counter to some of the political narratives related to the health sector, highlights anew the importance of looking at all the variables when trying to assess an industry's future performance. The political/regulatory/tax variable is one aspect that can shape an industry's performance. There are many other variables. When it comes to the health sector, the aging of the population (which is directly related to medical care consumption) is a mega factor.
 
From Bloomberg.com:



The U.S. Economy Can't Hire Health-Care Workers*Fast Enough - Bloomberg Business

The complete report can be found at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

This data, which runs counter to some of the political narratives related to the health sector, highlights anew the importance of looking at all the variables when trying to assess an industry's future performance. The political/regulatory/tax variable is one aspect that can shape an industry's performance. There are many other variables. When it comes to the health sector, the aging of the population (which is directly related to medical care consumption) is a mega factor.

Why would you not expect an industry to expand that produces a good that suddenly is free for all? I don't know, how it will develop, but I would expect an increase in healthcare consumption and higher costs.
 
Why would you not expect an industry to expand that produces a good that suddenly is free for all? I don't know, how it will develop, but I would expect an increase in healthcare consumption and higher costs.

What industry is free for all?
 
Additional data:

Job openings rose 15.7% on a year-on-year basis (April 2014-April 2015). The sectors that saw the fastest growth in openings were: Education (39.4%), Construction (39.1%), and Health Care/Social Assistance (37.7%). The worst-performing sectors were: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-25.6%) and Retail Trade (0.4%).
 
Why would you not expect an industry to expand that produces a good that suddenly is free for all? I don't know, how it will develop, but I would expect an increase in healthcare consumption and higher costs.

Goodness, healthcare is now free for everybody? I admit I didn't know that.
 
Those help wanted ads may be because they are looking for people who will work for less than the person currently holding the position instead of creating new positions.
 
Healthcare professionals have ALWAYS been in demand.

Especially where I live. Houston.
 
For those who are interested, below were the highest employment and wage growth occupations and worst employment and wage change occupations (May 2013-May 2014). 2015 Data is not available.

Wageand_Employment2013_14.jpg


The employment and wage data is from the BLS.
 
What industry is free for all?

When you get things paid for you used to pay for out of your own pocket, they thus become "free goods" in context of the consumption decision, people will tend to buy more. This will tend to be the case as more people get insured and learn new optimizing behavior.
 
Goodness, healthcare is now free for everybody? I admit I didn't know that.

I don't know your insurance policy, but I pay practically the same if my medical costs are 0 or 100.000 dollars. Yes. As you introduce insurance, Medical services move towards being more or less free goods. Why the whole argument for insurance is based on the assumption. General health insurance is supposed to make medical services available to persons that did not get treatment, because it was too expensive for their wallets.
Didn't you realize that? That is the whole point.

So, now they get it for a fixed premium, everything above the premium is free and they start to consume. Where's the surprise?
 
When you get things paid for you used to pay for out of your own pocket, they thus become "free goods" in context of the consumption decision, people will tend to buy more. This will tend to be the case as more people get insured and learn new optimizing behavior.

A large portion of those new to getting insurance are paying for it themselves, and the vast majority of insured people pay for it. There is not free for all insurance. That is just hysterical nonsense.
 
The world bank has U.S. health expenditures increasing as a percentage of GDP from 13.2% in 1995 to 17.1% 2014. The percentage of that which reflects government spending in the healthcare sector was 9.4% in 2012 (under 'Perspectives' change 'Total' to 'Public' here and then look for the United States in the graph and hover your mouse over the bar).

It's driven by demand, not materially affected yet by the slowly forming negative consequences of our rapidly escalating national debt, etc...

However, the present rapid rate of demand will eventually level off and diminish following the decline of the baby boomers and the negative consequences of present U.S. policies will eventually manifest materially impacting sectors that rely heavily on government spending (unless desirable reforms are implemented).

Bottom line: Healthcare is a bubble that you can ride for the next twenty to thirty years. :cheers:
 
US health care is far more costly per capita than other developed nations, we get middling results, and we still don't cover everyone. As long as we keep relying on "for-profit" providers, this won't change.

Fifty hospitals in the United States are charging uninsured consumers more than 10 times the actual cost of patient care, according to research published Monday.

All but one of the facilities are owned by for-profit entities and the largest number of hospitals — 20 — are in Florida. For the most part, researchers said, the hospitals with the highest markups are not in pricey neighborhoods or big cities, where the market might explain the higher prices.
50 hospitals charge uninsured more than 10 times cost of care, study finds - The Washington Post

Ah yes, the "magic of the marketplace."

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Those help wanted ads may be because they are looking for people who will work for less than the person currently holding the position instead of creating new positions.

No, that's not how the law of supply and demand works. They are looking for people because they need people. They aren't hiring what they need because of an inadequate supply of skilled candidates.
 
Those help wanted ads may be because they are looking for people who will work for less than the person currently holding the position instead of creating new positions.

Data for the last 5 years argues against this scenario:

National employment: +3.4%
National increase in the mean wage: +1.7% per year

Health Professions: +9.1%
Increase in the mean wage for health professions: +1.8% per year
* - includes technical support personnel, among others.

Physicians: +13.6%
Increase in the mean wage for physicians: +1.8% per year

There has also been an ongoing long-term trend in which the number of surgeons has been declining. That trend commenced in 2004. It has slowed in recent years, but it likely represents the retirement of Baby Boom surgeons far more than policy changes. Indeed, the rate has slowed over the past 5 years with a slight increase in the past year. The growing demand in surgical procedures driven by the aging of the nation's population coupled with the past decline in the number of surgeons has probably contributed to at least some share of the rapid growth in health care openings. The BLS projects that openings in the surgeons field will grow much faster than the national average over the next 10 years.
 
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A large portion of those new to getting insurance are paying for it themselves, and the vast majority of insured people pay for it. There is not free for all insurance. That is just hysterical nonsense.

What I thought to say was not that the insurance premium was free. What is thereafter free or at least much cheaper than a market price would be, and this is the crucial piece of the argument, is consumption of medical services and hardware. This means that more will be demanded by consumers, than was before the policies kicked in. You should expect an increase in demand, prices and the aggregated cost across the economy.
 

I thought he wanted money for his family after he dies, which sounds more like a lack of life insurance than a problem with his union negotiated health benefits.
 
What I thought to say was not that the insurance premium was free. What is thereafter free or at least much cheaper than a market price would be, and this is the crucial piece of the argument, is consumption of medical services and hardware. This means that more will be demanded by consumers, than was before the policies kicked in. You should expect an increase in demand, prices and the aggregated cost across the economy.

I do not think you understand how insurance works. The premium is to spread out the cost, and so that the big expensive stuff like hospital stays are not all out of pocket, but shared with the others buying insurance. Insurance does not make health care free. Insurance companies profit from selling insurance, as most people spend less on health care than the cost of insurance.
 
I do not think you understand how insurance works. The premium is to spread out the cost, and so that the big expensive stuff like hospital stays are not all out of pocket, but shared with the others buying insurance. Insurance does not make health care free. Insurance companies profit from selling insurance, as most people spend less on health care than the cost of insurance.

What you say is not totally untrue. Where the narrative breaks down is in not looking at the effect paying nothing or much below market pricing has on the consumers' decisions. They consume more.

Think of it this way. The doctor says you should have treatment worth $ 150.000 but can get something less pleasant, a little more painful and with less saticefactory results for $ 15.ooo. Some people will go for the less expensive, if they are not insured.
 
What you say is not totally untrue. Where the narrative breaks down is in not looking at the effect paying nothing or much below market pricing has on the consumers' decisions. They consume more.

Think of it this way. The doctor says you should have treatment worth $ 150.000 but can get something less pleasant, a little more painful and with less saticefactory results for $ 15.ooo. Some people will go for the less expensive, if they are not insured.

People are not paying nothing. They are paying indirectly. This is a huge difference from what you claim. You seem to be totally unaware of how insurance or the health care profession work.
 
No, that's not how the law of supply and demand works. They are looking for people because they need people. They aren't hiring what they need because of an inadequate supply of skilled candidates.

It is how reality works though. Just because someone is hiring does not mean that it is a new position that is not currently filled. I previously worked for a company that would usually give people it was terminating an opportunity to find another job while they looked for their replacement.
 
People are not paying nothing. They are paying indirectly.

This is a vital point.

Maybe a simplified illustration will help. Let's assume Market A has 5,000 people. Annual health-related costs come to $10 million per year (25% is spread equally among the population and 75% falls upon 1% of the population).

If there's no insurance, 1% of the population would wind up paying an average of $150,000 in addition to the $500 costs spread equally among the people. $150,000 would be a catastrophic expense for most people.

Hence, an insurance company is organized. The company charges each person $200 per month for comprehensive coverage or $150 for strictly catastrophic coverage. This is somewhat above the per capita health costs of $167 (and $125 for the catastrophic portion), as a company would incur administrative costs, seek a cushion for fluctuations in health costs, and earn profits.

In the end, the population would be insured against, at a minimum, catastrophic health costs. In no way would this mean that people are "paying nothing." Instead, they would be spreading the costs among one another in exchange for eliminating the risk of facing a catastrophic out-of-pocket expenditure.
 
Why would you not expect an industry to expand that produces a good that suddenly is free for all? I don't know, how it will develop, but I would expect an increase in healthcare consumption and higher costs.

Now we all have free healthcare. That's news to me and my paycheck deductions.
 
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