Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 28

Thread: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

  1. #11
    Sage
    Anthony60's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Northern New Jersey
    Last Seen
    Today @ 04:35 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    5,817

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by SenorXm/Sirius View Post
    Yeah, there's not a sentence I agree with here. And the 80"s?? Trickle down has been proven to be a failure, was then, and still is.

    Anyway all presidents gets too much blame when the economy is bad, and too much credit when the economy is good. In the case of Obama he gets no credit when it's going good, and all the blame when it's sluggish. Whatever.
    Yes, what a disater that booming economy was, lasted almost 20 years. Talk about denying reality! Are you kidding???

    But, I know you need to be able to lie to yourself in order to support the left's agenda. I mean, you really can't truthfully look at the economy that Reagan unleashed and then sit there and say Obama is doing a good job. Or even a mediocre job. I see your dilema.

    I guess you have to decide to either keep believing them, or your own intellect. Good luck!
    "We have met the enemy and they are ours..." -- Oliver Hazard Perry
    "I don't want a piece of you... I want the whole thing!" -- Bob Barker

  2. #12
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    02-01-17 @ 09:45 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,667

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by Tettsuo View Post
    The problem is, there's no honor or culpability in our political system. The doomsayers can make their blanket predictions and when proven wrong, they suffer no ill.
    This issue is a chronic one. The political opposition typically warns of very dark economic scenarios when the opposing party takes control of the White House. One witnessed it when Reagan took office in 1981, Clinton took office in 1993, Bush took office in 2001 (though the slowly mounting housing bubble and related risks were not on the radar of the critics' predictions), and when Obama took office in 2009. Fiscal policy helps shape economic outcomes. Public investment helps shape innovation with long-term economic consequences. But many non-public policy variables also shape macroeconomic performance.

    Unfortunately, when it comes to economic predictions, there is virtually no media scrutiny. Hence, politicians and pundits, many of whom have abysmal records, continue to make on-air predictions with little or no consequence to their reputations or ability to make new public predictions. The result is good analysts are crowded out and public perceptions of are skewed.

  3. #13
    A sinister place...
    OrphanSlug's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Atlanta
    Last Seen
    03-07-17 @ 11:17 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,860

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by Tettsuo View Post
    I agree.

    But, when Conservatives make it a point to dump all economic results on the president... at day one... must also credit that same president when their prediction of doom do not come to pass and the end results are overall positive. In fact, those same people need to praise the president. But, will that happen? Nope.

    The problem is, there's no honor or culpability in our political system. The doomsayers can make their blanket predictions and when proven wrong, they suffer no ill. The same applied to this messageboard. Those that follow blindly can say the most outlandish things, and those that side with them will never point out the error in their statements so long as they tow the line. The line of the past few years is: Obama IS causing the downfall of America. Facts be damned.

    Personally, I just want to make fun of them. But hopefully, the sheeple will wake up and see it for what it is.
    I'm with you. The politics of economics tends to trump economic reality, and we all end up doing this from time to time.

    In a very sad way we see plenty of examples, both left and right, of doomsday economic predictions based on opposition policy. But I will concede that conservative economics tends to be more vocal about "disaster" from Obama's (and Congress') actions. We all recall the Gold predictions based on hyperinflation predictions that did not happen. And we all recall the right wing recession predictions when 2011 Q1 slumped, only to see 2011 Q2 up over 3% and 2011 Q4 at almost 5%. We saw these disaster predictions again when 2014 Q1 was down 2%, only to see 2014 Q2 hit over 4% and 2014 Q3 hit 5%.

    The one thing we have to remember is the business model of political commentary, making a target demographic of followers increasingly scared and or angry at political opposition. Which means most economic disaster calls by political commentary all boil down to opportunism devoid of reality.

    That said, our present economic model has plenty of faults. And I do not agree with plenty of actions Obama and the associated Congresses (112th up to our present 114th) have taken. I see plenty of economic bubbles forming in everything from Student Debt to the overbought Equity Markets. Fed has made some matters worse and I am concerned that present politics has not really helped the matter either. Again, not all or nothing. But present crew up on the hill has caused some headwind and it explains well why our overall recovery period has come with faults. Like, low labor participation rates and disparate unemployment rates by race. Like, high private debt risk taking. Like, running Government Total Debt well above 100% of GDP.

    So I agree that saying "Obama has caused the downfall of America" is partisan uselessness, but that does not mean I will all of a sudden say Obama and crew have done what is best to handle the real economic faults of our present economic model of trade deficits and consumer debt.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

  4. #14
    Sage
    Anthony60's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Northern New Jersey
    Last Seen
    Today @ 04:35 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    5,817

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    For perspective:

    The last 8 quarters of annualized real GDP growth have been:

    2013 Q2 +1.8%
    2013 Q3 +4.5%
    2013 Q4 +3.5%

    2014 Q1 -2.1%
    2014 Q2 +4.6%
    2014 Q3 +5.0%
    2014 Q4 +2.2%

    2015 Q1 -0.7%

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...dp1q15_2nd.pdf

    Average annual growth rate for the past 2 years (2013 Q1 through 2015 Q1): +3.2%
    Growth rate for the past year (2014 Q1 through 2015 Q1): +2.7%

    Overall, the narrative of general economic expansion continues. The pace of growth remains modest to moderate. The Fed's Beige Book to be released on June 3 will provide fresh insight and, I suspect, it will reaffirm the growth narrative.
    I really hope so, since we are a growing country and a positive rate of growth is just a given. As I recall, we've had Winters every year so far, so that is also a given. Negative growth rates are a pretty bad thing, and our overall growth rates have been lackluster at best. And when you throw out the numbers and just take a look at how well people are doing as far as jobs and income, as well as the amount of people that have just given up... well, it's been a Hellish several years.
    "We have met the enemy and they are ours..." -- Oliver Hazard Perry
    "I don't want a piece of you... I want the whole thing!" -- Bob Barker

  5. #15
    Sage
    SenorXm/Sirius's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Northeast US
    Last Seen
    Today @ 05:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    5,734

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    I'm with you. The politics of economics tends to trump economic reality, and we all end up doing this from time to time.

    In a very sad way we see plenty of examples, both left and right, of doomsday economic predictions based on opposition policy. But I will concede that conservative economics tends to be more vocal about "disaster" from Obama's (and Congress') actions. We all recall the Gold predictions based on hyperinflation predictions that did not happen. And we all recall the right wing recession predictions when 2011 Q1 slumped, only to see 2011 Q2 up over 3% and 2011 Q4 at almost 5%. We saw these disaster predictions again when 2014 Q1 was down 2%, only to see 2014 Q2 hit over 4% and 2014 Q3 hit 5%.

    The one thing we have to remember is the business model of political commentary, making a target demographic of followers increasingly scared and or angry at political opposition. Which means most economic disaster calls by political commentary all boil down to opportunism devoid of reality.
    I saw a commercial yesterday with Ron Paul(who I always kind of liked, not everything he stood for, but the man stuck to his guns and I admired that, something no politician does anymore) saying just what you and others here are talking about. Go to his website, watch the free video on how everything is going to collapse, and what you can do, and probably buy(I haven't watched the video) to protect yourself from the impending doom.

    I thought better of Ron Paul, I didn't think he would sink to that level. IDK, they all suck.
    "Big or small, I don't like rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do."
    Raj Koothrappali

  6. #16
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    02-01-17 @ 09:45 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,667

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony60 View Post
    I really hope so, since we are a growing country and a positive rate of growth is just a given. As I recall, we've had Winters every year so far, so that is also a given. Negative growth rates are a pretty bad thing, and our overall growth rates have been lackluster at best. And when you throw out the numbers and just take a look at how well people are doing as far as jobs and income, as well as the amount of people that have just given up... well, it's been a Hellish several years.
    The last two winters have been particularly severe in parts of the U.S. responsible for a lot of economic activity.

  7. #17
    A sinister place...
    OrphanSlug's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Atlanta
    Last Seen
    03-07-17 @ 11:17 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,860

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by SenorXm/Sirius View Post
    I saw a commercial yesterday with Ron Paul(who I always kind of liked, not everything he stood for, but the man stuck to his guns and I admired that, something no politician does anymore) saying just what you and others here are talking about. Go to his website, watch the free video on how everything is going to collapse, and what you can do, and probably buy(I haven't watched the video) to protect yourself from the impending doom.

    I thought better of Ron Paul, I didn't think he would sink to that level. IDK, they all suck.
    Ron Paul has a slightly different take on monetary implications of Fiat Money systems, than the typical Conservative rhetoric you hear on Obama's economic policy.

    Back in 2008 and well into 2010 we all recall everyone from Goldline International to APMEX advertise mostly on right wing TV and radio (FoxNews and other radio networks,) mostly talking about buying Gold as a hedge against at best inflation and at worse instilling fears of hyperinflation. It complemented well the rhetoric then on those commentary productions about left wing economics "destroying the nation" and our economy. It quickly turned into a real instance of predatory activity. Of course economic reality of the situation then and now told us the conditions for hyperinflation to occur did not really exist. GDP rose just enough to handle what the Fed was doing with reserves held as deposits, currency in circulation did not go up near enough to trigger inflation into hyperinflation territory.

    Ron Paul on the other hand is more speaking about Fed existence to date, and the continual devaluation of the dollar to handle Fed policy in concert with self serving fiscal policy. Some, I repeat some, of what he is saying makes sense but it is easy to see that get derailed when he gets too close to the typical Conservative rhetoric on using Gold to hedge against those policies. Over the very long term Ron Paul has been right just as much as he has been wrong about economics. The "impending doom" talk is something that is of question as to when it could occur as he describes. Our reality is there is only so far you can push Fiat Money systems in a climate of currency competition for investor sentiment. Liberals generally do not like to hear that suggesting there is no investor reality to Government/Fed actions.

    But, no matter where you fall we can see examples both left and right appealing to the politics of the issue over the economic results. We know that is basically true as no matter who is in charge our economic model of the past 30-40 years (in some cases longer) is prone to the very bubble and pop economics most economists warn us about. A clear sign of "left wing" and "right wing" politics trumping the reality of the economic model they have clearly influenced.

    Back to Ron Paul. There is plenty of examples I can agree with him on, then other times he is well deserving of epic facepalm memes.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

  8. #18
    Professor
    Tettsuo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn, NY
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 06:23 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    2,261

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    I'm with you. The politics of economics tends to trump economic reality, and we all end up doing this from time to time.

    In a very sad way we see plenty of examples, both left and right, of doomsday economic predictions based on opposition policy. But I will concede that conservative economics tends to be more vocal about "disaster" from Obama's (and Congress') actions. We all recall the Gold predictions based on hyperinflation predictions that did not happen. And we all recall the right wing recession predictions when 2011 Q1 slumped, only to see 2011 Q2 up over 3% and 2011 Q4 at almost 5%. We saw these disaster predictions again when 2014 Q1 was down 2%, only to see 2014 Q2 hit over 4% and 2014 Q3 hit 5%.

    The one thing we have to remember is the business model of political commentary, making a target demographic of followers increasingly scared and or angry at political opposition. Which means most economic disaster calls by political commentary all boil down to opportunism devoid of reality.

    That said, our present economic model has plenty of faults. And I do not agree with plenty of actions Obama and the associated Congresses (112th up to our present 114th) have taken. I see plenty of economic bubbles forming in everything from Student Debt to the overbought Equity Markets. Fed has made some matters worse and I am concerned that present politics has not really helped the matter either. Again, not all or nothing. But present crew up on the hill has caused some headwind and it explains well why our overall recovery period has come with faults. Like, low labor participation rates and disparate unemployment rates by race. Like, high private debt risk taking. Like, running Government Total Debt well above 100% of GDP.

    So I agree that saying "Obama has caused the downfall of America" is partisan uselessness, but that does not mean I will all of a sudden say Obama and crew have done what is best to handle the real economic faults of our present economic model of trade deficits and consumer debt.
    Thank you for your thoughtful response, even though we're on opposite sides of the aisle.

    All I'm after is for Conservatives to concede that Obama isn't the anti-Christ for business, and has not been the harbinger for American apocalypse.

    Is the economy perfect? Hell no. But, the results of Obama's economy over the course of his tenure has been positive overall.
    A man without fear is a fool, a man that succumbs to his fear is a coward and a brave man acknowledges fear yet presses on.
    http://soulinblackandwhite.blogspot.com/

  9. #19
    Sage
    SenorXm/Sirius's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Northeast US
    Last Seen
    Today @ 05:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    5,734

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    Ron Paul has a slightly different take on monetary implications of Fiat Money systems, than the typical Conservative rhetoric you hear on Obama's economic policy.

    Back in 2008 and well into 2010 we all recall everyone from Goldline International to APMEX advertise mostly on right wing TV and radio (FoxNews and other radio networks,) mostly talking about buying Gold as a hedge against at best inflation and at worse instilling fears of hyperinflation. It complemented well the rhetoric then on those commentary productions about left wing economics "destroying the nation" and our economy. It quickly turned into a real instance of predatory activity. Of course economic reality of the situation then and now told us the conditions for hyperinflation to occur did not really exist. GDP rose just enough to handle what the Fed was doing with reserves held as deposits, currency in circulation did not go up near enough to trigger inflation into hyperinflation territory.

    Ron Paul on the other hand is more speaking about Fed existence to date, and the continual devaluation of the dollar to handle Fed policy in concert with self serving fiscal policy. Some, I repeat some, of what he is saying makes sense but it is easy to see that get derailed when he gets too close to the typical Conservative rhetoric on using Gold to hedge against those policies. Over the very long term Ron Paul has been right just as much as he has been wrong about economics. The "impending doom" talk is something that is of question as to when it could occur as he describes. Our reality is there is only so far you can push Fiat Money systems in a climate of currency competition for investor sentiment. Liberals generally do not like to hear that suggesting there is no investor reality to Government/Fed actions.

    But, no matter where you fall we can see examples both left and right appealing to the politics of the issue over the economic results. We know that is basically true as no matter who is in charge our economic model of the past 30-40 years (in some cases longer) is prone to the very bubble and pop economics most economists warn us about. A clear sign of "left wing" and "right wing" politics trumping the reality of the economic model they have clearly influenced.

    Back to Ron Paul. There is plenty of examples I can agree with him on, then other times he is well deserving of epic facepalm memes.
    Thank you. Damn good post.
    "Big or small, I don't like rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do."
    Raj Koothrappali

  10. #20
    Sage
    Fenton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Last Seen
    Today @ 02:30 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    22,616

    Re: Economy Shrank in First Quarter as U.S. Trade Deficit Surged

    Quote Originally Posted by SenorXm/Sirius View Post
    Yeah, there's not a sentence I agree with here. And the 80"s?? Trickle down has been proven to be a failure, was then, and still is.

    Anyway all presidents gets too much blame when the economy is bad, and too much credit when the economy is good. In the case of Obama he gets no credit when it's going good, and all the blame when it's sluggish. Whatever.
    First, " trickle down " is just a simplistic politicized description of Supply Side economics and who exactly has " proven " that to be a failure " ??

    MSNBC ? Paul Krugman ? You ? Lol.

    And yes, Obama gets the blame. He signed ObamaCare and he and the Democrat party are responsible for the multiple job killing tax increases and regulations that are contained in that law.

    He gets the blame for all of his partisan rhetoric about making the " Rich pay their fair share " and his EPA mandates that would increase energy cost on the poor and middle class.

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •