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Thread: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

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    The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Very interesting tidbit...

    One of the major sticking points appears to be access to military sites amid lingering concerns about the possible military dimensions of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Tehran has always denied seeking to develop a nuclear bomb, saying its nuclear energy program is for civilian purposes only. But French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned on Wednesday that France would oppose a final nuclear accord unless it allowed inspections of military sites. An agreement "will not be accepted by France if it is not clear that verifications can be made at all Iranian facilities, including military sites," Fabius told parliament.
    France has it right. In every nation with a nuclear weapons program, HEU, warheads, and ballistic missile components are under the physical control of the military. Excluding suspect Iranian military sites from IAEA inspections renders any verification of Iranian compliance with the NPT and a P5+1 Accord impossible.

    From what I understand, Kerry's chief nuclear negotiator with Iran - Wendy Sherman - will leave her post on the June 30 deadline. Apparently, she's had enough of dealing with the Iranians.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    I suspect failure is right around the corner, as it should be. There is too much that Iran will not agree to.
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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Very interesting tidbit...



    France has it right. In every nation with a nuclear weapons program, HEU, warheads, and ballistic missile components are under the physical control of the military. Excluding suspect Iranian military sites from IAEA inspections renders any verification of Iranian compliance with the NPT and a P5+1 Accord impossible.

    From what I understand, Kerry's chief nuclear negotiator with Iran - Wendy Sherman - will leave her post on the June 30 deadline. Apparently, she's had enough of dealing with the Iranians.
    Any idea how the P5+1 process works in terms of consensus? IOW can Frances no vote derail any deal?
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Any idea how the P5+1 process works in terms of consensus? IOW can Frances no vote derail any deal?
    The P5+1 internal process is not a matter of public record. However, public statements by Kerry and his allied opposites indicate that P5+1 consensus is the overarching internal goal. The absence of a consensus would strongly suggest that a specific formulation is considered gravely flawed. In addition, any of the P5 nations could veto a proposed Iranian nuclear deal placed before the UNSC.

    When the initial framework deal was announced, the US/Iran/French "fact sheets" did not align. The French fact sheet specifically indicated that the IAEA will be able to visit any suspect site in Iran ... the so-called “anywhere, anytime” access provision. Rightly so IMO, the French consider this critical aspect non-negotiable.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    The P5+1 internal process is not a matter of public record. However, public statements by Kerry and his allied opposites indicate that P5+1 consensus is the overarching internal goal. The absence of a consensus would strongly suggest that a specific formulation is considered gravely flawed. In addition, any of the P5 nations could veto a proposed Iranian nuclear deal placed before the UNSC.

    When the initial framework deal was announced, the US/Iran/French "fact sheets" did not align. The French fact sheet specifically indicated that the IAEA will be able to visit any suspect site in Iran ... the so-called “anywhere, anytime” access provision. Rightly so IMO, the French consider this critical aspect non-negotiable.
    My guess is that there will be a deal. It will be ambiguous enough that both sides will claim victory. Sanctions will be lifted, companies will start the feeding frenzy of getting the Iranian economy back on its feet. Inspections will NOT be allowed at military sites or new sites built by Iran. Sanctions will NOT snapback as Obama promised. The next president will say this did not happen on my watch. Sounds like the North Korea playbook. Perhaps with another Clinton in the White House.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    My guess is that there will be a deal. It will be ambiguous enough that both sides will claim victory. Sanctions will be lifted, companies will start the feeding frenzy of getting the Iranian economy back on its feet. Inspections will NOT be allowed at military sites or new sites built by Iran. Sanctions will NOT snapback as Obama promised.
    If the above transpires, then there will be nuclear proliferation in the Sunni Arab Middle East. It is as simple as that.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    If the above transpires, then there will be nuclear proliferation in the Sunni Arab Middle East. It is as simple as that.
    I agree. Not sure that the P5+1 cares.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    My guess is that there will be a deal. It will be ambiguous enough that both sides will claim victory. Sanctions will be lifted, companies will start the feeding frenzy of getting the Iranian economy back on its feet. Inspections will NOT be allowed at military sites or new sites built by Iran. Sanctions will NOT snapback as Obama promised. The next president will say this did not happen on my watch. Sounds like the North Korea playbook. Perhaps with another Clinton in the White House.
    That would be a very disappointing result.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    I suspect failure is right around the corner, as it should be. There is too much that Iran will not agree to.
    That cannot surprise anyone except maybe Obama.

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    Re: The US-Iran nuclear talks are about to shift into high gear

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    The P5+1 internal process is not a matter of public record. However, public statements by Kerry and his allied opposites indicate that P5+1 consensus is the overarching internal goal. The absence of a consensus would strongly suggest that a specific formulation is considered gravely flawed. In addition, any of the P5 nations could veto a proposed Iranian nuclear deal placed before the UNSC.

    When the initial framework deal was announced, the US/Iran/French "fact sheets" did not align. The French fact sheet specifically indicated that the IAEA will be able to visit any suspect site in Iran ... the so-called “anywhere, anytime” access provision. Rightly so IMO, the French consider this critical aspect non-negotiable.
    So the question is whether Frances reservations are strong enough to force their veto at the UN. Wow, I remember a time when France not going along with the US earned them quite a bit of disdain. French fries became freedom fries, and the Dixie Chicks were roasted for acknowledging that France had a point with their opposition to Bush's designs on Iraq.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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