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Thread: Russia is making moves in Iraq

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    This sounds like another arms transfer to ISIS, with the Iraqis taking brief possession until they drop them and run away.

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Can we agree that the Middle East is where empires go to die?
    I certainly wouldn't agree to that.

    The Ottoman Turkish Empire held sway over much of the Middle East for over 600 years (~1300 - 1920s).

    They were succeed by the British, French, and Italians following the First World War.

    Those European nations maintained their territories in the ME until the end of the Second World War or (in some cases) until the mid 1960s.

    But those European empires didn't "die" in the Middle East.

    That time period saw a proliferation of nationalist movements all over the globe compounded by changes at home.

    For instance, the British lost their colonies in the ME during this time, but they also lost their colonies in Africa and Southeast Asia as well.

    It wasn't that the Middle East killed those empires as that the concept of empire became economically and politically untenable.

    European nations were still recovering from the physical devastation of WWII, repaying massive loans to American banks, rebuilding their economies, and fighting among themselves politically as postwar alliances were forged. They were also dealing with a citizenry that was tired of war and a little bit incredulous about heading off in to the colonies to put down Middle Eastern/African/Asia rebellions against foreign European domination after having just come through the bloodiest war in history in order to save Europe from foreign domination.

    The concept of a "graveyard of empires" is really a misnomer.

    No empire has ever actually died as a result of colonialist ambitions.

    Whether we talk about the Macedonian Empire in the 300s, or the European empires of the 19th and early 20th centuries, or the Soviet Union's and United States' imperial ambitions (such as they were/are and to the degree that they can realistically be called empires) none of them came to a screeching halt because they got involved in the Middle East.

    At times they were bloodied, at times embarrassed, at times they overextended themselves, at times underestimated the indigenous peoples, and all eventually had to let go of their colonial claims, but none ended as a result of being involved there, and nothing happened in the Middle East that didn't also happen in Africa, Asia, India, the Americas, or even in Europe itself.

    So, no, we don't agree that the Middle East is where empires go to die.
    “Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,
    For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
    And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
    And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by soot View Post
    I certainly wouldn't agree to that.

    The Ottoman Turkish Empire held sway over much of the Middle East for over 600 years (~1300 - 1920s).

    They were succeed by the British, French, and Italians following the First World War.

    Those European nations maintained their territories in the ME until the end of the Second World War or (in some cases) until the mid 1960s.

    But those European empires didn't "die" in the Middle East.

    That time period saw a proliferation of nationalist movements all over the globe compounded by changes at home.

    For instance, the British lost their colonies in the ME during this time, but they also lost their colonies in Africa and Southeast Asia as well.

    It wasn't that the Middle East killed those empires as that the concept of empire became economically and politically untenable.

    European nations were still recovering from the physical devastation of WWII, repaying massive loans to American banks, rebuilding their economies, and fighting among themselves politically as postwar alliances were forged. They were also dealing with a citizenry that was tired of war and a little bit incredulous about heading off in to the colonies to put down Middle Eastern/African/Asia rebellions against foreign European domination after having just come through the bloodiest war in history in order to save Europe from foreign domination.

    The concept of a "graveyard of empires" is really a misnomer.

    No empire has ever actually died as a result of colonialist ambitions.

    Whether we talk about the Macedonian Empire in the 300s, or the European empires of the 19th and early 20th centuries, or the Soviet Union's and United States' imperial ambitions (such as they were/are and to the degree that they can realistically be called empires) none of them came to a screeching halt because they got involved in the Middle East.

    At times they were bloodied, at times embarrassed, at times they overextended themselves, at times underestimated the indigenous peoples, and all eventually had to let go of their colonial claims, but none ended as a result of being involved there, and nothing happened in the Middle East that didn't also happen in Africa, Asia, India, the Americas, or even in Europe itself.

    So, no, we don't agree that the Middle East is where empires go to die.
    Well I should have been more specific with Afghanistan, better?
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by chromium View Post
    A proxy war would imply some power is siding with ISIS.
    Why would that be so?

    The fact that I have a proxy doesn't necessitate your having (or needing/wanting/being able to find) a proxy.

    We (the United States) can find some dupe to serve as our proxy while our "enemy" stands on his own two feet (such as they are).

    As to your favored goal, i think this is fantasy...
    As do I. I said that it's what I'd like to see happen, and what I think would be best for America. I have no expectation at all that we'll see it happen.

    We could easily have developed such technology by now, and other countries are doing so, but how exactly will you force all new cars to run on this new fuel for instance? How will you force gas stations to convert to it?
    Whether we could have or couldn't have is besides the point. We haven't. I'm not going to wail and gnash my teeth over it or indulge in some crybaby ritual of blaming "the man".

    The will had never really been there in the past.

    Government didn't have the will, industry didn't have the will, and the frankly the American people didn't have the will.

    For a number of reasons we're in the process of finding the will.

    I don't think an alternative to fossil fuel on a large scale is right around the corner but it's definitely on the horizon.

    We can't "be done" with the ME either in that scenario, since "sucking it dry" would require a continuous presence, and other nations would also take this as permission to fight over the same resources.
    You've touched on this misinterpretation of what I said several times throughout your comments but I figured I'd address them all in one lump sum.

    What I said was:

    Quote Originally Posted by soot
    If it were up to me we'd cut regulations, punch holes all over this country and in the Gulf, suck it dry of oil...
    I can see how maybe I wasn't clear enough.

    I'm talking about drilling in our own country and in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Maybe when I said Gulf you thought I meant Persian Gulf.

    I'm not talking about "blatant theft went of a sovereign country's resources".

    I'm talking about taking full advantage of our own resources.
    “Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,
    For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
    And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
    And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

  5. #45
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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by soot View Post
    I completely agree.

    I'm not necessarily committed to any particular course of action.

    My concern, such as it is, is that Iraq be able to take care of what needs to be done in iraq.
    Putin is nothing if not an opportunist. He sees that the Iraqi army is basically non existent. He also has ties with Iran as a proxy to go in and clean up - problem is, Iran are shia and ISIS is sunni. It's not going to go over well, so how best to grab Iraq as a puppet and not over commit, exacerbating the sunni / shia conflict into full civil war. Russia wants the oil, they want control through Iran. Russia already has Assad and the mullahs in their pocket but the sunni/shia problem is mucking up their plans. They also don't want to go in themselves and clean up - they learned their lesson there. Best case is sunni go with ISIS and their weak caliphate, Shia keeps control of the south and Baghdad and Russia get's the oil exports without having to get directly involved. Iran gets control of half of Syria, half of Iraq and continues to hold Yemen to expand their ME power base which will solidify once they have nukes on their short and medium range missiles. No one can significantly challenge them after that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    if Russia wants that war, let them go for it.
    They'll sit on the sideline as a supplier and cheerleader doing this by proxy. They don't want to play middle man in shia/sunni conflicts. The cost benefit analysis isn't high enough for direct intervention.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicci View Post
    The power vacuum was during an attempt to fix the problem of wrong power in wrong hands to begin with. We let the British decide who should own what after the war and we are still paying for that mistake. They thought they could "lord" over the countries like they used to do in the 1500s~
    However, we made mistakes twice which we should have learned - first, going into Iraq in the first place while at the time seemed like the right thing - was very wrong. Then leaving after Iraq was fairly settled down only to see it go into full on chaos again with very little dedication to a SoFA and a President who wanted the check mark on one of his campaign promises before he leaves office got us here. The best thing that could happen is contain ISIS, keep them killing each other in Syria and Iraq and maybe over the next 20 years it'll settle down and new borders can be drawn.
    “I think if Thomas Jefferson were looking down, the author of the Bill of Rights, on what’s being proposed here, he’d agree with it. He would agree that the First Amendment cannot be absolute.” - Chuck Schumer (D). Yet, Madison and Mason wrote the Bill of Rights, according to Sheila Jackson Lee, 400 years ago. Yup, it's a fact.


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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Islamic extremists which coalesced in Iraq back in 2006 (ISI) were precisely the lot that guys like Hussein, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Assad kept by way of containment, far better then the us could ever do, as evidenced by the chaos throughout the region at present.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Well I should have been more specific with Afghanistan, better?
    No.

    Same thing, and why I brought Macedonia and the Soviet Union in to it.

    No empire ever died after fighting in Afghanistan because they fought in Afghanistan.

    While Alexander, the British, and the Soviets all fought through or in Afghanistan none came crumbling down as a result.

    Alexander the Great fought through (the area that is today's) Afghanistan in 330 BCE during his war with the Achaemenid Persians. He never tried to "conquer Afghanistan", in large part because what we know as Afghanistan today didn't exist in 330 BCE. He marched through, fought a few skirmishes there, and moved on continuing his war of imperial acquisition for nearly another decade. When his empire fell it fell because he'd failed to secure a stable succession upon his death. Consequently the empire fractured among his subordinate commanders, all of whom thought that they should have been his successors. Ptolemy took the area that is (more or less) modern day Egypt, Seleucus took what had been the territory of the Achaemenid Empire, which became the Seleucid Empire, and so on. Marching and fighting in Afghanistan had nothing to do with it.

    The collapse of the British Empire was largely a consequence of the things I've already mentioned, World War II, and so on. The British invaded Afghanistan in 1838–1842, 1878–1880, and in 1919. The British Empire didn't fall until the 1960s. If you can figure out some direct correlation between Afghanistan and the death of the British Empire I'd love to hear it.

    The situation with the Soviet Union is a lot more complex but, again, the war in Afghanistan was not the primary cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union, though it did contribute. You also need to look at things like ethnic fragmentation along the lines of the non-Slavic peoples within the empire, the USSR's excessive focus on military spending unrelated directly to the war in Afghanistan (things like nuclear weapons and the build up of the armor necessary to fight a conventional war in Europe), the lack of economic incentives that resulted from socialism and the state-planned economy, the ideological crisis in Eastern Europe, Glasnost, and Perestroika. Again, the quagmire in Afghanistan contributed, but it wasn't the "nail in the USSR's coffin". The Soviet Union would have collapsed with or without a war in Afghanistan. Maybe the war there hastened the end, and in a legal sense would certainly be considered a consequent cause of the collapse, it was only one factor and not the most significant by a long shot.
    “Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,
    For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
    And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
    And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    Putin is nothing if not an opportunist. He sees that the Iraqi army is basically non existent. He also has ties with Iran as a proxy to go in and clean up - problem is, Iran are shia and ISIS is sunni. It's not going to go over well, so how best to grab Iraq as a puppet and not over commit, exacerbating the sunni / shia conflict into full civil war. Russia wants the oil, they want control through Iran. Russia already has Assad and the mullahs in their pocket but the sunni/shia problem is mucking up their plans. They also don't want to go in themselves and clean up - they learned their lesson there. Best case is sunni go with ISIS and their weak caliphate, Shia keeps control of the south and Baghdad and Russia get's the oil exports without having to get directly involved. Iran gets control of half of Syria, half of Iraq and continues to hold Yemen to expand their ME power base which will solidify once they have nukes on their short and medium range missiles. No one can significantly challenge them after that.
    Well prognosticated.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see something very much like that happen.
    “Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,
    For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
    And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
    And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by RDS View Post
    Kinda strange for Iraq to seek help from Russia while coalition air strikes are on-going.
    "Any port in the storm," I assume.

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    Re: Russia is making moves in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by soot View Post
    Well prognosticated.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see something very much like that happen.
    Too bad the US has difficulty with foresight.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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