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Thread: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by eohrnberger View Post
    Why don't we make the definition of a 'good' economy in terms of people who want to work full time having a full time job?

    If we ever get back to the point where the vast majority of people who want a full time job have a full time job, then I'd call the economy strong. Last I recall we had that situation in the late 90's.
    then you can't use it for political distortions.

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    I'll give President Obama credit for the unemployment numbers as soon as

    A) People on the left give President Bush credit for keeping the U.S. safe from large scale terrorist attacks for the last 14 years.

    B) People on the left give President Bush credit for the solid economic performance of the U.S. for the first six years of his administration.

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by WCH View Post
    Then there's this....
    "This" is, in its own ways, a highly misleading way to regard unemployment stats.

    If you're going to take U6 unemployment as your measure, it is deceptive to start using that number in 2008. We can go back to 1994:



    What the author labels as an "anemic recovery" is also 5 years of steady reductions in the unemployment rate, from a level far more severe than any recession in recent history.

    He also adds in around 7 million people, apparently because he believes that LFPR ought to be at 66%. That seems a bit odd.

    When we're looking at labor force participation rates, we see that LFPR started dropping in 2000, long before the recent recession. He fails to recognize that LFPR is dropping for structural reasons, rather than cyclical ones.




    We also see something very curious when we split up LFPR by gender:



    Men have been leaving the workforce, and women have been joining the workforce, for decades. Women basically started leaving the workforce around 2000.

    And why are people out of the workforce? We aren't sure, but it is likely a combination of several factors:
    People are starting to retire
    More people are going to college than ever before
    More parents are staying at home, as it costs more to pay for day care than what their work provides
    And yes, some people are unable to find work

    And of course, LFPR leveled off in early 2014. It's too early know if that's a trend.

    Anyway. 3 of these are structural, 1 is cyclical. Thus, presuming that LFPR ought to be at near-peak levels, merely because that's where it was at the start of the recession, doesn't make sense.


    Last but certainly not least, U3 / U6 and LFPR rates are only part of the picture. As usual, I recommend Yellen's dashboard for a more complete idea of the health of employment in the US:
    Yellen's Dashboard

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayton3 View Post
    I'll give President Obama credit for the unemployment numbers as soon as

    A) People on the left give President Bush credit for keeping the U.S. safe from large scale terrorist attacks for the last 14 years.

    B) People on the left give President Bush credit for the solid economic performance of the U.S. for the first six years of his administration.
    I see that your ability to accept reality depends on whether people accept your opinion. About the only real thing you can harp on Obama with respect to economic policy is how he caved on spending cuts via the sequester.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos View Post
    Who in this country would think that unemployment dropping is bad news?
    Easy....Republicans. The more unemployed....the more people are willing to work for peanuts.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    confidence that Obama can't do anymore damage than already done and the confidence that he has shot down any other liberals chance of becoming president.
    Obama's poll number overall suck and still suck.

    RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval
    Did you really want to go there?

    RealClearPolitics - Congressional Job Approval

    And as to what President Obama has done to improve the economy - he's held the Republicans at-bay, fighting them tooth & nail, using every tool at his disposal, even using executive action & pushing to the edges of constitutional limits.

    In 2009 the American people & the world experienced first-hand the catastrophic results of Republican economic policy. This voter will do his best to see we are never subject to that nightmare again.

    Why would anyone want to return to Republican economic reign?
    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

    The 10 Commandments of Logic - (Courtesy of Abbazorkzog Blog)

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    "This" is, in its own ways, a highly misleading way to regard unemployment stats.

    If you're going to take U6 unemployment as your measure, it is deceptive to start using that number in 2008. We can go back to 1994:



    What the author labels as an "anemic recovery" is also 5 years of steady reductions in the unemployment rate, from a level far more severe than any recession in recent history.

    He also adds in around 7 million people, apparently because he believes that LFPR ought to be at 66%. That seems a bit odd.

    When we're looking at labor force participation rates, we see that LFPR started dropping in 2000, long before the recent recession. He fails to recognize that LFPR is dropping for structural reasons, rather than cyclical ones.




    We also see something very curious when we split up LFPR by gender:



    Men have been leaving the workforce, and women have been joining the workforce, for decades. Women basically started leaving the workforce around 2000.

    And why are people out of the workforce? We aren't sure, but it is likely a combination of several factors:
    People are starting to retire
    More people are going to college than ever before
    More parents are staying at home, as it costs more to pay for day care than what their work provides
    And yes, some people are unable to find work

    And of course, LFPR leveled off in early 2014. It's too early know if that's a trend.

    Anyway. 3 of these are structural, 1 is cyclical. Thus, presuming that LFPR ought to be at near-peak levels, merely because that's where it was at the start of the recession, doesn't make sense.


    Last but certainly not least, U3 / U6 and LFPR rates are only part of the picture. As usual, I recommend Yellen's dashboard for a more complete idea of the health of employment in the US:
    Yellen's Dashboard
    With years of low interest rates, Trillions in new debt, unprecedented Monetary Stimulus and now low energy prices we're still struggling to maintain 2 percent GDP growth and apparently there's almost NO growth according to the last GDP #s.

    Homeowner-ship rates are at a 20 year low and have dropped every year since 2008 and thats WITH years of record low interest rates.

    Corporations are hoarding Trillions and using large percentages of their profits to buy back shares and Banks are chosing to earn nothing on Trillions of dollars in excess reserves instead of investing it back into the economy.

    Prior to 2008 Banks never let excess liquidity sit around earning nothing. It was pushed out into the economy where it could earn profits and create new jobs.

    Investors would rather speculate on a Equities market propped up with QE and ZIRP or invest in over seas markets rather than risk thier principle by investing it in the American economy.

    Wealth disparity is growing while median household income levels have yet to catch up to 2007 levels and entitlement spending is through roof.

    So where's the " recovery " ?

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    With years of low interest rates, Trillions in new debt, unprecedented Monetary Stimulus and now low energy prices we're still struggling to maintain 2 percent GDP growth and apparently there's almost NO growth according to the last GDP #s.

    Homeowner-ship rates are at a 20 year low and have dropped every year since 2008 and thats WITH years of record low interest rates.

    Corporations are hoarding Trillions and using large percentages of their profits to buy back shares and Banks are chosing to earn nothing on Trillions of dollars in excess reserves instead of investing it back into the economy.

    Prior to 2008 Banks never let excess liquidity sit around earning nothing. It was pushed out into the economy where it could earn profits and create new jobs.

    Investors would rather speculate on a Equities market propped up with QE and ZIRP or invest in over seas markets rather than risk thier principle by investing it in the American economy.

    Wealth disparity is growing while median household income levels have yet to catch up to 2007 levels and entitlement spending is through roof.

    So where's the " recovery " ?
    This is your standard reply to anyone who provides valid data analysis to support the point that the U.S. economy is the global beacon of light. Normative rantings that lack positive support will continue to fail.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayton3 View Post
    I'll give President Obama credit for the unemployment numbers as soon as

    A) People on the left give President Bush credit for keeping the U.S. safe from large scale terrorist attacks for the last 14 years.

    B) People on the left give President Bush credit for the solid economic performance of the U.S. for the first six years of his administration.
    Have you considered not bartering, but giving credit where credit's due?
    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

    The 10 Commandments of Logic - (Courtesy of Abbazorkzog Blog)

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    re: U.S. Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2008[W:489, 497]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    He refused to embrace Republican economic policies that would see to reducing government spending in the wake of a once in a generation financial crisis. If he were to have followed that path, the U.S. economy would have undoubtedly fallen into a double dip.
    So you can't list a single Obama policy that led to the drop in unemployment either.
    Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. ~W.C. Fields

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