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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Like I said so what . Our satellite records only go back to 1979 (yes even NASA's) and are therefore of little consequence in the determination of anything. The ice core records show polar temperatures naturally wax and wane over the centuries with today being nothing special in great scheme of things

    Ice Cores
    Satellite records only go back to 1979...but the efforts to traverse the Northwest Passage have been going on since the 1600's. That, sir, is why this is a big deal.

    And when it comes to polar temperatures waxing and waning, the REASONS why they wax and wane are in every instance identifiable - great meteor strikes, supervolcano eruptions, and so forth...but today, we have no such identifiable cause...except for the gigatonnes of CO2 that we pump into the air every year. One can crap in one's crib for only so long before that crib becomes very stinky indeed.
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    Go on then, I'll bite.

    How does a stopped clock not show the correct time twice a day? Assuming its a mechanical one with hour and minute hands.

    where in the venn space of possible clocks do stopped clocks and broken clocks reside?

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    Satellite records only go back to 1979...but the efforts to traverse the Northwest Passage have been going on since the 1600's. That, sir, is why this is a big deal.
    No it isn't . The little ice age going on back then was doubtless the primary reason we couldn't. I don't doubt there have been many times before that when the channel would have been clear too

    And when it comes to polar temperatures waxing and waning, the REASONS why they wax and wane are in every instance identifiable - great meteor strikes, supervolcano eruptions, and so forth...but today, we have no such identifiable cause...except for the gigatonnes of CO2 that we pump into the air every year. One can crap in one's crib for only so long before that crib becomes very stinky indeed.
    Absolute nonsense. We know nothing of the sort
    Last edited by flogger; 04-28-15 at 02:17 PM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    Of course! That's why the arctic ice cap is melting to the point that beginning in 2013, ships could start sailing through there for the first time in human history.
    Ok, tell me how a wealth redistribution scheme, ie; Carbon Credits will stop that....
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    Of course! That's why the arctic ice cap is melting to the point that beginning in 2013, ships could start sailing through there for the first time in human history.
    Like I've always said, thank goodness for a new balmy climate.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    No it isn't . The little ice age going on back then was doubtless the primary reason we couldn't. I don't doubt there have been many times before that when the channel would have been clear too
    And why did we have the 'little ice age'?


    Absolute nonsense. We know nothing of the sort
    Perhaps reading a bit of history and doing some objective research would do you some good.
    To do evil, a human being must first of all believe that what hes doing is good" - Solzhenitsyn

    "...with the terrorists, you have to take out their families." - Donald Trump

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Ok, tell me how a wealth redistribution scheme, ie; Carbon Credits will stop that....
    Look it up for yourself - do your OWN research.

    And FYI, thinking for myself instead of automatically accepting what I was getting from Republican politicians and their kingmakers like Rush Limbaugh and the Religious Right was what started me down the path away from being a strong conservative to being the strong liberal I am today.
    To do evil, a human being must first of all believe that what hes doing is good" - Solzhenitsyn

    "...with the terrorists, you have to take out their families." - Donald Trump

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    Good to see you back Mithros.

    At what point do you come to the conclusion that the upper half of the predictions are out?

    Is another 5 years of not warming enough? Do you need 10 or 15 or what?
    I think the Duke study argues fairly convincingly that we should throw the upper bounds out now.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    And why did we have the 'little ice age'?
    Natural variation just like so many of the warming/cooling phases. Many have alluded to the Maunder minumum but in reality we can only guess

    Perhaps reading a bit of history and doing some objective research would do you some good.
    It will be pretty obvious to any impartial observer based on our respective input that I know considerably more about this subject than you do

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Yes, probably too simple to be of much use.


    Then why in the world would your approach be to fit a straight line equation with some random variation "overlayed on top"?


    I see, so your idea of statistically significant is not whether or not the model predicts the actual data, but whether or not there is any sort of positive correlation between temperature and year. Um, lol?
    Um.... this is how stochastic processes work and are modelled.

    Statistically significant is a scientific term with an actual meaning. Basically, you form a statistical model of the process and then determine the probability that the differences you see between your model and the measured values can be explained with the given noise.
    p-value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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