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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

  1. #401
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Wait, you mean all the frothing, and foaming over "global warming" was based on manipulated, or incomplete data, and flawed models? I......AM.......SHOCKED!!!!!!
    Of course! That's why the arctic ice cap is melting to the point that beginning in 2013, ships could start sailing through there for the first time in human history.
    To do evil, a human being must first of all believe that what hes doing is good" - Solzhenitsyn

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    Of course! That's why the arctic ice cap is melting to the point that beginning in 2013, ships could start sailing through there for the first time in human history.
    Thats good then and so what ? Our satellite records of polar ice only go back to 1979. Last year Antarctica set a record for maximum coverage but unsurprisingly nobody wants to talk about that. Terms like maximum and minimum are both quite meaningless here given the very short duration of our records.

    Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum | NASA



    Last edited by flogger; 04-28-15 at 02:21 PM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    smh , the point is they predict TEMPERATURES. and their predicted TEMPERATURES are off by (well less than) 1% {even with your cherry picked reference point}.
    They predicted temperature changes.

    Their predictions were off by many factors. Not at all acurate to 1%.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    They predicted temperature changes.

    Their predictions were off by many factors. Not at all acurate to 1%.
    Show your math then , that temperature and temperature changes are not related.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    I didn't say it did. Please READ what I wrote.

    It's quite clear you're in WAY over your head at this point.
    You have shown that you are unable to do basic maths involved in understanding what x amount of heat energy added to the top 700m of ocean will do to temperature.

    Since that is something that any reasonable school boy should be able to do at the age of 15 if he is at all a science type your attempt to paint yourself a sage is bogus.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
    You have shown that you are unable to do basic maths involved in understanding what x amount of heat energy added to the top 700m of ocean will do to temperature.

    Since that is something that any reasonable school boy should be able to do at the age of 15 if he is at all a science type your attempt to paint yourself a sage is bogus.

    LMAO @ you claiming anything. I asked you for detailed specifics about your problem and you refused to give them.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    Thanks for brining this up! This is certainly a very important study.
    https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/globa...st-case-models

    Of particular note is this graph.


    The biggest takeaways are:
    1). There are 180 different climate models listed here. All of them are getting warmer. And the global temperate has consistently fallen within the bounds of these models.
    2). In the 1990's, global temperature tended toward the upper extremes of these models. In the 2010's it's been more toward the lower extremes. While the climate models failed to predict this, the duke study calculated a 70% likelihood of seeing these anomalies given a middle of the road warming scenario. But it is highly unlikely that we would have seen these same anomalies if either of the extreme ends of the models were correct.
    3). And most importantly... The study showed that climate models by in large GET IT RIGHT.. but they tend to underestimate short term (decade long) climate variability.

    In short, this study is a near airtight validation of human induced global warming with the most likely outcome being about a 1 deg c temperature rise by 2050.

    (also.. while I applaud your enthusiasm, there's a reason scientists don't read about science in places like the Guardian. Lets just say that Journalists and Physicists don't take very many classes together. And from personal experience, having had various things covered by the press.... it's always been painful to read their descriptions of what we've done. 50% of the coverage tends to be a complete fabrication, the other 50% poorly understood and misstated.
    Good to see you back Mithros.

    At what point do you come to the conclusion that the upper half of the predictions are out?

    Is another 5 years of not warming enough? Do you need 10 or 15 or what?

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Thats good then and so what ? Our satellite records of polar ice only go back to 1979. Last year Antarctica set a record for maximum coverage but unsurprisingly nobody wants to talk about that. Terms like maximum and minimum are both quite meaningless here given the very short duration of our records.

    Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum | NASA

    Did you actually READ what your link said? 'Cause it looks like you only read the headline. From your reference:

    Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

    The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change. Just as the temperatures in some regions of the planet are colder than average, even in our warming world, Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and bucking the overall trend of ice loss.

    The planet as a whole is doing what was expected in terms of warming. Sea ice as a whole is decreasing as expected, but just like with global warming, not every location with sea ice will have a downward trend in ice extent,” Parkinson said.


    But that's what I've seen with so many global warming deniers - they only see that which confirms what they've decided to believe. Any hard data that indicates otherwise...need not apply.
    To do evil, a human being must first of all believe that what hes doing is good" - Solzhenitsyn

    "...with the terrorists, you have to take out their families." - Donald Trump

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    A "clock" in the sense you use it, never really tells the correct time, and a broken one certainly doesn't have to twice a day.
    Go on then, I'll bite.

    How does a stopped clock not show the correct time twice a day? Assuming its a mechanical one with hour and minute hands.

  10. #410
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    Did you actually READ what your link said? 'Cause it looks like you only read the headline. From your reference:

    Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

    The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change. Just as the temperatures in some regions of the planet are colder than average, even in our warming world, Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and bucking the overall trend of ice loss.

    The planet as a whole is doing what was expected in terms of warming. Sea ice as a whole is decreasing as expected, but just like with global warming, not every location with sea ice will have a downward trend in ice extent,” Parkinson said.


    But that's what I've seen with so many global warming deniers - they only see that which confirms what they've decided to believe. Any hard data that indicates otherwise...need not apply.
    Like I said so what . Our satellite records only go back to 1979 (yes even NASA's) and are therefore of little consequence in the determination of anything. The ice core records show polar temperatures naturally wax and wane over the centuries with today being nothing special in great scheme of things

    http://mclean.ch/climate/Ice_cores.htm

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