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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Nothing's being rammed down your throat. If you dispute the effects of climate change, don't worry about it.

    I don't worry about it....Check out my sweet new truck....

    20150212_181336 (2).jpg
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    While leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress have vowed to block regulations to control carbon emissions, a poll by Yale University earlier this month found that 56 percent of Republicans support regulating climate-warming greenhouse gases.
    Darwin is alive....People fall for propaganda all the time....
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    I don't worry about it....Check out my sweet new truck....

    20150212_181336 (2).jpg
    A single cab?
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Darwin is alive....People fall for propaganda all the time....
    Ok, 56% of your brethren have drank the coolaid.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Fearandloathing View Post
    And it's succeeding.

    from 1995 to 2005 the AGW arena was the fastest growing industry on the planet. It now directly employs over 5 million 'non-research' staff world wide and that does not include the public sector where cities run by socialists like Vancouver have a global warming staff of 16.
    Ontario is being bankrupted by liberal green idiots and they are now going to attempt to bankrupt the citizenry as well. Get ready out in BC for having your federal tax dollars funneled into Ontario as our economy craters in the next few years.

    Sad to say, but after living my entire life here, I will be seriously considering a move out of this Province in the near future. I won't enter energy poverty to fund these destructive fools.
    A Canadian conservative is one who believes in limited government and that the government should stay out of our wallets and out of our bedrooms.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    I don't think you understand what you are reading j-mac. Redress got it exactly right, the DailyMail headlines got it wrong in the headlines but the actual article isn't as bad. That is standard misinformation peddling that you fell for.

    The use of "natural variability" is highly misleading in this context. What the study is talking about is the unexpected behavior of the oceans in which heat is cyclically absorbed for decades and then released later. These are long cycles that climate modelers just didn't know about in the 90's. This in turn is what creates the rapid warming and then lull we are observing today. This does not indicate agw being a hoax, or scam, or of manipulated data, or any other silly notion. Even though surface temperatures are not rapidly rising in the last decade or so, we are technically still rapidly warming because of the massive positive net energy imbalance. The upper oceans are warming rapidly and the Earth may also be a "planetary heatsink" which is also absorbing large amounts of heat which is why we're not seeing warming the in deeper levels of the ocean.

    The other component here is that the paper supports the upper spectrum of climate model warming to be unlikely looking at these oscillations. They also say it could change but for now it is less likely not impossible or wrong, or a scam, or anything else. This is just statistics. This is why they have different scenarios because they don't have perfect information so they have to interpolate and make educated predictions.

    Also wanted to add, when the oscillations are back to the warming phase, we will likely see very rapid warming once again and it could easily eclipse the warming we saw from the 70's to 00's. If you think this means agw is going away or not a problem, you're likely quite wrong.
    Um, yeah.
    Like I said on the thread about this very study I posted days ago ... http://www.debatepolitics.com/enviro...post1064563322... it's called ... wait for it ... NATURE ... and it overwhelms to a huge degree anything humans do.

    You people are starting to sound desperate.
    Like Obama with his Earth Day speech a couple of days ago.
    Man! That was embarrassing to watch.
    Better never than late.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Well instead of using some sensationalist rag for your info on matters of science, why don't you just look at what the authors of the actual study had to say about it:

    DURHAM, N.C. – A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    “Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now,” said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. “But this could change.”

    The Duke-led study shows that natural variability in surface temperatures -- caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors -- can account for observed changes in the recent rates of warming from decade to decade.

    The researchers say these “climate wiggles” can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and accentuate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends.

    The research, published today in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, uses empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

    “At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,” said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.
    https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/globa...st-case-models

    Basically what they are saying is that the IPCC models give a range. Their findings are that most likely we should expect warming to be in the middle of that range rather than on the high end. This is what most climate scientists have been saying for years, and it certainly does nothing for the deniers out there. As climate models improve we will see a narrowing of the projected range for future warming. The latest IPCC assessment reflected that, and the next one will almost certainly will narrow down projections on both the low and high end as well. That is how science works.

    What I think is rather telling is that grasping of straws by deniers. One day they argue that climate isn't sensitive to increased CO2 in the atmosphere, the next they cite a study that says that of course its sensitive to increased CO2 in the atmosphere but the worst case scenario past projections are probably unlikely, then they next day they cite some bull**** article claiming we are headed for another ice age, and then the next day they question whether we have warmed at all, then they argue that we are going to warm and have warmed but its the sun..... and on and on and on and on. I mean there is not even any consistency to their arguments other than they just refuse to accept mainstream science.

    As far as mainstream science goes, its basically this: At current levels of CO2 emissions and emissions growth, we will warm by the end of the century by at least 3 degrees and by as much as 8 degrees. Both the lowest estimates for warming and the highest estimates for warming are less likely, and most likely warming will be in the 4 to 6 degree range. We are working on improving projections to narrow that range even further.

    Personally, as its obvious we are not going to do anything about it, we are going to warm and might as well get used to it.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Last edited by flogger; 04-25-15 at 12:51 PM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Wrong on both counts Red....From the article....

    "The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

    'At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,' said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

    The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming.

    To test these, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

    'By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,' Brown said.

    'Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013.'


    'Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections,' Brown said."


    So, not quite what you are trying to paint here...Not surprising that you would try though.
    You just quoted him as saying exactly what I just said...
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Well its hardly surprising the models don't work. Here are just 50 reasons why

    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a...5c9415b970b-pi

    You would probably be better off with a crystal ball frankly
    They did not say the models do not work, they said the most extreme models are unlikely. That is a very large, unsubtle difference.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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