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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

  1. #381
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Latest Global Temps Roy Spencer, PhD



    We know phases of warming or cooling often last for many centuries. This is clearly indicated by the paleoclimatic record. The surface record is patchy unreliable and of too short a duration to be making determinations about anything. The satellite record is accurate but even more meaningless due to its much shorter duration.



    Here is why they are worthless and why they will always fail

    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a...5c9415b970b-pi
    That's actually not bad at all, and his push back against the more extreme global warming models is important. Though he misses some obvious points.


    First, even his data shows an increase in temperature that is very much on par with the median climate models.

    Second, arguing that this is an unexplained natural warming trend misses the obvious issue that it is just as likely that we're in an unexplained natural cooling trend. That means that it is essentially equally likely that the more extreme global warming predictions are right, but we're encountering a natural cooling cycle.

    Third, this is by far the best explanation for the data we've seen.


    And finally, limiting yourself to only reading stuff which supports your point of view means that you'll always agree with yourself.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    lmfao, wow.
    whats wow? typos that nobody cares about?.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    yeah, no doubt. And I should say that I am not smart enough to know, or even understand fully what goes into the AGW debate, but I do know that once they injected a political goal, ie; social justice, and wealth redistribution into the argument, they completely took away from any real science....Now it is what it is, a scam.
    So because some ideologues have their own agenda, you ignore what scientists are reporting?
    "Men did not make the earth ... it is the value of the improvement only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property... Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds." -- Thomas Paine, Agrarian Justice
    http://www.wealthandwant.com/

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    lmfao, wow.
    advise is spelled correctly by the way..

    wow...LMFAO...

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Travis007 View Post
    whats wow? typos that nobody cares about?.
    those weren't "typos"


    thsi si a tpyo (multiple actually)

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    those weren't "typos"


    thsi si a tpyo (multiple actually)
    actually advise is spelled correctly...

    LMFAO!!!!!

    bother me one more time and I will report you..id take my ADVISE

    between you and the other liberal Solletica you both are not familiar with TOS.. I will help you become more familiar

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    That's actually not bad at all, and his push back against the more extreme global warming models is important. Though he misses some obvious points.


    First, even his data shows an increase in temperature that is very much on par with the median climate models.

    Second, arguing that this is an unexplained natural warming trend misses the obvious issue that it is just as likely that we're in an unexplained natural cooling trend. That means that it is essentially equally likely that the more extreme global warming predictions are right, but we're encountering a natural cooling cycle.

    Third, this is by far the best explanation for the data we've seen.


    And finally, limiting yourself to only reading stuff which supports your point of view means that you'll always agree with yourself.
    That graph, from the non-skeptical 'skeptical science', is a bit of a strawman. Skeptics have a variety of views, including that the "natural climate variability" occurs over many centuries...not just decades. Hence, they note that the Holocene, the era of Rome, and the MWP were as or more warm than today. And then there are other skeptics (myself included) that believe there is man-enhanced global warming, but such warming is very modest and likely beneficial.

    Pointing out a linear trend upwards from 1950 to 2010 is mainly undisputed. The real question is how much of the trend since the end of the little ice age is 'natural' and how much of it is man induced.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Travis007 View Post
    actually advise is spelled correctly...

    LMFAO!!!!!

    bother me one more time and I will report you..id take my ADVISE
    case in point, you claimed it was a typo


    advise: verb
    advice: noun


    phrase "My advise is"
    wrong.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    those weren't "typos"


    thsi si a tpyo (multiple actually)
    do you know English or is your second language? since you are harassing me on CORRECT spelling..

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    That's actually not bad at all, and his push back against the more extreme global warming models is important. Though he misses some obvious points.
    First, even his data shows an increase in temperature that is very much on par with the median climate models.
    Not really. The current observed temperature is on course to depart even the very lowest range of modelled predictions. I'm guessing they'll have to widen the goalposts again pretty soon in order to allow for this.

    Second, arguing that this is an unexplained natural warming trend misses the obvious issue that it is just as likely that we're in an unexplained natural cooling trend. That means that it is essentially equally likely that the more extreme global warming predictions are right, but we're encountering a natural cooling cycle.
    A natural warming cycle needs no explanation given we have had literally dozens of them since the last glaciation. Explaining why todays very modest warming cycle is somehow unprecedented or unnatural has yet to be established.

    Third, this is by far the best explanation for the data we've seen.
    You do realise that this schematic is from a rabidly alarmist blog run by a cartoonist and non scientist I hope ? You really should check your sources

    Popular Technology.net: The Truth about Skeptical Science

    And finally, limiting yourself to only reading stuff which supports your point of view means that you'll always agree with yourself.
    I don't. Its because of a careful analysis of both sides of the argument that I currently hold a skeptical view
    Last edited by flogger; 04-28-15 at 11:56 AM.

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