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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    It looks like both you and Travis 007 are here to waste everybody elses time by turning this into a US centric political hate game. Neither of you have contributed anything here to genuine debate and are just here to spew bile at what you have framed as the opposing political camp you lack any valid comprehension of the real issues. Plenty of us here actually DO want to debate this issue rationally even if you have chosen not to so I for one appreciate it if you both would give it a rest
    whats to debate? we are discussing the liberal agenda of it... "weather changes"... whats to debate?

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Because I can read
    Any scientific claim requires evidence to back it up. We do not simply say things and hope people take our word for it.

    You made the claim that we do not have measurements over a long enough time period to accurately predict the future climate. So, what constitutes enough time? How would you know that we have enough to accurately predict the climate?

    I'm quite convinced you know how to read. And while it is an accomplishment that you should certainly be proud of, it sadly is not quite enough to make you an expert on climate models, stochastic processes, or anything else.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. Move the goalposts far enough apart and anything can be made to fit
    A "clock" in the sense you use it, never really tells the correct time, and a broken one certainly doesn't have to twice a day.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Surely, statistical analyses of the 180 climatology models shown in your chart would show that by and large, climatology models get it wrong.
    That's absolutely possible if you know nothing about statistics.


    This is pretty simple stuff.

    global temperature = T(year) + [T] where T(year) is the global trend and [T] is a stochastic process overlayed on top.

    The goal is to find some function of temperature per year which best explains the data. Anyone taking a look at that dataset would immediately begin investigating a linearly increasing function for global temperature. This is clearly a better explanation than a steady state system as the probability for a random process to show such clear trendlines is borderline impossible.
    Last edited by Mithros; 04-28-15 at 10:54 AM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    Any scientific claim requires evidence to back it up. We do not simply say things and hope people take our word for it.
    Latest Global Temps Roy Spencer, PhD

    You made the claim that we do not have measurements over a long enough time period to accurately predict the future climate. So, what constitutes enough time? How would you know that we have enough to accurately predict the climate?
    We know phases of warming or cooling often last for many centuries. This is clearly indicated by the paleoclimatic record. The surface record is patchy unreliable and of too short a duration to be making determinations about anything. The satellite record is accurate but even more meaningless due to its much shorter duration.

    I'm quite convinced you know how to read. And while it is an accomplishment that you should certainly be proud of, it sadly is not quite enough to make you an expert on climate models, stochastic processes, or anything else.
    Here is why they are worthless and why they will always fail

    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a...5c9415b970b-pi

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. Move the goalposts far enough apart and anything can be made to fit
    Yes, and the greater the number of climatology models you run, the greater the likelihood that one will be "right" (i.e. consistent with observations) simply due to chance.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Yes, and the greater the number of climatology models you run, the greater the likelihood that one will be "right" (i.e. consistent with observations) simply due to chance.

    Given we cannot model the two most important elements involved water vapour and CO2 climate sensitivity you would be better off consulting a crystal ball frankly

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Travis007 View Post
    whats to debate? we are discussing the liberal agenda of it... "weather changes"... whats to debate?
    Well perhaps you could do it elsewhere and leave people to actually debate the content of the OP instead

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Well perhaps you could do it elsewhere and leave people to actually debate the content of the OP instead

    My advise to you is put people on ignore if your going to whine about them openly..

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Travis007 View Post
    My advise to you is put people on ignore if your going to whine about them openly..
    lmfao, wow.

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