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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    So, if I ask 180 people to pull predictions out of their asses, and the actual trend falls within the bounds of those predictions, can I similarly claim that people who pull numbers out of their asses by in large get it right?
    Actually yes, providing of course that you do it for a long enough of a time and the guesses fell within a small enough spread for the analysis to be statistically significant.

    And for the record, large numbers of people pulling numbers out of their asses can be a very useful technique. Think oddsmakers, and the stock market.

    Of course, you already realize this as it's pretty basic stuff for anyone even remotely versed in STEM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    These people would hold our entire economic future as hostage to fortune based on this subjective nonsense. As I illustrated earlier this current warming phase is niether unprecedented nor is it in any way abnormal when viewed against the post glacial pattern of natural variation. Even if one views the ice core record of just the last 4,000 years it is clear just how inconsequential todays temperatures are

    Kobashi 2011

    Attachment 67183695

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL049444.pdf
    You do realize that's GREENLAND surface temperature, not GLOBAL surface temperature. The Earth is actually quite a bit larger than Greenland. And that's a good thing, because that chart shows a 5 deg C swing in temperature. If that were global, we'd be in FAR worse trouble than we are now.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    Actually yes, providing of course that you do it for a long enough of a time and the guesses fell within a small enough spread for the analysis to be statistically significant.
    Aye and theres the rub. Our records are not nearly of long enough duration to be making determinations about anything. The most accurate record is probably the UAH satellite record which only starts in 1979 and for nearly half that period has flatlined

    And for the record, large numbers of people pulling numbers out of their asses can be a very useful technique. Think oddsmakers, and the stock market.
    The stock market is based on speculation the climate is not

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Aye and theres the rub. Our records are not nearly of long enough duration to be making determinations about anything. The most accurate record is probably the UAH satellite record which only starts in 1979 and for nearly half that period has flatlined


    The stock market is based on speculation the climate is not
    And you know this how?

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    You do realize that's GREENLAND surface temperature, not GLOBAL surface temperature. The Earth is actually quite a bit larger than Greenland. And that's a good thing, because that chart shows a 5 deg C swing in temperature. If that were global, we'd be in FAR worse trouble than we are now.
    Historically Greenland has tracked Northern hemisphere temperatures pretty closely however there are multiple sources from around the world confirming it too as this interactive map illustrates

    Medieval Warm Period

    It seems global warming advocates like to make hay with the polar temperatures when it fits their agenda but are just as keen to ignore it when it doesn't
    Last edited by flogger; 04-28-15 at 10:31 AM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    And you know this how?
    Because I can read

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    What's disingenuous in pointing out that both the warming since 1998, and the ability of climatologists to predict temperatures to within 1% are both statistically meaningless?
    Nothing is wrong with it. The "one percent" claim is an invalid 'verification statistic' for a model, the other is a current trend that suggests that most models may be overestimating. Generalized snarks about the prior number of posts and derogatory characterizations of others points as "worship" is little more than unentertaining dodging.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    Actually yes, providing of course that you do it for a long enough of a time and the guesses fell within a small enough spread for the analysis to be statistically significant.
    Surely, statistical analyses of the 180 climatology models shown in your chart would show that by and large, climatology models get it wrong.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by solletica View Post
    There's more evidence--glaciers, the ice age, fossil record, study of rocks, etc.--

    Past climates evidence | Climate change | Discovering Geology | British Geological Survey (BGS)

    However, conservatives don't know anything about geology since they claim the Earth is 4000 years old.

    How are you are still here?... after your personal attacks on me..

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Surely, statistical analyses of the 180 climatology models shown in your chart would show that by and large, climatology models get it wrong.
    Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. Move the goalposts far enough apart and anything can be made to fit

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