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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Thank you for giving a link which supports my point and refutes yours. Please revisit Maxwell Boltzmann statistics, and partition functions.
    The vibrational energy transfer from nitrogen to CO2 does not violate any laws of Physics.
    If you think it does, you had better be prepared to tell a lot of people why their CO2
    laser no longer work!

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    The vibrational energy transfer from nitrogen to CO2 does not violate any laws of Physics.
    If you think it does, you had better be prepared to tell a lot of people why their CO2
    laser no longer work!
    I didn't say it did. Please READ what I wrote.

    It's quite clear you're in WAY over your head at this point.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    I didn't say it did. Please READ what I wrote.

    It's quite clear you're in WAY over your head at this point.
    I understand where you think you are going, but the excited nitrogen is in motion,
    and will have a mean free path before it strikes (something else), some percentage
    of the strikes will be CO2, the excited CO2 will then spontaneously decay, throwing off
    photons as it does. While it is decaying, the CO2 is incapable of receiving the 15um ground emission.
    There is a lot of nitrogen out there for the CO2 to impact with!

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Wait, --- ARE ONE OF YOU finally admitting that it's really an asinine measure to use #s to make completely disingenuous points? Gee, now you know how I feel when I read "1998-- no warming! hiatus".

    You see- 2 can play this game, except I can play it in far more ways than most of you can.
    Actually at least one of us is pointing out that claiming a model is informative and predictive because is has an error rate of 1 percent compared to historical values is a logically invalid to use as a model verification statistic. Moreover the hiatus in warming since 1998 is not a predictive trend by skeptic's models, its the actual historical data that conflicts with the predictions of most GCM's.

    You can "game" "anyway you like", but I suggest you start by noting that it is the climate change alarmists that tout the current models are robust predictive tools, not the skeptics. And so far, the data is showing the models are not reliable, seemingly over-estimating future temperatures.
    Last edited by maxparrish; 04-28-15 at 09:45 AM.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I understand where you think you are going, but the excited nitrogen is in motion,
    and will have a mean free path before it strikes (something else), some percentage
    of the strikes will be CO2, the excited CO2 will then spontaneously decay, throwing off
    photons as it does. While it is decaying, the CO2 is incapable of receiving the 15um ground emission.
    There is a lot of nitrogen out there for the CO2 to impact with!
    1) the molecule doesn't "decay",
    2) you still don't understand M-B statistics, partition functions, etc. (AKA, you should really stop)

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by maxparrish View Post
    Moreover the hiatus trend in warming since is not a predictive mode by skepticsl, its historical data that conflicts with the predictions of GCM's.
    case in point @ your double down.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    What is climate change? | Climate Change Education | Climate Change | Washington State Department of Ecology

    Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction

    The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and that it is extremely likely (at least 95% probability) that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warming has been offset by increased aerosols.[1][2][3][4] This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.
    Why We're Concerned with Climate Change

    WNO – WORLD NATURE ORGANIZATION – Climate Change History


    Just for starters.
    A couple of problems with the claims at your links ... they, and others, make distinctions between weather and climate in order to disregard cooling temperature measurements that don't jibe with where they want to take the data ... and they use John Cook (the father of 97% of scientists agree) whose been shown to be a climate charlatan with that claim.
    "One very rewarding opposition strategy has always been to make the mundane look unsavory and draw distinctions with the same behavior by their own team."

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Wait, --- ARE ONE OF YOU finally admitting that it's really an asinine measure to use #s to make completely disingenuous points? Gee, now you know how I feel when I read "1998-- no warming! hiatus".

    You see- 2 can play this game, except I can play it in far more ways than most of you can.
    What's disingenuous in pointing out that both the warming since 1998, and the ability of climatologists to predict temperatures to within 1% are both statistically meaningless?

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    1) the molecule doesn't "decay",
    2) you still don't understand M-B statistics, partition functions, etc. (AKA, you should really stop)
    The energy state of a molecule does in fact decay, in that it transitions from higher to a
    lower energy state. The translation (decay) can ether be spontaneous, or stimulated.
    I am guessing your comment about Maxwell–Boltzmann is in regards to aerosol distribution,
    This incredible image from NASA portrays global...
    aerosols are not evenly distributed.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    I didn't say it did. Please READ what I wrote.

    It's quite clear
    you're in WAY over your head at this point.
    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Wait, --- ARE ONE OF YOU finally admitting that it's really an asinine measure to use #s to make completely disingenuous points? Gee, now you know how I feel when I read "1998-- no warming! hiatus".

    You see- 2 can play this game, except
    I can play it in far more ways than most of you can.
    Good ... lord ... are you trying to be a boor or does it come naturally.
    "One very rewarding opposition strategy has always been to make the mundane look unsavory and draw distinctions with the same behavior by their own team."

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