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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Wrong on both counts Red....From the article....

    "The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

    'At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,' said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

    The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming.

    To test these, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

    'By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,' Brown said.

    'Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013.'


    'Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections,' Brown said."


    So, not quite what you are trying to paint here...Not surprising that you would try though.


    Thank you.

    A layman I sensed something was wrong with that rebuttal but I did not know what.


    This kind of thing is what converted me from a die hard AGW to an outright opponent. There always seems to be some twist, some complex "counter explanation" that doesn't make sense and is filled "scientific jargon". Any question of any report like this, even asking if the article is substantiated elsewhere, draws accusations and insults. "Denier" is an insult, has religious roots and is like screaming "heretic"

    If you have to explain what you do with confusing jargon, whether in the computer industry, hi fi, or hawking cheap **** on a midway, then it's likely they don't know what they're talking about or want to deliberately mislead.

    A good idea doesn't need lies and exaggerations to live. And aren't we going to see the end of life as we know it next year according to Al Gore?
    ""You know, when we sell to other countries, even if they're allies -- you never know about an ally. An ally can turn."
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Ok,

    1. how does that refute the Duke scientists?

    2. The study provided by the Florida commission is just another group using their conclusion first, then working to prove the conclusion....That's NOT science.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Fearandloathing View Post
    Thank you.

    A layman I sensed something was wrong with that rebuttal but I did not know what.


    This kind of thing is what converted me from a die hard AGW to an outright opponent. There always seems to be some twist, some complex "counter explanation" that doesn't make sense and is filled "scientific jargon". Any question of any report like this, even asking if the article is substantiated elsewhere, draws accusations and insults. "Denier" is an insult, has religious roots and is like screaming "heretic"

    If you have to explain what you do with confusing jargon, whether in the computer industry, hi fi, or hawking cheap **** on a midway, then it's likely they don't know what they're talking about or want to deliberately mislead.

    A good idea doesn't need lies and exaggerations to live. And aren't we going to see the end of life as we know it next year according to Al Gore?
    yeah, no doubt. And I should say that I am not smart enough to know, or even understand fully what goes into the AGW debate, but I do know that once they injected a political goal, ie; social justice, and wealth redistribution into the argument, they completely took away from any real science....Now it is what it is, a scam.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    yeah, no doubt. And I should say that I am not smart enough to know, or even understand fully what goes into the AGW debate, but I do know that once they injected a political goal, ie; social justice, and wealth redistribution into the argument, they completely took away from any real science....Now it is what it is, a scam.
    Yep, the final straw was Kyoto. When I got past the media hype and saw what was really in it, that was it.

    It turned pollution into a comodity
    ""You know, when we sell to other countries, even if they're allies -- you never know about an ally. An ally can turn."
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    I don't think you understand what you are reading j-mac. Redress got it exactly right, the DailyMail headlines got it wrong in the headlines but the actual article isn't as bad. That is standard misinformation peddling that you fell for.

    The use of "natural variability" is highly misleading in this context. What the study is talking about is the unexpected behavior of the oceans in which heat is cyclically absorbed for decades and then released later. These are long cycles that climate modelers just didn't know about in the 90's. This in turn is what creates the rapid warming and then lull we are observing today. This does not indicate agw being a hoax, or scam, or of manipulated data, or any other silly notion. Even though surface temperatures are not rapidly rising in the last decade or so, we are technically still rapidly warming because of the massive positive net energy imbalance. The upper oceans are warming rapidly and the Earth may also be a "planetary heatsink" which is also absorbing large amounts of heat which is why we're not seeing warming the in deeper levels of the ocean.

    The other component here is that the paper supports the upper spectrum of climate model warming to be unlikely looking at these oscillations. They also say it could change but for now it is less likely not impossible or wrong, or a scam, or anything else. This is just statistics. This is why they have different scenarios because they don't have perfect information so they have to interpolate and make educated predictions.

    Also wanted to add, when the oscillations are back to the warming phase, we will likely see very rapid warming once again and it could easily eclipse the warming we saw from the 70's to 00's. If you think this means agw is going away or not a problem, you're likely quite wrong.
    Never said that I thought this disproved Climate changes, only that it shows that the supposed science being rammed down our throats, and driving policy that is artificially raising prices across the spectrum for everyone, is based on a political, rather than a scientific explanation. Also, that it is apparent that at this point, as F&L points out rather well, is that AGW proponents have become more akin to a religious cult rather than a rational belief, or debate.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    I don't think you understand what you are reading j-mac. Redress got it exactly right, the DailyMail headlines got it wrong in the headlines but the actual article isn't as bad. That is standard misinformation peddling that you fell for.

    The use of "natural variability" is highly misleading in this context. What the study is talking about is the unexpected behavior of the oceans in which heat is cyclically absorbed for decades and then released later. These are long cycles that climate modelers just didn't know about in the 90's. This in turn is what creates the rapid warming and then lull we are observing today. This does not indicate agw being a hoax, or scam, or of manipulated data, or any other silly notion. Even though surface temperatures are not rapidly rising in the last decade or so, we are technically still rapidly warming because of the massive positive net energy imbalance. The upper oceans are warming rapidly and the Earth may also be a "planetary heatsink" which is also absorbing large amounts of heat which is why we're not seeing warming the in deeper levels of the ocean.

    The other component here is that the paper supports the upper spectrum of climate model warming to be unlikely looking at these oscillations. They also say it could change but for now it is less likely not impossible or wrong, or a scam, or anything else. This is just statistics. This is why they have different scenarios because they don't have perfect information so they have to interpolate and make educated predictions.

    Also wanted to add, when the oscillations are back to the warming phase, we will likely see very rapid warming once again and it could easily eclipse the warming we saw from the 70's to 00's. If you think this means agw is going away or not a problem, you're likely quite wrong.
    Yes, it's obvious the debate rages on and the models and predictions require constant modifications.

    With that as fact, it also remains true the only solution being pushed involves the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind, every human being on the planet change their lives, and a tacit agreement by all mankind to be subservient to a panel of unknown experts who will decide how they get to live life moving forward.

    It's preposterous to believe such a scenario would not be met without extreme skepticism and resistance. Calling these billions who are skeptical names does nothing to forward the AGW agenda.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Ok,

    1. how does that refute the Duke scientists?

    2. The study provided by the Florida commission is just another group using their conclusion first, then working to prove the conclusion....That's NOT science.
    For every one study that diminishes the effects of climate change there's ten that substantiate them.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Ok,

    1. how does that refute the Duke scientists?

    2. The study provided by the Florida commission is just another group using their conclusion first, then working to prove the conclusion....That's NOT science.
    WASHINGTON -- The Senate voted Wednesday to acknowledge that climate change is real, bringing itself up to date with every major scientific body in the world.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Never said that I thought this disproved Climate changes, only that it shows that the supposed science being rammed down our throats, and driving policy that is artificially raising prices across the spectrum for everyone, is based on a political, rather than a scientific explanation. Also, that it is apparent that at this point, as F&L points out rather well, is that AGW proponents have become more akin to a religious cult rather than a rational belief, or debate.
    Nothing's being rammed down your throat. If you dispute the effects of climate change, don't worry about it.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    While leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress have vowed to block regulations to control carbon emissions, a poll by Yale University earlier this month found that 56 percent of Republicans support regulating climate-warming greenhouse gases.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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