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Thread: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    It has more to do with expanding government power/control - wealth redistribution is but one possible path under that scenario. If the government can tax (fine?) you for not having a "private" medical care insurance policy then it is a small step to add a "green" mode of transportation (or home energy source) to the must buy/use list.
    It's far bigger than that - it's a United Nation's exercise driven by a desire to create a world governing body that transfers wealth from first world nations to third world nations and climate change is the current means to that end. They've plainly said so.
    A Canadian conservative is one who believes in limited government and that the government should stay out of our wallets and out of our bedrooms.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    Don't be so cynical.
    Me? Cynical? I thought I was just being a realist.
    A Canadian conservative is one who believes in limited government and that the government should stay out of our wallets and out of our bedrooms.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    That is absolutely and entirely not what the study says. What it says is that the most extreme models are probably not accurate and more moderate models likely, which is not what you would call unexpected. It does not create any doubt about man made effects on climate change. Here is the actual study: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise : Scientific Reports : Nature Publishing Group

    Wrong on both counts Red....From the article....

    "The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

    'At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,' said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

    The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming.

    To test these, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

    'By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,' Brown said.

    'Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013.'


    'Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections,' Brown said."


    So, not quite what you are trying to paint here...Not surprising that you would try though.
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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    And that's what happens when you rely on the Daily Fail to paraphrase and "inform" you...
    Nothing like the good ol' ad hom to contribute NOTHING. as usual.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    That is absolutely and entirely not what the study says. What it says is that the most extreme models are probably not accurate and more moderate models likely, which is not what you would call unexpected. It does not create any doubt about man made effects on climate change. Here is the actual study: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise : Scientific Reports : Nature Publishing Group
    Well its hardly surprising the models don't work. Here are just 50 reasons why

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    Don't be so cynical.
    It's called wisdom where I come from.

    Hope for the best, plan for the worst is the Canadian way.
    "Small people talk about people, average people talk about events, great people talk about ideas" Eleanor Roosevelt

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    It's far bigger than that - it's a United Nation's exercise driven by a desire to create a world governing body that transfers wealth from first world nations to third world nations and climate change is the current means to that end. They've plainly said so.
    And it's succeeding.

    from 1995 to 2005 the AGW arena was the fastest growing industry on the planet. It now directly employs over 5 million 'non-research' staff world wide and that does not include the public sector where cities run by socialists like Vancouver have a global warming staff of 16.
    "Small people talk about people, average people talk about events, great people talk about ideas" Eleanor Roosevelt

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Wait, you mean all the frothing, and foaming over "global warming" was based on manipulated, or incomplete data, and flawed models? I......AM.......SHOCKED!!!!!!

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    That is absolutely and entirely not what the study says. What it says is that the most extreme models are probably not accurate and more moderate models likely, which is not what you would call unexpected. It does not create any doubt about man made effects on climate change. Here is the actual study: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise : Scientific Reports : Nature Publishing Group
    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Wrong on both counts Red....From the article....

    "The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

    'At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,' said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

    The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming.

    To test these, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

    'By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,' Brown said.

    'Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013.'


    'Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections,' Brown said."


    So, not quite what you are trying to paint here...Not surprising that you would try though.
    I don't think you understand what you are reading j-mac. Redress got it exactly right, the DailyMail headlines got it wrong in the headlines but the actual article isn't as bad. That is standard misinformation peddling that you fell for.

    The use of "natural variability" is highly misleading in this context. What the study is talking about is the unexpected behavior of the oceans in which heat is cyclically absorbed for decades and then released later. These are long cycles that climate modelers just didn't know about in the 90's. This in turn is what creates the rapid warming and then lull we are observing today. This does not indicate agw being a hoax, or scam, or of manipulated data, or any other silly notion. Even though surface temperatures are not rapidly rising in the last decade or so, we are technically still rapidly warming because of the massive positive net energy imbalance. The upper oceans are warming rapidly and the Earth may also be a "planetary heatsink" which is also absorbing large amounts of heat which is why we're not seeing warming the in deeper levels of the ocean.

    The other component here is that the paper supports the upper spectrum of climate model warming to be unlikely looking at these oscillations. They also say it could change but for now it is less likely not impossible or wrong, or a scam, or anything else. This is just statistics. This is why they have different scenarios because they don't have perfect information so they have to interpolate and make educated predictions.

    Also wanted to add, when the oscillations are back to the warming phase, we will likely see very rapid warming once again and it could easily eclipse the warming we saw from the 70's to 00's. If you think this means agw is going away or not a problem, you're likely quite wrong.

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    Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

    But, but but the rise is only twenty feet, not twenty one, so it's all a lie!
    Don't work out, work in.

    Never eat anything that's served in a bucket.

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