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Thread: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    Dubious study. Correlation =/= causality. Suicides come in two versions: the semi-fake suicide cry-for-help (person doesn't really want to die, really wants help, usually takes pills), and the determined-to-die suicide, who usually slits the wrists longwise, or hangs their self in private, or shoots their self if a gun can be had. That the latter would be actively deterred by the absence of guns is debateable.
    You're not addressing what the study found, which was the suicide rate is higher for gun owners. For that correlation to hold and not be related to access to a gun, and the relative effectiveness of guns as a way to kill yourself, there has to be some other factor unique to gun owners, such as a higher rate of depression or tendency to act impulsively or something.

    It makes sense to me - cutting yourself badly enough to kill yourself is difficult. Hanging yourself could be painful and last a long time. Drug overdoses often do not kill the person. With a gun, you just pull a trigger - instant, painless death, with no opportunity for a second thought. I know if any loved one is depressed, I'll remove the guns in the house if I can, and I'll reduce the likelihood he or she will kill themselves according to the data.

    Same thing with homicide. We had a story locally yesterday. Couple got into a silly argument, wife pulls out the pistol in the bedside table used for 'protection' and murders hubby. Sure, she could have stabbed him, but she's unlikely to kill him with anything but a firearm. So the gun he bought for protection killed him. That's not unusual, but it usually works the other way, with the man killing the woman.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    You're not addressing what the study found, which was the suicide rate is higher for gun owners. For that correlation to hold and not be related to access to a gun, and the relative effectiveness of guns as a way to kill yourself, there has to be some other factor unique to gun owners, such as a higher rate of depression or tendency to act impulsively or something.

    It makes sense to me - cutting yourself badly enough to kill yourself is difficult. Hanging yourself could be painful and last a long time. Drug overdoses often do not kill the person. With a gun, you just pull a trigger - instant, painless death, with no opportunity for a second thought. I know if any loved one is depressed, I'll remove the guns in the house if I can, and I'll reduce the likelihood he or she will kill themselves according to the data.

    Same thing with homicide. We had a story locally yesterday. Couple got into a silly argument, wife pulls out the pistol in the bedside table used for 'protection' and murders hubby. Sure, she could have stabbed him, but she's unlikely to kill him with anything but a firearm. So the gun he bought for protection killed him. That's not unusual, but it usually works the other way, with the man killing the woman.


    Ok. Entertaining for the moment there's something to that... What's your solution?

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    I don't believe your studies. I believe they are politically biased and another example of correlation =/= causality.
    Well if you don't like it there are a number of other studies sublinked within this article which compound its conclusions. This sort of issue is only political in the US, in every other developed country its a health and safety issue

    Guns don't offer protection

    My extended family and kin run into the hundreds. We are almost all gun owners. TMK none of us in living memory has ever shot anyone by accident or unlawfully.
    .......yet

    The only successful suicide I recall was a cousin who took pills. However, some of us have indeed defended our persons or homes with firearms.
    I take such claims with a large pinch of salt frankly

    So you slanted statistics and studies mean little to me.
    If you don't want to see something I cannot force you to how ever many studies I might present in defence of my position

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    Ok. Entertaining for the moment there's something to that... What's your solution?
    For suicides, education and access to mental health services. I think people should know when they choose to own a gun and keep it readily available for protection in the home, the odds are higher that they or a loved one will be killed by THAT gun than by any potentially murderous intruder that can be stopped by having a gun for protection. It's just what the evidence shows in study after study.

    I'm aware of the risk, and I accept it, but what I don't do is pretend that having a shotgun at home makes me safer. I know it increases the risk of me or someone in my household dying. So I mitigate that as best I can, and wouldn't consider keeping a loaded weapon anywhere in the house.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Well if you don't like it there are a number of other studies sublinked within this article which compound its conclusions. This sort of issue is only political in the US, in every other developed country its a health and safety issue

    Guns don't offer protection



    .......yet



    I take such claims with a large pinch of salt frankly



    If you don't want to see something I cannot force you to how ever many studies I might present in defence of my position


    Bud, that pool has been peed in too often. You can find a "studies show blah blah blah" for any position you like. If you can't find one, pay some research group enough money and they'll create one that supports the outcome you want.

    Back years ago I used to dig into such studies and spend time sorting through their methodology, raw data and so on. Time and again I found questionable data, questionable sampling, questionable methodologies. Failure to take into account other factors, etc. Frequently I found the study had bee commissioned and paid for by some group with an axe to grind.

    I don't bother going to all that work anymore.

    I used to counter with a gazillion studies proving that firearms ARE useful for protection, etc... but there's little point in that, since you won't believe MY studies any more than vice-versa.


    You can TELL me guns don't offer protection. I won't believe you, because being armed has already PROTECTED me and people I know in real life more than once.

    You can tell me its raining... if I look out my door and see sunshine and blue skies, I'm not buying it.
    Last edited by Goshin; 04-14-15 at 01:44 PM.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    For suicides, education and access to mental health services. I think people should know when they choose to own a gun and keep it readily available for protection in the home, the odds are higher that they or a loved one will be killed by THAT gun than by any potentially murderous intruder that can be stopped by having a gun for protection. It's just what the evidence shows in study after study.

    I'm aware of the risk, and I accept it, but what I don't do is pretend that having a shotgun at home makes me safer. I know it increases the risk of me or someone in my household dying. So I mitigate that as best I can, and wouldn't consider keeping a loaded weapon anywhere in the house.

    I'm sorry you feel having a shotgun at home makes you less safe.

    I don't feel that my shotgun, my five pistols and three rifles make me and mine less safe. None of us are suicidal, and we're all taught from childhood how to handle arms safely.

    Given that we had a recent incident where a certain criminal ran off from his victim when I arrived at the scene, and that his hasty flight was almost certainly a result of him knowing I'd be armed and that I would shoot him if need be, I personally feel much better about being armed than I would about being unarmed.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    Bud, that pool has been peed in too often. You can find a "studies show blah blah blah" for any position you like. If you can't find one, pay some research group enough money and they'll create one that supports the outcome you want.

    Back years ago I used to dig into such studies and spend time sorting through their methodology, raw data and so on. Time and again I found questionable data, questionable sampling, questionable methodologies. Failure to take into account other factors, etc. Frequently I found the study had bee commissioned and paid for by some group with an axe to grind.
    I don't see how that's a reasonable way to go about evaluating evidence - just dismiss it all as irrelevant nonsense. There is an objective reality out there about the relative safety of owning a gun and keeping it at home. There is no way other than a study to determine what that is. It may not matter to you what the evidence shows, but that doesn't excuse disregarding all the best evidence we do have.

    I don't bother going to all that work anymore.

    I used to counter with a gazillion studies proving that firearms ARE useful for protection, etc... but there's little point in that, since you won't believe MY studies any more than vice-versa.

    You can TELL me guns don't offer protection. I won't believe you, because being armed has already PROTECTED me and people I know in real life more than once.
    It's not a question about whether guns do offer protection - of course they do on occasion. But what's often the case is someone, for example, scares a burglar out of their home with a gun. OK, that's good, but in almost all cases, a baseball bat or frying pan would work just as well, because few burglars are also cold blooded killers. They just move to the next house when confronted. Other times guns do stop wannabe murderers, but that's also not the question. What the studies seek to answer is whether owning a gun makes you safer or less safe, more or less likely to die as a result of murder or suicide. The evidence shows guns ARE often used for self defense but INCREASE your odds of dying. They're totally consistent findings.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    Bud, that pool has been peed in too often. You can find a "studies show blah blah blah" for any position you like. If you can't find one, pay some research group enough money and they'll create one that supports the outcome you want.
    If their conclusions are all in error then I'm sure you will be able to illustrate that ?

    Back years ago I used to dig into such studies and spend time sorting through their methodology, raw data and so on. Time and again I found questionable data, questionable sampling, questionable methodologies. Failure to take into account other factors, etc. Frequently I found the study had bee commissioned and paid for by some group with an axe to grind.
    Forget the studies then and just deal with the math instead. In the US you are over 40 times more likely to be shot than in the UK leading to a five times higher overall murder rate per capita. Your police forces kill on average over 100 suspects per month nearly all using firearms. Ours have killed just 52 suspects in over a century. You lost 126 police officers in the line of duty last year . We lost ..... none. What do you think is the essential variable that leads to such discrepancies within our respective societies ? Societies that are otherwise fairly similar

    You can TELL me guns don't offer protection. I won't believe you, because being armed has already PROTECTED me and people I know in real life more than once.
    So you claim ......hmmm

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Sorry, but risk level has no effect on rights.

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    Re: One-year-old shot dead by 3-year old in Cleveland home.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    I don't see how that's a reasonable way to go about evaluating evidence - just dismiss it all as irrelevant nonsense. There is an objective reality out there about the relative safety of owning a gun and keeping it at home. There is no way other than a study to determine what that is. It may not matter to you what the evidence shows, but that doesn't excuse disregarding all the best evidence we do have.



    It's not a question about whether guns do offer protection - of course they do on occasion. But what's often the case is someone, for example, scares a burglar out of their home with a gun. OK, that's good, but in almost all cases, a baseball bat or frying pan would work just as well, because few burglars are also cold blooded killers. They just move to the next house when confronted. Other times guns do stop wannabe murderers, but that's also not the question. What the studies seek to answer is whether owning a gun makes you safer or less safe, more or less likely to die as a result of murder or suicide. The evidence shows guns ARE often used for self defense but INCREASE your odds of dying. They're totally consistent findings.


    Yes they are inconsistent, that's why I don't pay them much heed anymore.

    There's a DOJ study that says you're more likely to survive a violent crime by resisting than not, and that resisting with a firearm is more effective than unarmed or with lesser weapons.

    That seems to contradict those other studies to some degree.

    Then there's Kleck and others whose studies say DGUs (defensive gun uses) number from the hundreds of thousands to possibly over a million annually, in most cases with no shots fired. Anti-gunners tend to dismiss and poo-poo Kleck and the gazillion other studies of this type on the basis of data and method etc, so I guess I can do the same for THEIR studies.


    As for ball bats and frying pans, personally I feel a lot better confronting an intruder with a .45 in hand than any of those. Figure he's more likely to bolt too... and some intruders are not burglars, btw. Some of them will laugh at Joe Average with a ball bat or Jane Average with a frying pan...

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    ISIS: Carthago Delenda Est
    "I used to roll the dice; see the fear in my enemies' eyes... listen as the crowd would sing, 'now the old king is dead, Long Live the King.'.."

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