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Thread: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

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    Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Reuters
    Thu Apr 9, 2015

    Iran will only sign a final nuclear accord with six world powers if all sanctions imposed over its disputed atomic work are lifted on the same day, President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech on Thursday. "We will not sign any deal unless all sanctions are lifted on the same day ... We want a win-win deal for all parties involved in the nuclear talks," Rouhani said. Iran insists all nuclear-related United Nations resolutions, as well as U.S. and EU nuclear-related economic sanctions, will be lifted immediately once a final accord is signed.
    Four days ago I wrote this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Personally, I have grave doubts that a mutual accord will be reached primarily; 1) due to the sanctions-relief issue and 2) due to the obligatory intrusive-inspections regimen. I also highly doubt Iran will accept a comprehensive and thorough accounting of PMDs (Possible Military Dimensions).
    Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

    However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani


    Four days ago I wrote this:



    Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

    However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.
    No big surprise here. Contrary to the claims of some rather inexperienced media pundits who saw the understandings as surprisingly specific, they were general and crafted to allow for each side to interpret matters as it sees fit. The U.S. fact sheet, which was posted as text of the understandings in some media, was the U.S. interpretation. The Iranian Foreign Minister pushed back on several issues on that fact sheet, including the timing of sanctions relief. Iran had not wavered on its demand for an immediate lifting of sanctions at the time the understandings were reached. President Rouhani is now restating that point. Even more importantly, Ayatollah Khamenei has also called for the immediate and complete termination of sanctions (Iran's Khamenei says neither rejects, accepts nuclear deal, details key | Reuters)

    The ambiguity in the understandings allowed the parties to continue the talks. Specificity may blow things up if the parties' differences cannot be bridged. So far, there seems to be little flexibility on the part of Iran.

    Finally, I agree with your position concerning opposition to any deal that would immediately terminate all of the sanctions. Sanctions relief should be tied to verified Iranian performance. I also believe a robust agreement needs to allow for unfettered snap inspections anytime, anywhere. Otherwise, given Iran's past deception, there will be risks that Iran could carry out illicit nuclear activities even in the context of an agreement, much as happened in North Korea during the 1990s.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Add the Iranian Defense Ministers statement:

    http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13940119001292
    Iranian Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan has rejected reports on inspection of the country’s military facilities being included in the recent deal achieved by Iran and the world powers (P5+1) in Switzerland’s Lausanne on April 2, Fars news agency reported on April 8. .... “There is no such agreement. Basically, inspection of military facilities is a red line and no inspection of any kind from such facilities would be accepted.”
    and the entire "deal" becomes meaningless.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    No big surprise here. Contrary to the claims of some rather inexperienced media pundits who saw the understandings as surprisingly specific, they were general and crafted to allow for each side to interpret matters as it sees fit. The U.S. fact sheet, which was posted as text of the understandings in some media, was the U.S. interpretation. The Iranian Foreign Minister pushed back on several issues on that fact sheet, including the timing of sanctions relief. Iran had not wavered on its demand for an immediate lifting of sanctions at the time the understandings were reached. President Rouhani is now restating that point. Even more importantly, Ayatollah Khamenei has also called for the immediate and complete termination of sanctions (Iran's Khamenei says neither rejects, accepts nuclear deal, details key | Reuters)

    The ambiguity in the understandings allowed the parties to continue the talks. Specificity may blow things up if the parties' differences cannot be bridged. So far, there seems to be little flexibility on the part of Iran.

    Finally, I agree with your position concerning opposition to any deal that would immediately terminate all of the sanctions. Sanctions relief should be tied to verified Iranian performance. I also believe a robust agreement needs to allow for unfettered snap inspections anytime, anywhere. Otherwise, given Iran's past deception, there will be risks that Iran could carry out illicit nuclear activities even in the context of an agreement, much as happened in North Korea during the 1990s.
    Yes, there is a past which should be a precedent for the required conduct of Iran in this case. Sanctions brought Iran to the table. Sanctions will assure compliance if a robust inspection regimen to assure compliance is coupled to any relief. Anything less is useless with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
    "I believe that man will not merely endure: he will prevail. He is immortal, not because he alone among creatures has an inexhaustible voice, but because he has a soul, a spirit capable of compassion and sacrifice and endurance." William Faulkner

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Worse than all of this, the Obama administration would probably agree to the terms if it means getting their "deal." Which puts more pressure on the conversation about this being a treaty agreement needing Congress or an Executive Action with a chance termination date in 2016.

    I agree with the OP, lifting sanctions has to be linked to compliance in some regard.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani


    Four days ago I wrote this:



    Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

    However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.
    An interesting development. Thanks for the post. Interesting to learn about the escalating pressure from within to get the deal done, and get sanctions eased.

    Not sure it's viable to drop all the sanctions day one, unless there is a compensating control for greater compliance. If this internal pressure is a leverage point, then the P5+5 nation's negotiators need to consider how to leverage that and use it to their advantage.
    Nancy Pelosi said: “We have to pass it, to find out what’s in it.” A Doctor called to a radio show & said: "That's the definition of a stool sample"
    It's a global Jihad, stupid. Allowing that poison into the country is only going to increase the damage it inflicts on others.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    "The Iranian nation has been and will be the victor in the negotiations."

    Iran insists all nuclear-related United Nations resolutions, as well as U.S. and EU nuclear-related economic sanctions, will be lifted immediately once a final accord is signed.....snip~


    As one can see, Iran even views the negotiations as a battle. According to Rouhani this removal of all sanctions.....will also include removing all Nuclear Related UN resolutions.

    Which would include attempts to gain access to their Military bases and their violation with the use of their ballistic missiles.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Yes, there is a past which should be a precedent for the required conduct of Iran in this case. Sanctions brought Iran to the table. Sanctions will assure compliance if a robust inspection regimen to assure compliance is coupled to any relief. Anything less is useless with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
    Good morning, humbolt.

    Because of the way it's been worded, it sounds more like a demand than a negotiating tool, and it's meant to look exactly that way, IMO! They're being deliberately outrageous and cheeky for a reason, and I think they're enjoying themselves immensely at the consternation they're causing. Sure, they'd like it their way... who wouldn't? They seem to disregard the fact that it's been their past failure to keep their word that brought sanctions in the first place, and I think they know that there's a 95 percent probability that it's not going to happen. I'm giving the other five percent as a hedge allowing for total stupidity and capitulation on our part, which has to be taken into account, because BHO seems to want this agreement - or any agreement - very badly.

    Look, Iran is making deals with China to supply all the oil China wants to buy, so they're not hurting financially. Sure, they'd like access to their billions of dollars tied up with the sanctions - that would be icing on the cake, but they're not exactly counting pennies over there. Israel and some of the other Arab countries are being put in the middle here, though, and I think they might do what they think is best for them. In the end, that's probably what's going to happen anyway, since not only don't they trust Iran, they don't trust us either! My opinion only.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Yes, there is a past which should be a precedent for the required conduct of Iran in this case. Sanctions brought Iran to the table. Sanctions will assure compliance if a robust inspection regimen to assure compliance is coupled to any relief. Anything less is useless with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
    Agreed. If they refuse then increased sanctions should and I am sure will be imposed.

    Surprised that many missed this key flop.
    Obama says Iran could cut nuke time to near zero in 13 years - Business Insider

    He told NPR News that Iran will be capped for a decade at 300 kilograms - not enough to convert to a stockpile of weapons-grade material.

    "What is a more relevant fear would be that in Year 13, 14, 15, they have advanced centrifuges that enrich uranium fairly rapidly, and at that point, the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero," Obama said.
    If my post offends you, I deeply Apple-O-Jize.

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    Re: Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Add the Iranian Defense Ministers statement:

    http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13940119001292


    and the entire "deal" becomes meaningless.
    Shocker.

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