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Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

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Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani

Reuters
Thu Apr 9, 2015

Iran will only sign a final nuclear accord with six world powers if all sanctions imposed over its disputed atomic work are lifted on the same day, President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech on Thursday. "We will not sign any deal unless all sanctions are lifted on the same day ... We want a win-win deal for all parties involved in the nuclear talks," Rouhani said. Iran insists all nuclear-related United Nations resolutions, as well as U.S. and EU nuclear-related economic sanctions, will be lifted immediately once a final accord is signed.
Four days ago I wrote this:

Simpleχity;1064498892 said:
Personally, I have grave doubts that a mutual accord will be reached primarily; 1) due to the sanctions-relief issue and 2) due to the obligatory intrusive-inspections regimen. I also highly doubt Iran will accept a comprehensive and thorough accounting of PMDs (Possible Military Dimensions).

Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.
 
Simpleχity;1064511185 said:
Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani


Four days ago I wrote this:



Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.

No big surprise here. Contrary to the claims of some rather inexperienced media pundits who saw the understandings as surprisingly specific, they were general and crafted to allow for each side to interpret matters as it sees fit. The U.S. fact sheet, which was posted as text of the understandings in some media, was the U.S. interpretation. The Iranian Foreign Minister pushed back on several issues on that fact sheet, including the timing of sanctions relief. Iran had not wavered on its demand for an immediate lifting of sanctions at the time the understandings were reached. President Rouhani is now restating that point. Even more importantly, Ayatollah Khamenei has also called for the immediate and complete termination of sanctions (Iran's Khamenei says neither rejects, accepts nuclear deal, details key | Reuters)

The ambiguity in the understandings allowed the parties to continue the talks. Specificity may blow things up if the parties' differences cannot be bridged. So far, there seems to be little flexibility on the part of Iran.

Finally, I agree with your position concerning opposition to any deal that would immediately terminate all of the sanctions. Sanctions relief should be tied to verified Iranian performance. I also believe a robust agreement needs to allow for unfettered snap inspections anytime, anywhere. Otherwise, given Iran's past deception, there will be risks that Iran could carry out illicit nuclear activities even in the context of an agreement, much as happened in North Korea during the 1990s.
 
Add the Iranian Defense Ministers statement:

http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13940119001292
Iranian Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan has rejected reports on inspection of the country’s military facilities being included in the recent deal achieved by Iran and the world powers (P5+1) in Switzerland’s Lausanne on April 2, Fars news agency reported on April 8. .... “There is no such agreement. Basically, inspection of military facilities is a red line and no inspection of any kind from such facilities would be accepted.”

and the entire "deal" becomes meaningless.
 
No big surprise here. Contrary to the claims of some rather inexperienced media pundits who saw the understandings as surprisingly specific, they were general and crafted to allow for each side to interpret matters as it sees fit. The U.S. fact sheet, which was posted as text of the understandings in some media, was the U.S. interpretation. The Iranian Foreign Minister pushed back on several issues on that fact sheet, including the timing of sanctions relief. Iran had not wavered on its demand for an immediate lifting of sanctions at the time the understandings were reached. President Rouhani is now restating that point. Even more importantly, Ayatollah Khamenei has also called for the immediate and complete termination of sanctions (Iran's Khamenei says neither rejects, accepts nuclear deal, details key | Reuters)

The ambiguity in the understandings allowed the parties to continue the talks. Specificity may blow things up if the parties' differences cannot be bridged. So far, there seems to be little flexibility on the part of Iran.

Finally, I agree with your position concerning opposition to any deal that would immediately terminate all of the sanctions. Sanctions relief should be tied to verified Iranian performance. I also believe a robust agreement needs to allow for unfettered snap inspections anytime, anywhere. Otherwise, given Iran's past deception, there will be risks that Iran could carry out illicit nuclear activities even in the context of an agreement, much as happened in North Korea during the 1990s.

Yes, there is a past which should be a precedent for the required conduct of Iran in this case. Sanctions brought Iran to the table. Sanctions will assure compliance if a robust inspection regimen to assure compliance is coupled to any relief. Anything less is useless with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
 
Worse than all of this, the Obama administration would probably agree to the terms if it means getting their "deal." Which puts more pressure on the conversation about this being a treaty agreement needing Congress or an Executive Action with a chance termination date in 2016.

I agree with the OP, lifting sanctions has to be linked to compliance in some regard.
 
Simpleχity;1064511185 said:
Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani


Four days ago I wrote this:



Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.

An interesting development. Thanks for the post. Interesting to learn about the escalating pressure from within to get the deal done, and get sanctions eased.

Not sure it's viable to drop all the sanctions day one, unless there is a compensating control for greater compliance. If this internal pressure is a leverage point, then the P5+5 nation's negotiators need to consider how to leverage that and use it to their advantage.
 
"The Iranian nation has been and will be the victor in the negotiations."

Iran insists all nuclear-related United Nations resolutions, as well as U.S. and EU nuclear-related economic sanctions, will be lifted immediately once a final accord is signed.....snip~


As one can see, Iran even views the negotiations as a battle. According to Rouhani this removal of all sanctions.....will also include removing all Nuclear Related UN resolutions.

Which would include attempts to gain access to their Military bases and their violation with the use of their ballistic missiles.
 
Yes, there is a past which should be a precedent for the required conduct of Iran in this case. Sanctions brought Iran to the table. Sanctions will assure compliance if a robust inspection regimen to assure compliance is coupled to any relief. Anything less is useless with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Good morning, humbolt. :2wave:

Because of the way it's been worded, it sounds more like a demand than a negotiating tool, and it's meant to look exactly that way, IMO! They're being deliberately outrageous and cheeky for a reason, and I think they're enjoying themselves immensely at the consternation they're causing. Sure, they'd like it their way... who wouldn't? They seem to disregard the fact that it's been their past failure to keep their word that brought sanctions in the first place, and I think they know that there's a 95 percent probability that it's not going to happen. I'm giving the other five percent as a hedge allowing for total stupidity and capitulation on our part, which has to be taken into account, because BHO seems to want this agreement - or any agreement - very badly.

Look, Iran is making deals with China to supply all the oil China wants to buy, so they're not hurting financially. Sure, they'd like access to their billions of dollars tied up with the sanctions - that would be icing on the cake, but they're not exactly counting pennies over there. Israel and some of the other Arab countries are being put in the middle here, though, and I think they might do what they think is best for them. In the end, that's probably what's going to happen anyway, since not only don't they trust Iran, they don't trust us either! My opinion only.
 
Yes, there is a past which should be a precedent for the required conduct of Iran in this case. Sanctions brought Iran to the table. Sanctions will assure compliance if a robust inspection regimen to assure compliance is coupled to any relief. Anything less is useless with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Agreed. If they refuse then increased sanctions should and I am sure will be imposed.

Surprised that many missed this key flop.
Obama says Iran could cut nuke time to near zero in 13 years - Business Insider

He told NPR News that Iran will be capped for a decade at 300 kilograms - not enough to convert to a stockpile of weapons-grade material.

"What is a more relevant fear would be that in Year 13, 14, 15, they have advanced centrifuges that enrich uranium fairly rapidly, and at that point, the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero," Obama said.
 
Add the Iranian Defense Ministers statement:

http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13940119001292


and the entire "deal" becomes meaningless.
Exactly. Once the sanctions are lifted they will never be put back in place because so many European companies are ready to do business with these terrorist killers but 0bama will sign the deal knowing that it will empower Iran to get the bomb and keep spending on their empire building.

0bama and Kerry have already given tons of aid to this sworn enemy knowing that it will cost American lives. just the idea that we are dealing the way we are with the people who provided the IEDs that killed so many American troops makes me sick but worse is that the Republicans are doing nothing to stop 0bama. It is a little hard to believe that the liberal horde has supported the 0bama gang to this extent but there are signs that they may slap the Black boy across the face to help Hillary in 2016 but she should be arrested too so the Senate dems may just try to save the country without causing race riots and if "0" doesn't get his way he will play the race card on the dems as he has on the christians that he pretends to be one of.
 
Good morning, humbolt. :2wave:

Because of the way it's been worded, it sounds more like a demand than a negotiating tool, and it's meant to look exactly that way, IMO! They're being deliberately outrageous and cheeky for a reason, and I think they're enjoying themselves immensely at the consternation they're causing. Sure, they'd like it their way... who wouldn't? They seem to disregard the fact that it's been their past failure to keep their word that brought sanctions in the first place, and I think they know that there's a 95 percent probability that it's not going to happen. I'm giving the other five percent as a hedge allowing for total stupidity and capitulation on our part, which has to be taken into account, because BHO seems to want this agreement - or any agreement - very badly.

I agree. All of this is going on based on a calculated "break out" time that could be in error. Iran looks at this as a win either way - by the time anything substantive is negotiated, if it ever is, they may have already achieved their nuclear goal. If they can get sanctions lifted before that's discovered...

Look, Iran is making deals with China to supply all the oil China wants to buy, so they're not hurting financially. Sure, they'd like access to their billions of dollars tied up with the sanctions - that would be icing on the cake, but they're not exactly counting pennies over there. Israel and some of the other Arab countries are being put in the middle here, though, and I think they might do what they think is best for them. In the end, that's probably what's going to happen anyway, since not only don't they trust Iran, they don't trust us either! My opinion only.

Agreed again. Given our actions of late, who on the planet trusts us? I don't even trust us.
 
Agreed. If they refuse then increased sanctions should and I am sure will be imposed.

Surprised that many missed this key flop.
Obama says Iran could cut nuke time to near zero in 13 years - Business Insider

I could be mistaken here, but I believe that advanced centrifuges are already going to be allowed in the framework - just a limited number. Someone with greater knowledge on this subject might shed some light on the centrifuge issue. I'm not holding my breath that calculated breakout times are accurate, anyway. I tend to think not.
 
If a deal is signed, its an agreement between Iran and Germany, Russia, France, the UK, China and the US!!!! Not an agreement between Obama and Iran.
 
Agreed. If they refuse then increased sanctions should and I am sure will be imposed.

Surprised that many missed this key flop.
Obama says Iran could cut nuke time to near zero in 13 years - Business Insider


Mornin JF. :2wave: It appears this is what they think their main gain was. That BO acknowledged that the Iranians will not bow to pressure. From the link itself.


"Our main gain in the talks was the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama acknowledged that Iranians will not surrender to bullying, sanctions and threats," Rouhani said.

"It is a triumph for Iran that the first military power in the world has admitted Iranians will not bow to pressure.".....snip~



This framework understanding.....was to assist in taking the next step to a deal. One that now that many are seeing as a bad deal. Now while this understanding was written up so that both sides could have some sort of understanding to take back to their people. This does not explain the complete misunderstanding on Iran's part of what the US is saying. They know damn well what BO and his people have been running around saying. They didn't have any trouble with the letter they received and understood that fully and completely.

Yet here they have been from day one when BO.....was flapping out how Historic his way of dealing with Iran was. Disputing some very key talking points that BO and his team have been using. Disputing what our MS media has stated. What other politicians have stated. It hasn't stopped and now they claim victory in taking on the 6 World powers. Despite two of them in their back pocket. So to speak.
 
I could be mistaken here, but I believe that advanced centrifuges are already going to be allowed in the framework - just a limited number. Someone with greater knowledge on this subject might shed some light on the centrifuge issue. I'm not holding my breath that calculated breakout times are accurate, anyway. I tend to think not.

:agree: The numbers are all over the board - from months to years - and North Korea has partnered with them to provide assistance in reaching their goal. Hell, it worked for them under Clinton, so why not try it again! I'm a little surprised that China is allowing North Korea to do this, though, but I'm sure they have their own objectives in mind. No one is that altruistic without a reason, and they do want those islands in the South China sea area back - those they claim have long belonged to them! And wasn't it China that gave us the saying - "may you live in interesting times," which sounds like a blessing, but in fact is a curse! :shock:
 
:agree: The numbers are all over the board - from months to years - and North Korea has partnered with them to provide assistance in reaching their goal. Hell, it worked for them under Clinton, so why not try it again! I'm a little surprised that China is allowing North Korea to do this, though, but I'm sure they have their own objectives in mind. No one is that altruistic without a reason, and they do want those islands in the South China sea area back - those they claim have long belonged to them! And wasn't it China that gave us the saying - "may you live in interesting times," which sounds like a blessing, but in fact is a curse! :shock:

Hopefully we learned a little something from the NK incident. Doesn't look that way, but I remain hopeful.
 
Iran's Khamenei breaks silence in nuclear deal, says details are key

Reuters
Thu Apr 9, 2015

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday demanded that all sanctions on Iran be lifted at the same time as any final agreement with world powers on curbing Tehran's nuclear program is concluded. His stand on the lifting of sanctions matched earlier comments by Rouhani, who said Iran would only sign a final nuclear accord if all measures imposed over its disputed atomic work are lifted on the same day. These include nuclear-related United Nations resolutions as well as U.S. and EU nuclear-related economic sanctions.

"All sanctions should be removed when the deal is signed. If the sanctions removal depends on other processes, then why did we start the negotiations?" Khamenei said.

The United States and its Western allies say it is vital that Iran fully cooperate with a U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigation into past nuclear activities that could be related to making weapons. Iran for its part has said that "possible military dimensions" (PMD) are an issue it will not budge on. "PMD is out of the question. It cannot be discussed," an Iranian official said. This issue has not been resolved. Khamenei ruled out any "extraordinary supervision measures" over Iran's nuclear activities. "Iran's military sites cannot be inspected under the excuse of nuclear supervision," he said.

The "fact sheet" released by the US stated that Iran would be limited to its IR-1 centrifuges. Some Iranian officials are now claiming that they can utilize their IR-8 centrifuges which are 20x more efficient than the IR-1.

If these publicly stated regime positions on sanctions and inspections are entrenched and nonnegotiable, then I consider continuing the negotiations to be utterly pointless. I could never support any such devil's bargain.
 
Simpleχity;1064511185 said:
Iran will only sign nuclear deal if sanctions lifted 'same day': Rouhani


Four days ago I wrote this:



Rouhani is in a difficult position. On the day the framework agreement was announced, jubilant and cheering crowds gathered all over Iran. The Iranian population of 80 million is young. 42% of Iranians are under the age of 25. Sequestration from the international community has affected them profoundly. They were madly cheering because they expect to see and experience tangible results from any nuclear agreement. They expect more job prospects, a higher standard of living, and higher wages. And if all this betterment doesn't materialize very soon, the regime is in trouble ... and could even fall. Which is why Rouhani is demanding that all sanctions end immediately once a final agreement is signed.

However, I cannot personally support any final agreement in which all nuclear-related sanctions (UN/US/EU) are terminated immediately. No P5+5 nation should even fleetingly consider such a concession. Sanctions should only be lifted in timed tranches and based on optimum performance and total compliance.

This development strengthens my belief that the hard liners who rule Iran never intend to compromise their quest for nuclear weapons. They have to go through the kabuki of negotiations to placate their people, but in the final analysis they are always going to stiff arm efforts to keep them from developing weapons and blame sanctions on the intransigence of Western nations. Continuing down this path they will eventually get their weapons, and then they will be even harder to deal with and a much greater threat to the region and to the world. It is not in our best interest to continue these faux negotiations indefinitely. I would propose a deadline, set sooner rather than later, after which the issue will be settled by force of arms.
 
I could be mistaken here, but I believe that advanced centrifuges are already going to be allowed in the framework - just a limited number. Someone with greater knowledge on this subject might shed some light on the centrifuge issue. I'm not holding my breath that calculated breakout times are accurate, anyway. I tend to think not.

Not sure either. Their was a thread with a link detailing the agreement.
Never saved it.
Looking for it though.
 
Mornin JF. :2wave: It appears this is what they think their main gain was. That BO acknowledged that the Iranians will not bow to pressure. From the link itself.


"Our main gain in the talks was the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama acknowledged that Iranians will not surrender to bullying, sanctions and threats," Rouhani said.

"It is a triumph for Iran that the first military power in the world has admitted Iranians will not bow to pressure.".....snip~



This framework understanding.....was to assist in taking the next step to a deal. One that now that many are seeing as a bad deal. Now while this understanding was written up so that both sides could have some sort of understanding to take back to their people. This does not explain the complete misunderstanding on Iran's part of what the US is saying. They know damn well what BO and his people have been running around saying. They didn't have any trouble with the letter they received and understood that fully and completely.

Yet here they have been from day one when BO.....was flapping out how Historic his way of dealing with Iran was. Disputing some very key talking points that BO and his team have been using. Disputing what our MS media has stated. What other politicians have stated. It hasn't stopped and now they claim victory in taking on the 6 World powers. Despite two of them in their back pocket. So to speak.
The Iranian talk is just politics playing to the plebs.

Then I see Congress with more than enough votes to block this.
 
Not sure either. Their was a thread with a link detailing the agreement.
Never saved it.
Looking for it though.

I think Simplexity mentioned it somewhere, but I'm not certain where. I'm about to get to work, so I'll have to check back later. Should've been working a few hours ago...
 
What does that have to do with his comments today and to Reuters.....as he isn't speaking to his hardliners.

Just that Reuters has pointed out before that not unlike other nations, there's often a different message for home than abroad. And the "hard liners" recognise it as sop.
 
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