- Joined
- Oct 17, 2007
- Messages
- 11,862
- Reaction score
- 10,300
- Location
- New York
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Centrist
Just 24 hours in and Paul has already erred mightily.
Such is the risk from one's general lack of experience. He's currently serving his first term in the Senate. At the same time, he's still evolving in terms of his ideas and philosophy, with one foot proverbially tied to his father's ideas and his other toward the broader mainstream. It's a difficult transition, as he risks losing his father's libertarian-oriented base. That base is small but energetic and passionate. In the larger mainstream, he faces formidable opposition from such candidates as Jeb Bush. One of the big challenges with that transition is that he could be perceived by both his father's base and the mainstream as a somewhat hollow candidate, which would be a sort of worst-case outcome for him.
Personally, I don't see him winding up a serious contender for the nomination. He'll do better than the even more inexperienced and less-disciplined Ben Carson. He'll probably gain a higher share of votes in the early contests than his father did, but Scott Walker and Ted Cruz will probably be the strongest competitors for the most conservative part of the GOP while Jeb Bush commands the establishment. Walker, by virtue of his having executive experience and attempting to position himself as a leader who has demonstrated an ability to make tough choices, even if they are controversial, might have the edge on Cruz. However, Cruz's Super PACs have raised a lot of money early on, so Cruz will have some staying power. Cruz, like Paul, can be undisciplined at times. He can also be polarizing. If Cruz takes on an anti-GOP approach, he'll fade and as he does so, Walker could snap up those voters.
It's very early, so a lot can still happen. However, at this point in time, I am fairly confident though that Ben Carson will be a non-entity on account of his lack of leadership experience and often inflammatory comments. Senator Paul probably won't wind up a strong contender either on account of a combination of his lack of experience and extremely difficult transition needed to gain broad-based appeal. Governor Christie already imploded and stands little chance of regaining his earlier position, especially with Jeb Bush seen as the Establishment candidate and New Jersey's again bumpy finances.