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Thread: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    I'm fairly sure Khamenei was appraised. Beyond that however, is a guessing game.

    It's not much of a stretch to speculate that not everyone in the regime will be thrilled with the framework parameters.
    How do you know this?
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    How do you know this?
    I don't know anything for certain. Just sensible guesses using deductive reasoning and basic logic.

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    I don't know anything for certain. Just sensible guesses using deductive reasoning and basic logic.
    But to me basic logic would be that the Ayatollahs are directing the negotiations. If they aren't, then apparently there's more hope for Iran than people give credit.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    On the whole, I consider the JCPOA a fairly robust framework. As the agreement mentions however, "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"

    There remains much to be worked out in detail. I am not happy with the 1 year breakout period. I think this should be 18 months minimum. I am also not happy that a new UN Security Council resolution will have to be implemented. This allows Russia and China, who oftentimes take the Iranian position, to act as Iranian UNSC proxies. A murky "dispute resolution process" regarding significant non-compliance issues will also be implemented. What exactly does "significant" allude to in this regard?

    The Iranians have already termed a fact sheet published by the US State Department (OP link) spin ... because details have not yet been negotiated and wholly agreed upon.
    France has already said they were expecting stronger controls on Iran and, as you implied, Iran seems to be fully prepared to act on their version of the eventual deal.
    Their negotiator has been hailed a hero and given a damn parade.

    Under no reading or interpretation of these terms can anyone conclude Iran has committed to not developing a nuclear weapon.

    Postponement of a breakout is hardly of much comfort, especially when the sanctions will be effectively gone (any sanctions the USA may have kept in place will be laughed at) and Iran can just say nevermind we built one anyway at any time since inspections are a joke too.
    Better never than late.

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    I'm fairly sure Khamenei was appraised. Beyond that however, is a guessing game.

    It's not much of a stretch to speculate that not everyone in the regime will be thrilled with the framework parameters.
    You must be joking.
    You really believe Zarif is some kind of renegade?
    Better never than late.

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    France has already said they were expecting stronger controls on Iran and, as you implied, Iran seems to be fully prepared to act on their version of the eventual deal.
    Their negotiator has been hailed a hero and given a damn parade.

    Under no reading or interpretation of these terms can anyone conclude Iran has committed to not developing a nuclear weapon.

    Postponement of a breakout is hardly of much comfort, especially when the sanctions will be effectively gone (any sanctions the USA may have kept in place will be laughed at) and Iran can just say nevermind we built one anyway at any time since inspections are a joke too.
    Yes, the Iranians gave him a parade because they're thrilled that he played a role in ensuring that their country does not become a nuclear weapons power. Seems like a good thing. They also realise that without a deal, that freak in Israel begins bombing them. Of course he may well do that anyway.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Seems like a good place to work from, hopefully they'll actually agree to it.
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Well, certainly the customer is not an N-word.
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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    But to me basic logic would be that the Ayatollahs are directing the negotiations. If they aren't, then apparently there's more hope for Iran than people give credit.
    Are you telling us that *everyone* in the regime is aware of all negotiation nuances? Are you telling us that there are no regime hard-liners who oppose any concessions? Are you telling us that there are no hard-liners who prefer enduring the sanctions if the end result is an Iranian nuclear weapon? Are you telling us that the Iranian political spectrum is a unitary monolith?

    The regime hard-liners will have to be convinced to accept whatever Khamenei decides upon ... either by reason or by fiat.

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Seems like a good place to work from, hopefully they'll actually agree to it.
    Despite the naysayers and novitiates above, the framework is indeed a good platform to build upon.

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    Re: Text of agreement with Iran on its nuclear program

    The ultimate question I suppose, is whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will drink from the "poisoned cup" of peace in 2015 as his predecessor Ayatollah Khomeini claimed he did in 1989 to end the Iran/Iraq War.

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