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Thread: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    Are there any details to the incredibly broad statement? Is he talking about military bases?
    Khamenei has stated that military sites would be off-limits to international inspectors. From The New York Times:

    Iran’s supreme leader on Thursday challenged two of the United States’ bedrock principles in the nuclear negotiations, declaring that all economic sanctions would have to be lifted on the day any final agreement is signed and that military sites would be strictly off limits to foreign inspectors.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/wo...agreement.html

    If Iran insists on such a position, it would cripple a very important component of verification, as Iran would have carved out a "safe harbor" from which it could engage in prohibited nuclear activities. IMO, if Iran is genuinely serious about the peaceful purpose of its nuclear activities, it should permit inspections that could be conducted anytime and anywhere.

    Whether or not Khamenei is posturing remains to be seen. If he's serious about the above position on inspections, the P5+1 should reject any agreement, on account of a lack of verifiability.

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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by rocket88 View Post
    Well, with no deal they certainly will. Wasn't that the Republican strategy all along?
    No a better strategy is to PRETEND there's a deal, LIE about rhe framework and then tell Americans how awesome the Obama administration is.

    Seems to be John Kerry's stategy anyway.
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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by rocket88 View Post
    So the good news is we get exactly what you wanted-nothing!

    That's gonna make Israel safe.
    Time to turn to effective measures.

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." --HL Mencken

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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    No a better strategy is to PRETEND there's a deal, LIE about rhe framework and then tell Americans how awesome the Obama administration is.

    Seems to be John Kerry's stategy anyway.
    So what is the RW strategy? Assuming President Romney, what would he be doing about Iran? Wagging his finger menacingly?

    You didn't want a deal, and there you go. No deal. Which doesn't make Iran further away from a nuclear weapon.


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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    Time to turn to effective measures.
    Such as? Yes, lets have more effective measures. What would those be?


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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Khamenei has stated that military sites would be off-limits to international inspectors. From The New York Times:

    Iranís supreme leader on Thursday challenged two of the United Statesí bedrock principles in the nuclear negotiations, declaring that all economic sanctions would have to be lifted on the day any final agreement is signed and that military sites would be strictly off limits to foreign inspectors.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/wo...agreement.html

    If Iran insists on such a position, it would cripple a very important component of verification, as Iran would have carved out a "safe harbor" from which it could engage in prohibited nuclear activities. IMO, if Iran is genuinely serious about the peaceful purpose of its nuclear activities, it should permit inspections that could be conducted anytime and anywhere.

    Whether or not Khamenei is posturing remains to be seen. If he's serious about the above position on inspections, the P5+1 should reject any agreement, on account of a lack of verifiability.
    The problem with this, is that access to military sites (AKA the PMDS, Possible Military Dimensions) of Iran were never part of the P5+1 talks.... They are being handled directly by the IAEA, and Iran has provided 3 of the 5 areas to their PMD's.. It also doesnt help that the US military has stated that Iran gave up its military nuclear program in 2003.
    Just a democratic-socialist "Life is beautiful. Let the future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression, and violence, and enjoy it to the full."

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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    The problem with this, is that access to military sites (AKA the PMDS, Possible Military Dimensions) of Iran were never part of the P5+1 talks.... They are being handled directly by the IAEA, and Iran has provided 3 of the 5 areas to their PMD's.. It also doesnt help that the US military has stated that Iran gave up its military nuclear program in 2003.
    Given Iran's past deception, international inspectors need access anywhere, anytime. Otherwise, the agreement won't be verifiable. I don't believe the P5+1 or UN Security Council should rely on Iran's good faith, alone.

    Furthermore, such terms are required under UN Security Council Resolution 1696 which declares that the Security Council “...Demands... that Iran shall suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, to be verified by the IAEA." All such activities means every site wherever such activities might occur, military or otherwise. If Iran is truly committed to a peaceful nuclear energy program, it should have no difficulty allowing for such inspections. If, on the other hand, it seeks to retain strategic flexibility to pursue a weapons program, it will have grave difficulty with such terms. The weeks ahead, including whether Iran addresses the IAEA's two outstanding critical issues, will provide a lot of insight into Iran's intentions.

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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Given Iran's past deception, international inspectors need access anywhere, anytime. Otherwise, the agreement won't be verifiable. I don't believe the P5+1 or UN Security Council should rely on Iran's good faith, alone.
    Anywhere anytime? This simply isnt possible. All nuclear facilities, absolutely possible. Anywhere? Literally not possible. No country simply allows international officials or other officials access to anywhere they want... However to say that if we dont have access to 2 areas of the PMD issues (which I think the 2 remaining negotiated issues of the PMD's are I think one is about explosive detonators and one about neutron transport studies.

    Furthermore, such terms are required under UN Security Council Resolution 1696 which declares that the Security Council “...Demands... that Iran shall suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, to be verified by the IAEA."
    I realize this... Why do you think we are here today and Iran had international sanctions placed on it?

    All such activities means every site wherever such activities might occur, military or otherwise.
    No where does it state that....

    If Iran is truly committed to a peaceful nuclear energy program, it should have no difficulty allowing for such inspections. If, on the other hand, it seeks to retain strategic flexibility to pursue a weapons program, it will have grave difficulty with such terms. The weeks ahead, including whether Iran addresses the IAEA's two outstanding critical issues, will provide a lot of insight into Iran's intentions.
    "PMDs and the Final Nuclear Agreement
    Tying a comprehensive nuclear agreement to a resolution of the IAEA's investigation into the PMDs is unnecessary and risks derailing a deal.

    Expecting Iran to "confess" that it pursued a nuclear weapons program is unrealistic and unnecessary. After having spent years denying that it pursued nuclear weapons and having delivered a fatwa against nuclear weapons, Tehran's senior leaders cannot afford to admit that it hid a nuclear weapons program.

    In a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry, 354 members of Congress said that transparency on the PMD actions are necessary in order to establish a meaningful monitoring and verification system in a comprehensive deal.

    Resolution of the agency's investigation is not necessary to put in place a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime that will prevent Iran from pursuing a covert program to build nuclear weapon or deviating from a comprehensive nuclear deal.

    The IAEA's investigation into Iran's past nuclear activities related to weapons development is a separate process, and conditioning a nuclear deal on completion of the agency's investigation would delay and likely undermine the prospect for the conclusion of a comprehensive nuclear deal that limits Iran's nuclear potential and improves the international community's ability to detect and disrupt any potential future nuclear weapons-related effort.

    Stringent and intrusive monitoring and verification mechanisms under the terms of the Additional Protocol would give the IAEA access to all of Iran's nuclear sites at short notice and access to additional sites if the agency suspects nuclear activities may be talking place. The IAEA and the international community will be able to quickly detect and deter any attempt to pursue nuclear weapons, whether through a covert program or by using declared facilities. Such measures are only possible with the negotiation of a comprehensive nuclear agreement by the P5+1 and Iran."
    https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-br...uclear-Program
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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    Anywhere anytime? This simply isnt possible. All nuclear facilities, absolutely possible.
    This refers to areas where nuclear activities are being carried out or suspected of being carried out, including sites. Much more important than my view on verifiability, the President also such sites have to be open to IAEA inspection.

    From ABC News:

    The framework says sanctions put in place over Iran's nuclear program will be suspended once international monitors verify that Tehran is abiding by the limitations spelled out in the agreement. Rhodes said the International Atomic Energy Agency will have to inspect military sites.

    An essential part of the deal, he said, is "having the IAEA ability to inspect suspicious sites, no matter where they are."


    White House: Iran Deal Requires Phased Sanctions Removal - ABC News

    Tying a comprehensive nuclear agreement to a resolution of the IAEA's investigation into the PMDs is unnecessary and risks derailing a deal.

    I'm not suggesting that resolution of those issues be linked to an agreement. My point was that whether or not Iran is forthcoming on resolving those matters will provide much insight into Iran's intentions. The agreement itself will need to be specific, restrict nuclear activities to peaceful purposes (which would need to be detailed so that there is no ambiguity there), and subject to robust verification. Right now, it appears some significant gaps exist related to the timing of sanctions relief and, far more important IMO, verifiability. Should Iran insist on keeping military sites off limits to the IAEA, I believe that should be a deal-breaker. Moreover, it appears likely that the P5+1 will reject such limitations given the vital need for verifiability.

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    Re: Iranians See Victory, Hope for New Image in Nuclear Agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    Hardliners in both Iran and the United States will not be happy. Civilized people will be happy.

    Obama has proven yet again that good diplomacy works. Just think about what this man has done now: In less than one year, he has helped to thaw relations with two nations with whom we have had next to zero diplomatic ties for decades. Compare this progress with that of his predecessor!
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