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Thread: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    For those who are interested, the factsheet released by the U.S. Department of State is below:


    Below are the key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program that were decided in Lausanne, Switzerland. These elements form the foundation upon which the final text of the JCPOA will be written between now and June 30, and reflect the significant progress that has been made in discussions between the P5+1, the European Union, and Iran. Important implementation details are still subject to negotiation, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We will work to conclude the JCPOA based on these parameters over the coming months.

    Enrichment
    • Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge.

    • Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years.

    • Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.

    • All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment.

    • Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.

    • Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework.

    Iran will convert its facility at Fordow so that it is no longer used to enrich uranium
    • Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years.

    • Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center.

    • Iran has agreed to not conduct research and development associated with uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years.

    • Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordow for 15 years.

    • Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.


    Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.
    • Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.

    • Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.

    • Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.

    • For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.

    Inspections and Transparency
    • The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies.

    • Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program.

    • Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.

    • Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance.

    • All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.

    • A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure.
    And you think they will follow this to a T?

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by CRUE CAB View Post
    And you think they will follow this to a T?
    Their history says no, but a leopard can change it's spots.

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by CRUE CAB View Post
    And you think they will follow this to a T?
    Performance becomes an issue once an agreement is actually signed. One currently has a set of understandings, with sufficient ambiguity, to lead each side to interpret things in a different fashion. The contrast between the Iranian Foreign Minister's tweets and the U.S. factsheet highlight this issue. The understanding, which falls short of a signed credible framework agreement, offers a basis for continuing the negotiations. There remain no guarantees of a final agreement, as difficult issues remain to be resolved.

    As one example, the factsheet states, "Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center." How the P5+1 define "peaceful" research and how Iran defines it could differ widely. Moreover, some civil research could, in fact, produce knowledge that is also applicable to a military dimension. UNSC Res. 1696 prohibited nuclear R&D. The understanding falls short of a full restriction. The concrete substance related to R&D has not yet been negotiated.

    Finally, given that Iran has not been forthcoming with the IAEA in the past e.g., there remain two unresolved critical issues, and Iran had built a secret facility, one should be wary of Iranian compliance. Very robust verification will need to be part of any final agreement. The understandings provide some general provisions, but the actual agreement will need to be very specific.

    In the end, I believe all the parties had too much to lose not to reach some kind of understanding to allow the diplomacy to proceed. I'm not surprised that the understandings were reached past the initial 3/31 deadline. Now the remaining three months will present a far more difficult challenge, as general understandings, some of which allow both sides to interpret matters differently, will need to be transformed into concrete and specific terms. Ambiguity allowed the parties to continue the talks. Specificity may blow things up if the parties' differences cannot be bridged.

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Good.

    Unlike most people it seems, I was not the slightest bit worried about Iran getting nukes (even if they had them - they were not going to ever use them anyway).

    So this embargo nonsense can finally - maybe - end.

    All embargoes do is hurt the poorest of the country affected...the rich/politicians usually are unaffected.
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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    Here is the actual deal: http://www.armscontrol.org/files/Par...2015-04-02.pdf
    I dont see how this is a bad deal. A lot of international oversight, implementing certain restrictions, reducing centrifuges, extending the "breakout time", agreeing to halt enrichment, allowing IAEA access to all nuclear facilities, inspectors to all uranium mines, redesigning Arak to ensure that its not used for weapon purposes, halting and not building any new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors... I mean I dont see how this is a bad thing.. But then again many here would state even if Iran said, "we will blow up all our nuclear facilities" they would not accept that as a deal simply because of OBAMA!!!
    Looks like a good deal to me.

    Thanks, Obama!
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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    The first halfway near-decent criticism I have seen of the deal yet. Well done.

    It is my understanding that the deal, however temporal, is based on actual verifications, not blind trust. That alone changes the equation.

    As does the fact that both sides were able to tell their own hardliners to go **** themselves.
    You are kidding yourself if you think anyone inside Iran told the hardliners there to go **** themselves. If the deal is ever accepted it will be because it is what the hardliners want, not that they were somehow overruled by supposed moderates.

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by azgreg View Post
    In the words of Pat Buchanan "We could take care of Iran in an afternoon."
    When Conservatives Tangle: Pat Buchanan Spars With 'Hysterical' Sean Hannity Over Iran | CNS News
    ....Just like we took care of Iraq (1/10th the size, sophistication and military power of Iran) in an afternoon....

    That kind of idiotic statement and thinking is exactly why Buchanan was a laughing stock as a Presidential candidate and remains a 2nd rate political analyst.

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Another point from the factsheet that remains undefined, but is critical:

    Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.

    The issue concerns how Iran will reduce its stockpile. There is no language that the enriched uranium would be shipped out of the country. There is no language to deal with an internal reduction if the material isn't shipped out of the country. This represents another possible stumbling block during the final negotiations. Shipment outside of the country offers stronger safeguards than an internal reduction.

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by JANFU View Post
    Iran needs this more than the US. Iran knows that Obama must have points clearly laid out in order to prevent further sanctions imposed by Congress.
    Congress can't unilaterally impose more sanctions. The sanctions only work if they are asserted by most of the 1st world countries. If there is no deal; there will most likely be no more sanctions.

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    Re: E.U. and Iran Announce Framework for Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by JANFU View Post
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/03/wo...=top-news&_r=0



    Hmm, another 3 months.
    Sanctions lifted as Iran complies?? Interesting - Complies to what?
    What will Congress think?
    After reading the media note publishing the framework of the preliminary agreement
    I was surprised. I only read it as an interested and skeptical citizen and not in professional intent, but it does seem much, much better than I had expected.

    Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program

    Of course, we must wait and see how the frame ist filled out. But at this point?

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