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Thread: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

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    U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    From today's edition of The New York Times:

    The American officials were pushing back against public statements made on Sunday by Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, that seemed to rule out an accord under which uranium would be sent abroad...

    American officials did not criticize Mr. Araqchi’s public comments, which he made to several news organizations. But they insisted that the issue had never been decided in the closed-door talks, even tentatively.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/31/wo...ear-talks.html

    That narrative has some problems and it may well be intended to mask fundamental differences in order to announce a framework deal albeit what increasingly likely appears to be a weak one. If one goes back to last year, one finds that a tentative arrangement involving the shipment of uranium to Russia had been reached. Moreover in the days and weeks that followed, none of the U.S. team had denied such an arrangement.

    With regard to the tentative agreement, the November 3, 2014 issue of The New York Times reported:

    Iran has tentatively agreed to ship much of its huge stockpile of uranium to Russia if it reaches a broader nuclear deal with the West, according to officials and diplomats involved in the negotiations, potentially a major breakthrough in talks that have until now been deadlocked...

    The chief American negotiator, Wendy R. Sherman, alluded to this possible solution to the uranium issue in a recent speech in which she said that “we have made impressive progress on issues that originally seemed intractable.” But Ms. Sherman, who on Monday was named acting deputy secretary of state, has refused to discuss any details of the role Russia could play, saying that negotiations, like mushrooms, “do best in the dark.” As a result, the officials and diplomats would discuss the talks only on the condition of anonymity.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/wo...ble-boost.html

    In sum, Iran's apparent reversal is a potentially major development that undermines the possibility of a credible agreement. The absence of such a provision is a substantive setback and describing its being incorporated in a final agreement as a "possibility" doesn't materially change the nature of the setback.

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    The more we understand this deal, the more we can only conclude it is worthless.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Two classes of materials were to be re-processed in Russia; spent fuel rods, and a quantity of Uranium hexafloride (UF6) already enriched to 20%.

    The Iranians now want to re-process the spent fuel rods themselves and locally dilute (down-blend) the 20% UF6.

    They reportedly have agreed to a maximum of 6,000 centrifuges, but it is unclear what centrifuges will be allowed. Their new prototype centrifuge is 16x more efficient than their current IR-2 model. Thus, they could theoretically increase enrichment production by a factor of 16:1 even with a cap of 6,000. This is far more than necessary for internal power generation, research, medical, industry, etc.


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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From today's edition of The New York Times:



    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/31/wo...ear-talks.html

    That narrative has some problems and it may well be intended to mask fundamental differences in order to announce a framework deal albeit what increasingly likely appears to be a weak one. If one goes back to last year, one finds that a tentative arrangement involving the shipment of uranium to Russia had been reached. Moreover in the days and weeks that followed, none of the U.S. team had denied such an arrangement.

    With regard to the tentative agreement, the November 3, 2014 issue of The New York Times reported:

    Iran has tentatively agreed to ship much of its huge stockpile of uranium to Russia if it reaches a broader nuclear deal with the West, according to officials and diplomats involved in the negotiations, potentially a major breakthrough in talks that have until now been deadlocked...

    The chief American negotiator, Wendy R. Sherman, alluded to this possible solution to the uranium issue in a recent speech in which she said that “we have made impressive progress on issues that originally seemed intractable.” But Ms. Sherman, who on Monday was named acting deputy secretary of state, has refused to discuss any details of the role Russia could play, saying that negotiations, like mushrooms, “do best in the dark.” As a result, the officials and diplomats would discuss the talks only on the condition of anonymity.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/wo...ble-boost.html

    In sum, Iran's apparent reversal is a potentially major development that undermines the possibility of a credible agreement. The absence of such a provision is a substantive setback and describing its being incorporated in a final agreement as a "possibility" doesn't materially change the nature of the setback.
    We just have to be clear in our minds that Iran is trying to get the weapons and the sanctions lifted. To do this they need a deal that allows them to do as much as possible legally, so that they do not have to hide very much from the few inspectors they allow into the country later.
    We saw how this haggling is done in Iraq. They will get the sanctions lowered and then play games with the UN.

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    At any rate, the administration has maintained all along that any deal agreed upon will have two basic tenants. One, Iran will be denied the construction of nuclear weapons, and two, historically rigorous inspections and monitoring to ensure number one.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Two classes of materials were to be re-processed in Russia; spent fuel rods, and a quantity of Uranium hexafloride (UF6) already enriched to 20%.

    The Iranians now want to re-process the spent fuel rods themselves and locally dilute (down-blend) the 20% UF6.

    They reportedly have agreed to a maximum of 6,000 centrifuges, but it is unclear what centrifuges will be allowed. Their new prototype centrifuge is 16x more efficient than their current IR-2 model. Thus, they could theoretically increase enrichment production by a factor of 16:1 even with a cap of 6,000. This is far more than necessary for internal power generation, research, medical, industry, etc.
    From what I can see, Iran has gotten most of what it wanted and can finish the work on the bomb in secret.

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    At any rate, the administration has maintained all along that any deal agreed upon will have two basic tenants. One, Iran will be denied the construction of nuclear weapons, and two, historically rigorous inspections and monitoring to ensure number one.
    Oh yes! I recall those red lines, or were they drawn in the desert sand? The Administration has uttered so many, I forget the details.

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    Oh yes! I recall those red lines, or were they drawn in the desert sand? The Administration has uttered so many, I forget the details.
    When the deal is done, and the ink is dry, if either of those two are absent, then I'll raise hell with you, deal?
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    When the deal is done, and the ink is dry, if either of those two are absent, then I'll raise hell with you, deal?
    If I get, what I want, you can raise hell with me.


    PS: We need to define, what "denied" is to mean here. As it stands right now, the IAEA membership "denies" Iran "construction of a nuclear weapon" already and the Security Council has already ordered close inspections.

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    Re: U.S. Says Shipping Uranium Out of Iran Is Still Part of Possible Nuclear Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    If I get, what I want, you can raise hell with me.


    PS: We need to define, what "denied" is to mean here. As it stands right now, the IAEA membership "denies" Iran "construction of a nuclear weapon" already and the Security Council has already ordered close inspections.
    Not sure what you mean with that.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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